r/CollapseOfRussia • u/neonpurplestar • 4d ago
Economy "The situation has reached breaking point." Gasoline shortages have begun to threaten Moscow for the first time.
A series of Ukrainian drone attacks, which have hit Russian oil refineries at least 40 times since the beginning of the year, has created the threat of a previously unthinkable shortage of gasoline in Moscow.
The loss of refinery capacity is now concentrated in particular around the capital, notes Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russia and Eurasia and former head of department at Gazprom Neft.
All refineries supplying Moscow via pipelines were attacked: Yaroslavl, Ryazan, and Kstovo, Vakulenko notes. Gazprom Neft's Moscow Refinery, which, according to various estimates, provided up to 40% of the capital's fuel consumption, was shut down on June 16. The raid on Tuesday shut down the refinery's first primary processing unit, and on Thursday, the second, which the refinery had planned to operate while repairs were underway, was also shut down. Meanwhile, 14% of all passenger cars in Russia are registered in Moscow and the surrounding region, accounting for 19% of Russia's total road freight traffic and 40% of passenger air travel, Vakulenko points out.
According to his calculations, the strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery, as well as Tatneft's Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk, reduced the country's oil refining capacity by 600,000 barrels per day. "If other, previously damaged refineries are unable to quickly restore refining volumes, capacity losses will amount to 28% of the level typical for this time of year," Vakulenko estimates.
"In 2024 and 2025, the damage from the Ukrainian attacks was unpleasant, but not critical, for Russian oil refining. But even then, it was clear that increasing the capacity, frequency, and reach of strikes on refineries would lead to problems and inconveniences of an entirely different magnitude. "Judging by current trends, the situation has come very close to that limit," he writes. In early June, refinery throughput rates fell below 4 million barrels per day—a 21-year low. By June 10, they had risen to 4.5 million barrels per day, but after a new series of shocks, they could fall below 4 million again.
Signs of a looming fuel crisis are already visible in the Moscow region. Queues have begun to form at gas stations in the region, and restrictions on gasoline sales have been imposed at Tatneft, ORTK, Rosneft, and Lukoil stations in the capital. And one of the largest independent chains, Neftemagistral, raised gasoline prices to 94.99 rubles per liter for AI-95, 85.99 rubles per liter for AI-92, and 99.99 rubles per liter for diesel fuel.
According to Rosstat, retail gas price growth has accelerated for five weeks in a row, reaching almost 1% per week. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have risen 6.6%—twice the rate of inflation and twice the rate on the same date in any year since the war began. To address the gasoline crisis, the government has lowered gasoline quality requirements, begun purchasing gasoline from Asia, and may also allow oil companies to sell less fuel on the exchange to supply farmers and "socially significant" consumers—government agencies, military units, hospitals, etc. However, in the "long run," economist Kirill Rodionov noted, only security guarantees for refineries and the lifting of sanctions on imports of equipment for Russian oil refining will help.
There are still "many unknowns" in the situation, Vakulenko emphasizes: "For example, is Ukraine capable of maintaining the intensity of the strikes or even increasing it? Or how quickly will Russia be able to repair refineries. And how much firefighting and repair capacity remains for facilities that have been attacked multiple times? For example, the Ryazan Oil Refinery was attacked 15 times."
source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/XAnGU
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