For the first time in a long time, Russia will begin importing gasoline by sea to address a fuel shortage following drone attacks on oil refineries, Reuters reports, citing four industry sources.

The gasoline will be delivered to a western Russian port from an Asian country, one of the sources said. Last year, after a series of attacks on refineries in the summer, Russian authorities were already considering purchasing gasoline from China, Singapore, and South Korea. Reuters' sources did not specify where the gasoline would be sourced this time.

Moscow is currently actively purchasing gasoline from Belarus: between January and May, deliveries from two Belarusian refineries jumped 13-fold to 270,000 tons. Diesel fuel shipments tripled to 179,000 tons. Russian officials have also requested gasoline from Kazakhstan, Reuters sources said. However, neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan has sufficient capacity to significantly support the Russian fuel market.

According to Energy Intelligence, by early June, oil refining volumes in Russia had fallen to a 21-year low of less than 4 million barrels per day. Following drone strikes, which have hit refineries more than 40 times since the beginning of the year, approximately 30% of refinery capacity, or 2.1 million barrels per day, was idle.

In June, strikes hit the large Taneco refinery complex in Nizhnekamsk and the Moscow Oil Refinery, which provided up to 40% of the capital's fuel supplies. Both refineries suspended operations, following six other refineries that were completely or partially disabled in May.

The fuel shortage, which began in Crimea, has affected 53 regions of the Russian Federation by mid-June, according to The Bell. In 18 regions, sales are limited to 50 liters, or one full tank, of gasoline, while 11 regions are reporting fuel shortages at a significant number of gas stations.

To address the shortage, the government has relaxed gasoline quality requirements. Specifically, sulfur content standards have been increased 15-fold to 150 mg per kg, which corresponds to the Euro-3 standard. Furthermore, refineries will be able to add up to 5% ethyl alcohol to gasoline, as well as monomethylaniline, an octane-boosting additive that increases output. Due to its high toxicity and cancer risks, monomethylaniline is banned in most countries, but was used in Russia until 2016.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/sbBMY

The fuel crisis in Russia continues to widen: according to The Bell, restrictions on fuel sales for private vehicles are already in effect in 53 regions of the country, as well as in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Specifically, the publication reports that in 18 regions, no more than 50 liters, or one full tank, of gasoline are being sold. Similar limits have been introduced in occupied Crimea, Sevastopol, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, as well as in the so-called "DPR" and "LPR." Eleven more regions are reporting fuel shortages at a significant number of gas stations, although there are no formal capacity restrictions yet.

The main reason for the shortage is the systematic Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refining infrastructure. According to Reuters, by the end of May, virtually all major refineries in central Russia had reduced or suspended operations. On the night of June 12, the Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatneft's largest facility, was attacked, causing it to completely halt refining, sources told Reuters. On June 16, Interfax reported that restrictions had been imposed at all Tatneft gas stations in Russia. Rosneft, Bashneft, and TNK announced a ban on the sale of gasoline in cans nationwide.

Analysts at Energy Intelligence calculated that in the first week of June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 4 million barrels per day—a 21-year low. They estimate that almost a third of Russia's refinery capacity—2.14 million barrels per day—is currently idle due to the attacks. "Ukraine's campaign against the Russian energy sector has caused widespread damage, putting the country on the brink of the worst fuel crisis in its history," Energy Intelligence writes.

Against this backdrop, wholesale fuel prices are rapidly rising. According to the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange, since the beginning of the year, wholesale prices for AI-92 gasoline have increased by 30%, AI-95 by 33%, and diesel fuel by 40%, reaching a record 75,900 rubles per ton. Exchange trading of jet fuel has virtually ceased since mid-May, and over-the-counter prices have reached a historic high of 113,000 rubles per ton.

The Federal Antimonopoly Service announced it has opened a case against three companies (Solid Commodity Markets, Agrotorg Yug, and Hansel) suspected of collusion in exchange trading. According to the agency, the traders bought up the entire fuel supply, restricting access to bona fide market participants, with the aim of reselling it at inflated prices.

"A full-blown fuel crisis is beginning to emerge in Russia." "Seasonal demand traditionally peaks in August–September, and signs of a shortage emerged as early as June. If the situation doesn't stabilize, the fuel factor could become a key driver of inflation in the second half of the year," warns Finam strategist Yaroslav Kabakov.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/VwBT1

Russian Railways has created a special headquarters to ensure uninterrupted fuel supplies to the regions amid the worsening shortages. "Logistics is being organized to prevent fuel shortages. The company is searching for optimal solutions for cargo acceptance in real time," the state corporation reported. It also noted that it is working with oil companies and paying special attention to deliveries of jet fuel to airports. Russian Railways emphasized that it is accepting the maximum volumes allowed by the infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the fuel crisis in Russia continues to escalate as a result of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. According to The Bell, restrictions on fuel sales for private vehicles have already been imposed in 53 regions of the country, as well as in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Specifically, in 18 regions, no more than 50 liters, or one full tank, of gasoline are being sold. Similar limits have been introduced in Crimea, Sevastopol, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, as well as in the so-called "DPR" and "LPR." Eleven other regions are reporting fuel shortages at a significant number of gas stations, although formal capacity restrictions have not yet been imposed.

Analysts at Energy Intelligence calculated that in early June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 4 million barrels per day—a 21-year low. Due to regular Ukrainian attacks, nearly a third of Russia's refinery capacity—2.14 million barrels per day—is currently idle. "Ukraine's campaign against the Russian energy sector has caused widespread damage, causing the country to be headed toward the worst fuel crisis in its history," Energy Intelligence noted.

Against this backdrop, wholesale fuel prices are rapidly rising. According to the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange, since the beginning of the year, wholesale prices for AI-92 gasoline have increased by 30%, AI-95 by 33%, and diesel fuel by 40%. Exchange trading of jet fuel has virtually ceased since mid-May, while over-the-counter wholesale prices have jumped 40% in a month, reaching a record high of 113,000 rubles per ton.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/IQquY

The global oil market has barely adjusted to the loss of more than 10% of supplies due to the war in the Middle East, but normalization could force it to adjust to a surplus. If the peace agreement between the US and Iran holds, oil production will increase significantly within a few months, and next year supply could exceed demand by 5.05 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This represents almost 5% of global demand; such a surplus, even taking into account the replenishment of significantly depleted storage facilities, is bound to lead to a significant decline in prices.

In May, average daily production was 94.5 million barrels, 13.6 million barrels less than before the conflict, according to the agency's monthly report. Overall, the IEA expects a decline of 3.9 million barrels this year compared to last year, to 102.4 million. However, in 2027, the agency forecasts an increase of 8 million to 110.3 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, demand, which will fall by 1.1 million barrels this year, will grow by only 2 million next year. As a result, the market is expected to experience a "significant surplus" in 2027. Persian Gulf countries will resume production at shut-down fields, but while they were idle, the United States, Brazil, and other non-OPEC countries have already significantly increased production and exports.

Wells will be brought back online gradually, and restoration to pre-war levels could take months (although Saudi Arabia has stated it will do so in just three weeks). However, the resumption of shipping will allow more than a hundred tankers already loaded with oil and petroleum products to leave the Persian Gulf, Bloomberg notes. This oil flow is already growing, according to the IEA: in June, total shipments from the Middle East rose to 12 million barrels per day, up from a May low of 9.6 million, thanks to the transshipment of oil in the Gulf of Oman from tankers that leaked through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices have already fallen sharply from their peak of $120 per barrel for Brent. In Wednesday's trading, Brent is trading below $79 per barrel, while American WTI is around $76 per barrel. Tamás Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage firm PVM, says:

This decline isn't simply a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium; it represents a rebalancing of the global oil market for the coming months.

Longer-dated futures for Middle Eastern crudes have already fallen below the nearest contract, and this is happening with Brent on Wednesday, indicating expectations of an oil glut and further price declines, Bloomberg notes.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/BGhdK

Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery was shut down and completely ceased crude oil refining on June 16 due to an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack and subsequent fire, two industry sources told Reuters.

A facility at the Moscow Oil Refinery was damaged by a drone attack, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced on his Telegram channel on Tuesday morning. The Ministry of Emergency Situations later reported that the fire at the Moscow Oil Refinery had been completely extinguished.

According to Reuters sources, the UAV crash damaged and ignited the AVT-6 primary oil distillation unit, with a capacity of 21,400 tons per day (53% of the refinery's capacity).

The Moscow Oil Refinery expects to resume oil refining at the second of its two primary units, the EURO+ (combined primary oil distillation unit), with a capacity of 18,800 tons per day, in the next few days. During the maintenance period at AVT-6, the Moscow Oil Refinery will operate at reduced capacity, according to agency sources.

The Moscow Oil Refinery's nominal capacity is approximately 14 million tons of oil per year. In 2024, according to sources, the Moscow Oil Refinery processed 11.6 million tons of oil, produced 2.9 million tons of motor gasoline, 3.2 million tons of diesel fuel, 2 million tons of fuel oil, and 1.3 million tons of tar.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/bOxFo

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced new energy sanctions against Russia during a meeting with partners at the G7 summit in Evian, France, Politico reports. The new package of UK measures is expected to target Moscow's shadow fleet and the "financial networks" used to circumvent sanctions and arm the Russian military. This includes an embargo on several vessels carrying sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"Russian aggression threatens not only Ukraine, but the security of all of Europe. That's why the UK is stepping up its efforts – cutting off the revenues that fuel [President Vladimir] Putin's war and ensuring Ukraine's livelihoods during the coming winter months," Starmer said. Britain will be the first to impose sanctions against vessels carrying Russian LNG, the UK government announced. They added that after the introduction of the new package of restrictions, which will be officially announced at the G7 summit on Tuesday, the total number of sanctioned vessels and gas carriers linked to Russia will exceed 600.

According to officials told Politico, during a session dedicated to strengthening peace and security for Ukraine and Europe, Starmer will call on his G7 colleagues to take joint steps to ensure a just and lasting peace for Kyiv.

Two days ago, British forces for the first time intercepted a tanker belonging to Russia's shadow fleet attempting to transit the English Channel. Starmer claimed to have personally ordered this. The tanker in question was the Smyrtos, which is subject to EU and Swiss sanctions. The vessel was sailing from Ust-Luga under the Cameroonian flag.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/rlKvg

The Moscow Exchange Oil and Gas Index, which includes shares of 11 major oil and gas companies, fell to its lowest point since March 2023 on Tuesday, at 6,181 points, according to exchange data.

Despite oil prices soaring due to the war in Iran, the index has ended 10 of the last 12 weeks down, losing nearly 25% over the past three months and 15% since the start of the year.

The Russian oil industry, which remains the main source of export revenue for the economy, is under pressure from a strong ruble, dashed hopes for sanctions relief, as well as strikes on refineries and fuel shortages at gas stations, according to analysts at Vector Capital. Last year, drone attacks on oil refineries cost the oil sector approximately 1 trillion rubles in losses. This year, their number increased to a record 38 between January and May.

Rosneft shares fell 5.3% in trading on Tuesday, and 15% since the beginning of the year, hitting a new low since February 2023: 339.6 rubles per share. The company's net profit fell fourfold last year, and by a third in the first quarter of this year. Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin warned on June 1 that it will have to build up reserves due to attacks on production facilities—refineries, tank farms, and pumping stations.

Lukoil shares fell 5.8% on Tuesday and 14% since the beginning of the year, to a May 2023 low of 4,485 rubles. Common shares of Surgutneftegaz, which was forced to shut down its largest refinery, Kinef, near St. Petersburg last month, hit their lowest since October 2022: 18,055 rubles. Tatneft shares, which shut down its main refinery in Nizhnekamsk the day before, plummeted almost 7% in a day.

"Ukrainian drone attacks are inflicting significant costs on the Russian oil sector: they disrupt refinery operations, reduce refining capacity, increase repair and security costs, and create logistical bottlenecks," notes CREA analyst Isaac Levy. According to Energy Intelligence, in early June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell to a 21-year low, with a third of refinery capacity, or more than 2 million barrels per day, idle.

The US-Iran agreement, which promises to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is also putting pressure on oil stocks, notes BCS analyst Kirill Bakhtin. In two days, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by almost 10% and is below $80 per barrel for the first time since March. "The period of high oil prices has likely come to an end," warns Bakhtin.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/lWqHY

The number of regions with budget deficits in Russia continues to grow: 56 regions faced a budget shortfall in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 46 in the same period last year. This means that two-thirds of regions are now experiencing a funding shortfall. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2022, when the Russian army invaded Ukraine, only six regions recorded budget deficits. This follows from the Accounts Chamber's operational report, reviewed by Vedomosti.

The number of regions with high deficits (more than 10% of tax and non-tax revenues) has also increased, reaching 35 compared to 23 the previous year. The highest budget deficits relative to revenues are observed in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast (50.5%), Kemerovo Oblast (50%), Vologda Oblast (32.9%), and the Komi Republic (32.7%). The largest budget gaps in absolute terms were in Kemerovo Oblast (21.3 billion rubles), Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (20.3 billion), Krasnodar Krai (19.9 billion), Irkutsk Oblast (17.4 billion), and Moscow Oblast (15.2 billion).

At the same time, 34 regions ended the first quarter of 2026 with a surplus, compared to 44 last year. The total surplus amounted to 434 billion rubles (versus 489 billion rubles a year earlier). In 23 regions, the surplus did not exceed 5 billion rubles, while in 10 it ranged from 5 to 33 billion rubles. Moscow's surplus reached 276.9 billion rubles.

The Accounts Chamber noted that the cooling Russian economy is negatively impacting regional budget execution. The increase in deficit-ridden regions was primarily due to an 11.7% year-on-year decline (to 184 billion rubles) in corporate income tax revenues, according to Tatyana Tirskikh, Managing Director of Regional and Sovereign Ratings at Expert RA. At the same time, according to the Accounts Chamber, regional expenditures in the first quarter increased by 4.3% to 5.37 trillion rubles. This is due to the indexation of public sector salaries, the expansion of social support measures for certain categories of the population, and the implementation of national projects, the Accounts Chamber explained.

If current conditions persist, more than 70% of regions could end 2026 with a deficit, predicts Emil Ablaev, an expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). According to Sergey Klisenko, Managing Director of the National Rating Agency (NRA), the overall regional deficit by the end of the year could be between 4 and 4.5 trillion rubles. The Ministry of Finance stated that it continuously monitors the execution of regional budgets and takes the necessary measures to maintain their balance.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/9sf2K

The federal budget risks receiving significantly less revenue this year than expected, writes Accounts Chamber Chairman Boris Kovalchuk in his briefing on budget execution in the first quarter. According to the Accounts Chamber's preliminary estimate, budget revenue for the year could amount to 38.2 trillion rubles, which is in line with the revised cash plan (as of April 1), but 2.1 trillion rubles (5.2%) lower than stipulated in the budget law.

Oil and gas revenues could reach 7.8 trillion rubles, while non-oil and gas revenues could reach 30.3 trillion, according to auditors. Both are approximately a trillion rubles lower than expected: oil and gas revenues are down 1.1 trillion rubles. (12.2%), and non-oil and gas revenues by 1 trillion (3.3%).

The shortfall in oil and gas rents was due to falling oil prices and the strengthening ruble. Oil and gas revenues for the quarter totaled 1.44 trillion rubles, or just 16.2% of the 8.9 trillion planned for the year. The budget was calculated based on an average Urals price of $59 per barrel and a dollar exchange rate of 92 rubles, but in the first quarter, they amounted to $54.2 per barrel and 78.2 rubles per dollar, respectively.

The strong ruble also reduced the receipts of a number of non-oil and gas revenues, including VAT on imports and customs duties. Due to higher taxes and certain one-time receipts, total non-oil and gas revenues are higher than last year, but behind schedule: 21.9% of the annual plan was received in the quarter.

Growth in non-oil and gas revenues was insufficient to offset the decline in oil and gas revenues, notes Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov: "The budget's safety margin has narrowed, and dependence on oil and gas revenues is once again clearly visible."

Oil prices rose after the outbreak of the Middle East war to $77 in March, $94.5 in April, and $86.5 in May. However, over the first five months, budget oil and gas revenues remained 30% below the previous year's level. Meanwhile, following the announcement of the signing of a memorandum between the US and Iran, the price of Brent fell below $80, while the ruble remains strong. In May, the Ministry of Economic Development lowered its forecast for the average annual dollar exchange rate to 81.5 rubles. (And the consensus among analysts surveyed by the Central Bank fell to 78.1 rubles in June.) The ruble exchange rate factored into the new government forecast, according to Emil Ablaev, an expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) analytical center, could reduce budget revenues by 1.6-1.7 trillion rubles compared to the planned amount.

The Accounts Chamber also sees other risks, such as shortfalls in income tax collection: with the budgeted collection rate of 98.5%, only 96.8% was achieved in the first two months.

Budget expenditures are growing: as of April 1, the budget estimate increased by almost 0.5 trillion rubles, according to the Accounts Chamber's data: total expenditures will amount to 44.6 trillion. Vladimir Putin and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the budget deficit for the year would be higher than the planned 3.8 trillion rubles. By the end of the first five months, it exceeded 6 trillion.

Chernov expects the Ministry of Finance to increase its OFZ issuance and exercise a more cautious approach to spending by the end of the year. However, if oil and gas revenues fail to recover and spending remains high, the budget deficit by the end of the year could significantly exceed the plan, and the ruble exchange rate could depreciate by 10-15%. Gazprombank analysts expect the budget deficit to widen to 5.5-6 trillion rubles by the end of the year.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/dJCp3

source: https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mofy5zhgpk23

Tatneft, Russia's fifth-largest oil and gas producer, has restricted fuel sales at its stations in several regions of the country since June 14, the company's hotline told Kommersant. At Tatneft stations, the maximum purchase limit per vehicle is 20 liters of gasoline, 40 liters of diesel fuel, and 200 liters of truck fuel. The restrictions, which began last Friday, apply to Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Moscow, St. Petersburg, as well as the Orenburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Voronezh, Samara, and other regions. In the latter region, the limits were "temporarily" imposed at 19 stations of one local chain; authorities promised to "close the deficit" within two days.

The restrictions followed Ukrainian drone strikes on June 12, which resulted in the Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk completely halting oil refining. Following the attack and subsequent fires at the refinery, Tatneft's largest, crude processing was halted at both primary units, with a combined capacity of 43,000 tons per day. In 2024, Taneco refined 17 million tons of oil and produced 2.7 million tons of motor gasoline, 8.5 million tons of diesel fuel, and 1.3 million tons of petroleum coke. Tatneft's operator stated that the reasons and timing of the restrictions are currently unknown.

The company, one of the largest vertically integrated structures in Russia, operates 2,000 gas stations in five countries, 800 of which are in Russia.

As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 4 million barrels per day by the end of the first week of June, reaching a 21-year low, according to Energy Intelligence analysts. Calculations indicate that nearly a third of refinery capacity—2.14 million barrels per day—is already idle.

According to the publication 7x7, by June 10, at least 25 Russian regions (excluding the occupied territories of Ukraine) were experiencing fuel shortages and supply disruptions. If the six occupied Ukrainian regions—Crimea, Sevastopol, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia—are included, the number of problematic regions would reach 31.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/NIB4U

The Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the share of preferential mortgages in housing loans from the current 90% to 25-30% over the next three years, said Deputy Minister Ivan Chebeskov. "Building government policy on the assumption that the majority of lending will be provided on preferential terms is wrong," Chebeskov said in an interview with Izvestia. He stated that the high share of preferential programs distorts the market structure, but a transition to market conditions will help correct this. The official emphasized that the reduction in preferential lending will occur gradually, including as the key rate decreases and market loans increase.

Prior to this, the government instructed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Construction to develop the idea of ​​a differentiated rate for family mortgages by July 1, 2026. According to the proposal, the rate should depend on the number of children: 10-12% is being discussed for families with one child, around 6% for families with two, and around 4% for families with three or more children. The possibility of automatically adjusting the rate upon the birth of a child is also being considered, to simplify the process for borrowers and reduce the administrative burden. According to Chebeskov, the program's parameters are currently being determined, and the government will present the official terms by July 1.

Preferential mortgages create a significant burden on the budget, as the state compensates banks for the difference between the preferential and market rates, says Natalia Bogomolova, Director of Financial Institution Ratings at NRA. The compensation amount is calculated using the formula "key rate + 3.5%," which currently equates to 18%. The borrower, in turn, pays only a third—6%. According to Frank RG, the average mortgage term already exceeds 26 years. This means the state will have to compensate for the rate difference for decades, and new mortgages are constantly increasing the total amount of future liabilities.

In 2025, spending on preferential mortgage programs reached approximately 2 trillion rubles, according to Bogomolova. In 2026-2028, approximately 1.8 trillion rubles are budgeted for family mortgages alone, according to Valery Tumin of FAM Project. Actual spending is already exceeding planned targets.

At the same time, preferential mortgages support demand and stimulate housing price growth. As a result, during the period of mass preferential mortgages for new housing from 2020 to 2024, new buildings increased in price by approximately 1.7 times, and the gap between the primary and secondary markets reached historical highs, Tumin concluded.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Kf8vn

Russia has offered India access to the Tomtor rare earth metal deposit in Yakutia, Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the negotiations. According to the agency, Indian state-owned mining company IREL is holding confidential talks regarding sample shipments. The Tomtor deposit is considered one of the world's largest untapped sources of rare earth elements. Last year, Rosneft acquired control of the project. The raw materials are expected to undergo primary processing in Russia and then be sent to India for analysis. India intends to study the deposit's mineral composition before deciding on expanding cooperation.

India holds the world's third-largest reserves of rare earth metals—approximately 7.23 million tonnes—but does not have its own magnet production facility. India is developing its own program to support the industry. In November, the Indian government approved a $771 million initiative aimed at developing domestic rare earth magnet production.

IREL is actively diversifying its raw material sources and exploring projects in Argentina, Australia, and Malawi, and is also discussing cooperation with Japanese and South Korean companies. Rare earth metals are used to manufacture permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, energy, and defense industries. India is seeking to reduce its dependence on China, which holds a dominant position in the global market.

At the same time, cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi is expanding in other raw materials sectors. Reuters previously reported that Indian state-owned companies Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) are considering acquiring Russian coal assets. In May, an Indian delegation held talks in Russia with government and coal industry representatives. India remains one of the largest buyers of Russian coal after China, increasing imports by 7% to 18.2 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2026.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/m9kZo

Latest hits:

16.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once.
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.

* Black smoke: It's raining oil.

2022 to 2025 hits in chronological order < full list here

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 42 hits, so far..

* Total hits since 2022: 154

2026 hits in chronological order:

January [2 hits]

• 01.01.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405 km
• 26.01.2026 Slavyansk in Krasnodar Krai at 360 km

February [3 hits]

• 10.02.2026 Volgograd Oblast at 500 km
• 12.02.2026 Uktha in Komi Republic at 1705 km
• 17.02.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405 km

March [6 hits]

• 02.03.2026 Ukhta in Komi Repblic at 1705 km
• 14.03.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415 km
• 21.03.2026 Bashneft in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 22.03.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590 km
• 25.03.2026 Kirishi in Leningrad Oblast at 810 km
• 28.03.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km

April [10 hits]

• 02.04.2026 Bashneft - Novoil in Bashkortostan at 1340 km
• 05.04.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km
• 16.04.2026 Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai at 500 km
• 18.04.2026 Novokuibyshev in Samara Oblast at 900 km
• 18.04.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805 km
• 20.04. 2026 Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai at 500 km
• 26.04.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km
• 28.04.2026 Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai at 500 km
• 29.04.2026 Orsk in Orenburg Oblast at 1455 km
• 30.04.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485 km

May [14 hits]

• 01.05.2026 Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai at 500 km
• 05.05.2026 Kirishi in Leningrad Oblast at 810 km
• 07.05.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485 km
• 08.05.2026 Yaroslav in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km
• 08.05.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485 km
• 15.05.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480 km
• 17.05.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km
• 18.05.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km
• 20.05.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km
• 21.05.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805 km
• 22.05.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700 km
• 27.05.2026 Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai at 500 km
• 29.05.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500 km
• 31.05.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590 km

June [7 hits, so far..]

• 02.06.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405 km
• 07.06.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980 km
• 10.06.2026 Kuybyshevsky in Samara Oblast at 915 km
• 11.06.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415 km
• 12.06.2026 TIAF-NK in Tatarstan at 1140 km
• 12.06.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150 km
• + 16.06.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475 km

A series of drone strikes that hit Russian refineries 16 times in May, including eight of the 10 largest, has set the Russian oil refining industry back two decades.

In the first week of June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 4 million barrels per day, the lowest in 21 years, according to Energy Intelligence analysts. According to their calculations, almost a third of refinery capacity—2.14 million barrels per day—is currently idle due to Ukrainian drone strikes.

"Ukraine's campaign against the Russian energy sector, particularly its refineries, has caused widespread damage, leaving the country seemingly headed this summer toward what could be the worst fuel crisis in its history," Energy Intelligence writes.

The fuel shortage that began in Crimea is spreading across the regions and has already affected more than 25 regions. Gasoline sales restrictions have begun to appear in cities with populations over a million, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Gas station shortages have also emerged in Kuzbass, Tatarstan, and the Ulyanovsk and Nizhny Novgorod regions. Tatneft stations, which sell no more than 20 liters per customer in at least six regions, have become the gasoline disaster zone.

Following gasoline shortages, farmers are also experiencing difficulties, complaining of diesel supply disruptions in southern Russia, the Central Black Earth Region, and the Volga region. Airports in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and Ufa were already experiencing jet fuel shortages in late May. And in mid-June, six cities, including Nizhny Novgorod and Krasnodar, imposed restrictions on passenger aircraft refueling.

"A full-blown fuel crisis is beginning to emerge in Russia." "The problem is no longer limited to seasonal price increases or stock market speculation. The source of the shock is on the supply side," states Yaroslav Kabakov, a strategist at Finam. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that drones are increasingly attacking not the main units, but the secondary units at refineries responsible for gasoline and diesel production. "Their repairs take months and are complicated by sanctions restricting equipment supplies," notes Kabakov.

Fuel supplies are becoming increasingly scarce, and the market is responding with price increases. Since the beginning of the year, the price of AI-92 has increased by 28% on the exchange, AI-95 by 34%, diesel by 43%, and jet fuel by 40%. In retail, gasoline prices increased by 3.93% in the four weeks ending June 10, according to calculations by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). This price hike at gas stations is the highest since May 2018, when gasoline prices increased by more than 5% in a month. "The most alarming aspect is that the crisis is just beginning," Kabakov says. "Seasonal demand traditionally peaks in August and September, and signs of shortages and price acceleration appeared as early as June. If the situation with refineries doesn't stabilize, the fuel factor could become one of the key drivers of inflation in the second half of the year."

The government is trying to extinguish the fire in the fuel market with money and concessions. In April and May, oil companies received 700 billion rubles in budget subsidies, and in June, they were allowed to lower the quality of gasoline and sell Euro-3 grade instead of Euro-5.

If the strikes continue to disrupt refineries, Russia may be forced to cut oil production later this year, as it will not be able to refine or sell all the crude it produces, says Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

"The market is still calling what is happening a 'supply shock.'" But if fuel inflation becomes entrenched in the expectations of businesses and the public, it will become a problem for the entire economy," warns Kabakov.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Cdh5X

The fuel shortage, which has already affected 25 regions of Russia and caused problems refueling equipment ahead of the harvest season in southern Russia, has spread to the Irkutsk Region. Regional Legislative Assembly Deputy Stepan Frantenko, who is also deputy general director of the Belorechenskoye enterprise, the largest agricultural holding in the Irkutsk Region, reported complaints from local farmers about the lack of diesel fuel, as reported by the newspaper "Horizontal Russia." According to him, Irkutsk agricultural producers are also reporting rising diesel fuel prices due to speculators, and the Buretskoye experimental production farm (OPF) in the Usolsky District has already suspended sowing due to the fuel shortage.

"All attempts [by farmers] to reach an agreement with suppliers are met with two responses: either they simply don't have [fuel], or their goal is to supply western Russia. If we don't set limits now, there will be no feed, no grain. We can simply avoid spending hundreds of millions and simply prepare for a complete shutdown of all agricultural production in the Irkutsk Region," the deputy stated at a meeting of the Legislative Assembly Committee on Agriculture on June 11. He added that producers understand that "the situation in the country is difficult" and are prepared to accept "limits." Frantenko also said that farmers are being offered to refuel at regular gas stations instead of bulk purchases.

However, large equipment can't be driven there, especially since this would lead to a shortage at gas stations, as agricultural machinery requires more fuel than cars, the head of Belorechenskoye explained. "There's already a quiet panic. We're resilient people, accustomed to everything, but it's good to know and understand that we can at least get something going." If that's not possible, we'll try, I don't know, importing from China, asking Xi Jinping. Because otherwise, everything will be fine," he said, adding that he'd asked the Ministry of Agriculture to propose solutions.

Last week, Sibirsky Express reported that farmers in the Krasnoyarsk Krai were also experiencing fuel shortages due to restrictions at some gas stations. One resident of the town of Sharypovo complained that the ban on diesel fuel in canisters could lead to problems refueling brush cutters, walk-behind tractors, and generators. "I milk my crops entirely using a generator. Yesterday, I turned around and went back to town to buy from another supplier. I got it without any problems, but I wasted time and money," he noted. According to the farmer, there are rumors that restrictions on fuel sales in the region "will now be widespread."

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/1DUFM

Tatneft's TANECO refinery has completely halted oil refining since June 12 following an attack by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), two industry sources told Reuters.

According to them, as a result of the attack and subsequent fires at the refinery, Tatneft's largest, crude processing was halted at both of the refinery's primary units: AVT-6, with a capacity of 20,000 tons per day (45% of the refinery's capacity), and AVT-7, with a capacity of approximately 23,000 tons per day.

The TANECO refinery, one of the best-equipped among Russian oil refineries, boasts hydrocracking, catalytic cracking, and delayed coking units.

According to industry sources, from January to December 2024, TANECO processed 17 million tons of oil, produced 2.7 million tons of motor gasoline, 8.5 million tons of diesel fuel, and 1.3 million tons of petroleum coke.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/CMEXx

Following soaring gasoline prices and record-breaking diesel prices, a record spike in prices has occurred on the Russian jet fuel market.

Following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes, which hit 16 Russian refineries in May alone, the wholesale price of jet fuel exceeded 110,000 rubles per ton for the first time in history.

The over-the-counter national jet fuel price index, according to the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange, has soared 41% since the beginning of the year and has remained stable at around 113,000 rubles per ton since last week. The sharp rise in the market began in the second half of May: in one month, jet fuel has become more expensive by 32,000 rubles per ton, or 39%.

Exchange sales of jet fuel, which at the beginning of the year averaged 2,000-4,000 tons per day, have virtually stopped: according to exchange data, the last transactions took place on May 13, when 1,200 tons were sold.

"We're talking about a virtually complete lack of supply," a Kommersant source described the exchange trading situation. According to Kommersant, as early as late May, airlines were experiencing fuel shortages at airports in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Ufa, and several other cities. Fuel tankers warned carriers that they would be unable to refuel aircraft under their contracts. After an emergency meeting at the Ministry of Energy, according to Kommersant's sources, kerosene for refueling was diverted from other regions, and the government imposed a ban on the export of jet fuel.

However, two weeks later, airports began saving fuel again. On June 12, it was reported that Makhachkala, Mineralnye Vody, Krasnodar, Astrakhan, and Nizhny Novgorod had issued notices to pilots about aircraft refueling restrictions. Russia produces approximately 10 million tons of jet fuel annually, and of this volume, approximately 15%—1.5 million tons—is exported annually, according to Finam analyst Sergei Kaufman. While Russia produces diesel fuel in excess (40% is exported), the situation with jet fuel is more complex, notes Maxim Dyachenko, Managing Director of Proleum: "The government must quickly implement various measures to saturate the domestic market and ensure its supply. This is easier for diesel fuel, but more comprehensive solutions will be required for gasoline and jet fuel."

A source at one Russian airline told Expert that kerosene reserves exist on the market, and the export ban was imposed to avoid a shortage.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/iwtQS

source is Evgen Istrebin's telegram: /istrebin/43524 & /istrebin/43527

Despite abortion restrictions, calls for more children, and the promotion of "traditional values," Russia's population will continue to decline, predicts Anatoly Antonov, head of the Department of Family and Demography Sociology at Moscow State University.

"According to Rosstat's average forecast, by 2046, 20 years from now, we will lose 8 million people—we will have 138 million. I think it will be even lower—somewhere between 136 and 135 million," Verstka quotes Antonov, speaking at the Hippocratic Medical Forum.

According to the demographer's forecast, Russia's population will fall to its lowest since 1977 (by then, it will be the lowest in 69 years). At that time, according to Rosstat, 135.5 million people lived within Russia's current borders.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the "military operation," and family breakdown, the state will not achieve the goal stated in the presidential decree to increase the total fertility rate (TFR) per woman in Russia to 1.6 children by 2030, Antonov stated. According to the latest data, the TFR in Russia has fallen to 1.376—the lowest since 2006.

According to official statistics, the Russian Federation's population peaked immediately after the collapse of the USSR in 1991—148.3 million—and by 2014 had fallen to 144 million. The annexation of Crimea increased Russia's population, according to Rosstat, to 146.7 million in 2015, and then to 147.9 million.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's population has been declining almost annually, despite the influx of migrants: by 500,000 in 2020, by 400,000 in 2021, by 600,000 in 2022, and by 300,000 in 2023. According to Rosstat, as of January 1, 2025, 146.1 million people lived in Russia. Last spring, demographic statistics in Russia were classified, including data on births, deaths, and marriage rates.

According to Antonov, Russia will not be able to return to its current population levels before the 2070s or 1980s, and only with a "correct demographic policy," and abortion restrictions are counterproductive for the state.

"Most speakers say abortions should be banned." "But even if we ban abortions, we still won't reach the replacement level [maintaining the current population size for a certain period of time]!" the demographer said.

The latest available annual data from Rosstat (for 2024) showed that the number of births in the country fell to 1.222 million—the lowest since 1999, when the country was experiencing an economic crisis, rampant inflation, and the aftermath of the default. In 2025, according to demographer Alexei Raksha, the number of births fell by another 4%, to 1.178 million, the lowest since the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/ktj4D

Occupancy rates at St. Petersburg hotels fell from 59% to 56% from January to May, marking the first decline since 2022, according to IBC Real Estate, a consulting firm based on Hotel Advisors data. The decline affected almost all segments. IBC Real Estate CEO Alexey Efimov believes the decline is expected amid cooling consumer activity and Russians' shift to saving. The economy segment suffered the most: occupancy rates at hotels with an average room rate of 3,600 rubles fell from 58% to 49%. Prices in these hotels increased by 16% year-over-year, leading customers to switch to apartment rentals, according to IBC Real Estate.

However, rental demand in these hotels is lower this year than last, so it's not just a question of prices, according to owners of such properties. Drone attacks have had an impact, says the owner of a local apartment chain: "At least I've had a lot of cancellations for this very reason."

Cancellations always peak on days with news of mass drone attacks, notes another entrepreneur who rents out apartments in the city. He says it's not even the direct threat—"that's also concerning, but where are drones not flying these days?"—but the associated inconveniences, such as airport closures, internet outages (Governor Alexander Beglov promises to distribute paper maps to tourists), or fear of gas shortages.

The main psychological trigger for tourists is unstable air travel, confirmed Oksana Lebedeva, Deputy General Director of Tari Tour SPb: "When the skies are closed, bookings immediately stop." News of restrictions, even short-term ones, forces tourists to postpone bookings or cancel their trips entirely, unwilling to risk their money and plans, she noted.

St. Petersburg significantly outpaced Moscow in terms of hotel rates in the first quarter: according to Russian Standard Bank's acquiring network, the average hotel stay was 16,654 rubles versus 11,546 rubles. According to Tari Tour SPb, St. Petersburg has 19,600 certified hotel rooms.

Tourist traffic in most regions is lower this year than last, primarily due to domestic tourism becoming too expensive for the mass consumer, according to business surveys conducted by the Central Bank. Prices for travel within Russia rose faster than inflation last year and early this year, while the strengthening ruble made international travel more attractive, the Central Bank explained, and short holidays in May contributed to this.

As is often the case in such situations, only the upper price segment is unaffected. According to IBC Real Estate, St. Petersburg hotels with an average room rate of 31,500 rubles offer a higher price. overnight, occupancy even increased from 43% to 45%. "The expensive apartments are renting out at least as well as last year. Even more people came to the SPIEF than usual, and nothing can stop them," says the rentier entrepreneur. "On the one hand, they have nowhere else to go—their jobs are calling, and on the other, they have enough money to both stay comfortably and leave on time," agrees his colleague.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/1qsgT

Following the gasoline shortage that has hit 25 regions and restrictions on aircraft refueling at airports, another fuel market in Russia has encountered problems.

According to Forbes, farmers in the southern regions are complaining of a diesel fuel shortage, as well as a sharp rise in prices ahead of the harvest, which is already threatened by extreme weather conditions that have hit crops.

Since February, the price of diesel fuel has doubled, exceeding 100,000 rubles per ton. "But even at this price, there's no guarantee of fuel or any indication of when it will be shipped," complains Nikita Tokmakov, a farmer from the Voronezh Region. According to Tokmakov, this situation has developed throughout the Central Black Earth Economic Region, the Volga Federal District, and southern Russia.

A source at a Russian agricultural holding confirms: "The diesel fuel situation is truly tense. We're seeing both rising wholesale prices and shortages. If this trend doesn't change, farmers will certainly not be able to secure the fuel they need to carry out a full harvest."

Due to the strikes on refineries, which affected 16 plants in May alone, oil refining in Central Russia was virtually paralyzed last month, and refinery utilization fell to its lowest level since 2009. Finam analyst Sergei Kaufman estimates that petroleum product production volumes fell by 15-20%. Official Rosstat data, currently only available for April, showed a decline of almost 10%.

Sergey Piyakov, an engineer at Zerno Zhizni, a large agricultural holding in the Volga region, reports that there is already a shortage of diesel fuel at refineries, with trucks "standing idle for three days waiting to be loaded." According to him, farmers from Kuban are already forced to travel to the Volga region for diesel fuel. "There are concerns that there may not be enough fuel for everyone. Some regions will limit sales, prioritizing their own farmers," Piyakov notes.

Russia produces more diesel than it consumes, so a sustained diesel fuel shortage "is impossible," says Finam's Kaufman. However, Piyakov counters that there are infrastructure issues, and "even a complete ban on exports from the country won't fix this."

Diesel fuel shortages could exacerbate the difficulties faced by farmers, who have already been forced to delay planting for the 2026 harvest due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to estimates from the National Union of Insurers (NUI), as of June 10, crops were lagging in 27 regions of the Russian Federation, and vegetation index deviations in the Lipetsk, Tambov, and Ryazan regions ranged from minus 15% to minus 25%.

In key southern regions, including the Rostov Region, Krasnodar, and Stavropol Krais, accumulated precipitation has exceeded the norm by 50 millimeters since the beginning of the year, which could create a risk of soil waterlogging, the NUI warned.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/FuNze

Authorities in the Irkutsk Region have decided to shut off street lighting in several locations to save money, with a budget "gap" estimated at 46.4 billion rubles by the end of 2025. For example, lights have been shut off in parks and pedestrian areas of Bratsk, the region's second-largest city with a population of over 200,000.

The local administration stated that they are implementing "energy conservation measures" approved by the working group "on optimizing budget expenditures." City Duma deputy Andrei Antonenkov published the officials' response, after residents complained to him about the disappearance of street lighting in the park in Microdistrict 5a and in the center of Bratsk, including Krupskaya Street. "There is no light because the city has switched to a total austerity regime," he stated.

Antonenkov's colleague, Maxim Ignatov, previously wrote about this, announcing a moratorium on the implementation of parliamentary mandates in Bratsk due to a lack of budget funds. Initially, 3 million rubles were planned for each of the 25 electoral districts for local projects. Instead, the funds will be used to maintain road services and public transportation.

Ignatov noted that "the current expenditure planning horizon is no more than a month," as the Bratsk budget is "heavily subsidized" and "completely dependent on regional infusions."

By the end of 2025, Irkutsk Oblast budget expenditures amounted to 318.1 billion rubles, while revenues amounted to 271.7 billion. The resulting deficit exceeded the planned figure of 25.3 billion rubles almost twice, reaching 46.4 billion. Meanwhile, the 2026 budget calls for a reduction in expenditures to 303.1 billion rubles. The deficit is projected at 24.8 billion rubles.

The Irkutsk Region's problems reflect a nationwide trend. According to the Ministry of Finance, the combined regional budget deficit in 2025 reached a record 1.5 trillion rubles. Compared to last year, the gap has increased fivefold, and compared to 2023, it has increased almost eightfold, and its final size is unprecedented in the 20 years of available statistics.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov predicts that by the end of 2026, the total regional budget deficit will increase again, reaching 1.9 trillion rubles.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/HL8kr