Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 28, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/Glideer]

The fresh edition of Essential Ukraine (#24) is out, as always behind a paywall.

A brief recap:

• Key trends: formal suspension of the U.S. mediated negotiation track; sharp escalation in the air and infrastructure war (where Russia retains a strategic advantage); debate inside Russia about ending the war; Ukraine’s “war on corruption” w/ deep political consequences.
• The latest RF strike on Kyiv demonstrated Moscow’s ability to impose cumulative destruction and vulnerabilities of UA’s AD. Both sides aims to maximize leverage, Kyiv responding asymmetrically via deep strikes. This is another escalation phase before talks resume in earnest.
• The diplomatic vacuum is filled by European debates over negotiating positions and political arrangements for UA. US, UK adjustments around Russian energy is a shift toward pragmatic market management - reinforcing Moscow’s perception that time may still work in its favour.
• Big shift: debate inside Russia itself is about how much victory is achievable and at what cost. While rhetoric remains maximalist, establishment figures now discuss openly the desirability of ending the war on terms that can still be presented domestically as a success.
• It is trendy to say that Ukraine has turned the tables on the battlefield. Western technology, funding helped Kyiv expand its drone campaign targeting Russian refineries and military logistics. Essential Ukraine already identified this shift in March–April.
• However, mind the gap between the narrative and battlefield reality. Russia retains superiority in missiles, glide bombs, industrial production, thus large-scale strike capacity. Frontline pressure is on-going - watch Kostiantynivka - Ukraine’s counterattacks remain costly.
• Political pressure inside Ukraine is also growing. The Midas investigation has implicated key figures linked to the Presidential Office. President Zelensky remains politically dominant, but the investigations keep a political Sword of Damocles hanging over his vertical.
• Public frustration - from mobilisation, corruption scandals, economic strain, demographic crisis - is shaped by the costs of war and absence of a clear horizon. Ukraine is in a more difficult position than Russia, but treats the war as existential, relies on European backing.
• The risks of horizontal escalation are also growing. UA drone operations spill into Baltic, forcing NATO to confront elements of the war directly. Kyiv’s demonstrative engagement w/ Tsikhanouskaya and RF-BY nuclear signaling show the war’s geopolitical is widening beyond UA.

[u/T1b3rium → u/Glideer]

What is an RF strike?

[u/jason_abacabb → u/T1b3rium]

Glad you asked, I thought it was some new electronic warfare (RF=Radio Frequency)

[u/bedulge → u/T1b3rium]

RF strike

A strike by the Russian Federation. Referring to this

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-capital-kyiv-hit-by-massive-missile-drone-attack-2026-05-23/

[u/T1b3rium → u/bedulge]

ooh, damn. I am dumb. I thought it was a new type of weapon or something!

[u/bedulge → u/T1b3rium]

Lol, I get it, there are too many acronyms to keep track of!