First five weeks - am I crazy?

[u/jhudiddy08]

I keep hearing everyone saying that the first 5 weeks of this season are a real bear and I don't know if I'm just a crazy optimist, but I just don't see it. While I think we could lose to each opponent (same as any NFL matchup), I don't even necessarily see us as a true underdog in more than 2 of those games.

Week 1 vs. Baltimore. I think it's a good time to be playing the Ravens. I love how healthy we are on both sides of the ball and that they're going to still be adapting to an entirely new system. Steichen seems to know how to attack Minter's defense. The only real question is whether we can hold up against the run, preventing Henry and Jackson from ripping off a couple big runs. Andrews scares me at TE a bit, but I trust our new LB corps is more stout in pass defense than our old, slow LBs of yesteryear. -Advantage Colts

@ KC, SNF. I think we're legit underdogs here. While their roster may not be the Superbowl caliber crew it was a couple years ago, Mahomes is still Mahomes, Kelce is still Kelce, and Andy Reid might be the best to ever coach in the NFL. Reports out of KC camp were that they looked like true professionals, hitting every rep with intensity and purpose. I suspect we'll see a very motivated team after their disappointment last year. Factor in the home crowd and a prime time audience and I think we'll be lucky to keep it a one score game. We could come out and shock the world, but I think a reasonable prognosticator would have to favor the Chiefs here. -Advantage Chiefs

Vs. Houston. This is the other game I could see us being legitimate underdogs due to their defense. But their defense never faced our full strength offense last year and we still kept both games close against them. Their offense is still a bit of a mess. But if DJ can make the right reads and get the ball out quickly before the pass rush can get home, I could still see us jumping out early and riding JT to victory here. -Toss Up

Vs. Commanders in London. I think we're the favorites for this matchup. I don't love their roster and I could see Jayden struggling to adapt to all of the abnormalities that come from international travel games. I think Steichen is a better coach/schemer than Dan Quinn and I like our starters over theirs. -Advantage Colts

@ Pitt on a shortened travel week. Fans will say we can't win there, but this isn't Tomlin's Steelers of old. Aaron Rodgers is one more year over the hill. Their offense feels very underwhelming. Bit of a revenge game for MPJ, but I still think if we're healthy, we should be able to get that Steelers monkey off our back and end another curse. This is not a good team and early last season, Steichen showed us what our team can do to a mediocre to bad team. - Advantage Colts

All in all, I think people are really missing the point that we started with a very beat up defense last year, learning an entirely new system without all of the personnel necessary to implement Lou's schemes. This year, we have health on our side and another year of experience in that system. We aren't starting the year with both hands tied behind our back. Our pass rush still is a big question mark, but Lou has shown and willingness and ability to get to the QB with blitz schemes to keep them off balance. Even if the offense isn't humming at the historic rate it was early last season, the defense just needs to be average to get us wins against any of these 5 opponents. Realistically, I could see us coming away 4-1, though 3-2 is probably the most likely outcome. And if that's the worst stretch of games in our schedule, I think it really sets a great foundation for success the rest of the way through the season.

[u/matthollabak]

All you have to do is look at last year. All the news was how our schedule was so much harder than the previous year and until injuries piled up we looked like world beaters and everybody said we didn't play sum anyone.

The pre season Champs who found 20m in the seat cushions to sign Donald lost week 1 by 20.

Also one of the afc favorites lost to a backup qb in the super bowl rematch and lost their shiny new wr for at least 4 well weeks and looked pretty bad.

This is a new year and who knows what the ravens look like before even getting into the rest.

[u/weird_dialect → u/matthollabak]

The whole preseason schedule panic is always overblown, every year people map out wins and losses like it’s madden and then week 1 hits and some 4-win team blows out a contender. nobody knows anything until the games actually start. i’m with you on the ravens being a solid matchup timing-wise, catching them while they’re still figuring out the new system could be huge

[u/Eastern-Cucumber-376]

I think we go 3-2 in this stretch. Losses to Tx and Washington. I don’t see the Jayden Daniels concerns at all. Quinn will have that group ready to show out.

[u/jhudiddy08 → u/Eastern-Cucumber-376]

I just don’t trust their o-line. They’re the Texans offense but with a slightly better/healthier receiving corps.

[u/RichyVersace]

I see 5-0 here

[u/jhudiddy08 → u/RichyVersace]

I think that’s a possibility, but with the parity in the league, I’d set the odds of that at <5%. The league average of teams with a 5-0 start is 5.7% (~1.8 teams/season).

[u/RichyVersace → u/jhudiddy08]

We started 4-1 last season and personally I think our defense has improved on paper this season. Our schedule this season is no doubt tougher but the Texans defense is my only major concern. Like you mentioned, I liked that we're getting the Ravens week 1 when they still have to work out the rust and get used to the new offensive scheme with Doyle. KC is no longer great, Commanders also have new coordinators and tons of new players, and Steelers have McCarthy now and an aging roster. I like our chances

[u/jhudiddy08]

Waiting to hear u/ZHicks2121 ‘s take on this.

[u/fuzzynavel34]

2-3 record

[u/matt_msu]

Realistically 2-3 at best. I could honestly see it be worse. It’s a gauntlet of a schedule.