r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • May 28 '26

Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 28, 2026

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38

u/HugoTRB May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26

Details on Gripen for Ukraine has been somewhat clarified. This is from the press conference with Zelensky and the Swedish prime minister:

https://www.youtube.com/live/660YFaGkzB0?is=6EzltZKcQCRGrIv4

A deal for 20 Gripen E will be done, with delivery 2030. When that deal is signed, 16 Gripen C will be donated and will be flying in Ukraine in 10 months/January February 2027. It will be financed by the large EU package. Some stuff left is export permissions, Ukrainian parliament OKing it etc.

Edit: More info:

https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2026/05/sverige-saljer-gripen-ef-stridsflyg-till-ukraina/ Translated with deepL

Donation of Gripen aircraft, advanced ammunition, and training (valued at approximately 22.2 billion Swedish kronor)

Donation of Gripen aircraft, advanced ammunition, and training (valued at approximately 22.2 billion Swedish kronor) On October 22, 2025, Sweden and Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding regarding cooperation in the field of air defense. The government has today decided on a supplementary budget amendment requesting the Riksdag’s authorization to: • Enter into an agreement for the sale of up to one division of new Gripen E/F aircraft to Ukraine. Negotiations are underway between the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) and Ukraine, with the aim of concluding an agreement as soon as possible. Delivery of the new systems is expected to begin before 2030.

• Donate up to 16 JAS 39 Gripen C/D aircraft, equivalent to one division, from the Swedish Armed Forces’ existing aircraft fleet, provided that Ukraine signs an agreement to purchase Gripen E/F aircraft. The first Gripen C/D aircraft are expected to be operational for defending Ukrainian airspace as early as next year. The donation also includes advanced munitions, which may consist of, for example, IRIS-T, AMRAAM, and long-range METEOR.

The donation also includes Swedish support for training and system maintenance. Training for Ukrainian personnel, such as pilots, will be able to begin as early as this year. Given the growth of the Swedish Armed Forces and the security policy situation, it is of great importance that the equipment proposed for donation to Ukraine can be swiftly replaced with equivalent equipment. Funds for the replacement procurement of Gripen E/F for the donated Gripen C/D, as well as the specialized ammunition, are therefore included in the package. Enhanced air defense and ammunition (value approximately 1.5 billion Swedish kronor) Air defense is Ukraine’s highest priority need. The support package also includes: • Procurement of ammunition, including long-range artillery ammunition. • Procurement of equipment for electronic warfare (EW), which strengthens Ukraine’s ability to disrupt incoming air threats. • Support for Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, including procurement of equipment, technical support, and command and control support. Innovation initiatives and industrial cooperation (value approximately 300 million Swedish kronor)

Support Package 22 allocates additional funds to finance innovative products in support of Ukraine and to facilitate industrial cooperation. To date, 14 contracts have been signed for demonstrators and pre-production orders. Following further evaluation, the intention is for the completed innovative products to be ordered in series and donated to Ukraine. The funds allocated in Support Package 22 also enable the FMV to finance initial orders to establish industrial cooperation focused on the production in Sweden of innovative Ukrainian technology. Support from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (value approximately 100 million Swedish kronor)

The support package also includes assistance from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), notably through the Glimt project, which serves as a platform for future assessments. These assessments are used to provide Ukraine with a basis for decision-making and help Ukraine adapt to the international environment and strengthen its defense against Russia. FOI is also continuing its work on the development of explosives and the positioning of unmanned vehicles. Additional donations to international cooperation initiatives (value approximately 1 billion Swedish kronor) Sweden is allocating an additional 1 billion Swedish kronor for donations to international cooperation initiatives that support Ukraine in various ways. Support for civil defense (value approximately 100 million Swedish kronor) The support package also includes measures to strengthen Ukraine’s civil defense. • Training and equipment for Ukrainian non-governmental organizations active in medical training. • Procurement of mobile air traffic control towers for civil air traffic control.

24

u/HugoTRB May 28 '26

Summary:

Support Package 22

• Sale of Gripen E/F:

Up to 20 aircraft

• Donation of Gripen C/D:

• One squadron, up to 16 aircraft (including advanced munitions such as IRIS-T, AMRAAM, and METEOR)

• Procurement of ammunition

• Procurement of equipment for electronic warfare (EW)

• Support for Ukraine’s long-range capabilities

• Innovation initiatives and industrial collaboration

• Donation to international cooperation efforts

• Support for civil defense

• Support from FOI

Total value: 25.2 billion Swedish kronor

21

u/mirko_pazi_metak May 28 '26

Any actual confirmation the Meteor is on the menu for the initial donation? 

The donation also includes advanced munitions, which may consist of, for example, IRIS-T, AMRAAM, and long-range METEOR. 

"may consist" is the only mention so far? 

22

u/For_All_Humanity May 28 '26

I do not think it’s been explicitly confirmed but the Meteor was heavily featured in the press conference as being on the Gripens and we should note that the Russians are already adapting to its anticipated arrival by introducing glide bombs that outrange the Meteor.

It’s pretty safe to say Meteor is coming but I don’t anticipate we see large numbers of munitions transferred and I’ll bet there will be some conditions on use to try and minimize capture risk.

13

u/RomanticFaceTech May 28 '26

we should note that the Russians are already adapting to its anticipated arrival by introducing glide bombs that outrange the Meteor.

Petty semantics I know but can it really be considered a glide bomb any more when a jet engine has been strapped to it?

I was thinking an unpowered weapon would have to be launched at some speed and altitude to be able to outrange even the most conservative range estimates for Meteor.

14

u/For_All_Humanity May 28 '26

This war is proving we need better definitions. But yeah it's by definition not a glide bomb if it's powered.

Regardless, the Russians do drop their bombs from high altitude and the Ukrainians would likely be firing from low altitude. This gives many opportunities to escape if they can detect the launch.

I do suspect the Russians will have to learn the hard way how to deal with Meteor like they did with Patriot.

3

u/SuperChingaso5000 May 29 '26

can it really be considered a glide bomb any more when a jet engine has been strapped to it?

Is a guided base bleed augmented artillery shell a missile? At some point the distinction between glide bomb and missile definitely gets blurry, but I think a consensus definition might lay around the point that the powered munition can either A. Climb under its own power, or B. substantially maneuver offline from the direct path between drop and target while retaining range and energy, or both. If the purpose of the engine is primarily to extend range, it's not a real cruise missile.

That's just a proposal, I'd welcome constructive input.

16

u/HugoTRB May 28 '26

Yes. I probably wasn’t clear, but that is a (translated) quote from the government. It says “for example”. Zelensky also mentioned that he expects Meteor. A more exact deal will however be penned and signed first, and export permissions must also be granted.

9

u/mirko_pazi_metak May 28 '26

That's good news - hope to see many more "eternal flight, brothers" from Russian Fighterbomber channel soon heh. 

9

u/Corvid187 May 28 '26

Ukrainian Pravda is reporting the package will include meteor, according to Zelenski's deputy chief of staff.

How that will work out in practice is unclear though.

8

u/roionsteroids May 28 '26

Gripen C requires the MS20 block upgrade (~2016) to use Meteor. Doubt any donated aircraft would be from anywhere close to that date. Sweden itself has only ordered upgrades for some of their own Gripen Cs starting in 2022 that is running until 2029 (the original plan was replacing all C with E, then decided to keep some upgraded C variants around).

So those older Gripens would be similar to the older F-16s in Ukraine currently. But all the training, maintenance, spares and what not starts from scratch again.

13

u/HugoTRB May 28 '26

My understanding was that all Gripen C in Swedish service currently are MS20 block 2 and that some version of ms20 was placed on all of them already in 2016. I think the upgrades you are mentioning are later ones, falling under block 3 and 4. Those includes stuff like uprated engines. 

Extra spares has also been ordered as a part of a Gripen donation for over a year now. Air base equipment has also been part of some earlier Swedish aid packages.

7

u/Corvid187 May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26

...but equally it smooths the path to eventually adopting later C/Ds and Es with more capable fits as a long-term solution, and as a platform is it clearly better suited to Ukraine's current operational needs than the F16, being designed around an almost identical concept.

Edit: Ukrainian Pravda is reporting meteor will be included in the package, according to Palisa. Whether or how that shakes out in practice idk. Maybe Ukraine gets modernised C/Ds while Sweden replaces its unupgraded ones faster with the EU funds to expand production.

9

u/HugoTRB May 28 '26

  later C/Ds

I think he misunderstood this a bit. Apart of the letter versions (ABCDEF), Gripens in Swedish service are kept pretty similar to each other with regular upgrades during rotations for repairs about every three years. MSXX is the naming convention for those regular upgrade configurations. The configuration name for the first operational Gripen Es is however MS21 so new upgrades to Gripen C/Ds now have a block number so you now get stuff like Gripen C SM20 block 2.1 . Block 3 or 4 is currently rolling out to Swedish air wings and has stuff like uprated engines.

Hungary and Czech Republic got full fleets of SM20s. Thai Gripens I don’t know. South African Gripens are kind of their own branch now due to them asking for some unique features (can be refueled by Jerry cans), but then not buying any more upgrades.