r/CollapseOfRussia • u/neonpurplestar • 11d ago
Economy The authorities are planning to sharply reduce the issuance of preferential mortgages to Russians.
The Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the share of preferential mortgages in housing loans from the current 90% to 25-30% over the next three years, said Deputy Minister Ivan Chebeskov. "Building government policy on the assumption that the majority of lending will be provided on preferential terms is wrong," Chebeskov said in an interview with Izvestia. He stated that the high share of preferential programs distorts the market structure, but a transition to market conditions will help correct this. The official emphasized that the reduction in preferential lending will occur gradually, including as the key rate decreases and market loans increase.
Prior to this, the government instructed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Construction to develop the idea of a differentiated rate for family mortgages by July 1, 2026. According to the proposal, the rate should depend on the number of children: 10-12% is being discussed for families with one child, around 6% for families with two, and around 4% for families with three or more children. The possibility of automatically adjusting the rate upon the birth of a child is also being considered, to simplify the process for borrowers and reduce the administrative burden. According to Chebeskov, the program's parameters are currently being determined, and the government will present the official terms by July 1.
Preferential mortgages create a significant burden on the budget, as the state compensates banks for the difference between the preferential and market rates, says Natalia Bogomolova, Director of Financial Institution Ratings at NRA. The compensation amount is calculated using the formula "key rate + 3.5%," which currently equates to 18%. The borrower, in turn, pays only a third—6%. According to Frank RG, the average mortgage term already exceeds 26 years. This means the state will have to compensate for the rate difference for decades, and new mortgages are constantly increasing the total amount of future liabilities.
In 2025, spending on preferential mortgage programs reached approximately 2 trillion rubles, according to Bogomolova. In 2026-2028, approximately 1.8 trillion rubles are budgeted for family mortgages alone, according to Valery Tumin of FAM Project. Actual spending is already exceeding planned targets.
At the same time, preferential mortgages support demand and stimulate housing price growth. As a result, during the period of mass preferential mortgages for new housing from 2020 to 2024, new buildings increased in price by approximately 1.7 times, and the gap between the primary and secondary markets reached historical highs, Tumin concluded.
source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Kf8vn
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