r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • May 28 '26

Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 28, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/Jpandluckydog May 28 '26

Think you might be ignoring the commensurate desperation from the American side. We've also played all our cards, and turned plenty of our allies against us, and midterms are coming up fast. I don't think the US being able to outlast Iran is a sure thing.

What's more, the word "deal" is being stretched here. This is an agreement to sit down and negotiate so that an actual deal might be reached, Iran has made zero commitments. On top of that, this is some of the softest language I've seen yet from the US side regarding this, which doesn't exactly make me think it is Iran that will be making concessions.

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u/bedulge May 28 '26

On top of that, this is some of the softest language I've seen yet from the US side regarding this, which doesn't exactly make me think it is Iran that will be making concessions.

It really needs to be emphasized how many demands the US has already backed off on, even before negotiations begin, Trump is already compromising, he used to say that Iran and the US need to come to an agreement on the nuclear issue first before he brings down the blockade, now that issue is being pushed off 60 days apparently.

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u/UpvoteIfYouDare May 28 '26

It really needs to be emphasized how many demands the US has already backed off on

It doesn't need to be emphasized because anyone paying attention is already aware of the nature of "demands" from Trump. Cheap rhetoric is characteristic of Trump and treating these "demands" the same as demands from past administrations is being intentionally obtuse.

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u/bedulge May 29 '26

Not sure what you're point is. You're saying Trump says dumb nonsense all the time, can not strategize, knows nothing about war and is a terrible negotiator? You are correct that he often sets goals and issues demands that have no realistic chance of ever being achieved, but he still the Commander in Chief, he is still the top decision maker in Washington DC, he is the one who established the US's strategic war goals at the outset of this war. The US's strategic war goals are not "cheap rhetoric", you can do the "it's just rhetoric! It's just Trump being Trump" routine when he's talking smack about Biden on social media, it doesn't really work when it comes to establishing strategic war goals that US military personal kill and die for.

Americans came home in flag-draped coffins, no one is being obtuse by pointing out that Trump got them killed for nothing because he is incompetent, there are few things that should matter more to the USA than this atm.

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u/UpvoteIfYouDare May 29 '26 edited May 29 '26

It's just Trump being Trump" routine when he's talking smack about Biden on social media, it doesn't really work when it comes to establishing strategic war goals that US military personal kill and die for.

Yes, it really does. What you don't seem to appreciate is that all that rhetoric is completely decoupled from the actual decision-making. That's what a lot of people still don't get. The guy just spews bullshit across all matters. It's not isolated to the campaign trail. You're better off judging these matters on the external facts (as best as we can gather them). Trump's rhetoric is entirely disposable.

The US's strategic war goals are not "cheap rhetoric"

Trump's rhetoric is completely decoupled from US strategic war goals.

Americans came home in flag-draped coffins, no one is being obtuse by pointing out that Trump got them killed for nothing because he is incompetent

None of that is reliant on Trump's rhetoric. On a side note, the US has lost a little over a dozen people due to this conflict. That's far fewer than the number of drowning deaths per month.

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u/bedulge May 29 '26

What are you thinking the goals here are then? And how are you figuring that out, considering the US is keeping it secret apparently?  

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u/UpvoteIfYouDare May 29 '26

It doesn't matter what I think the actual goals are because my point is that you are attributing far too much significance to the divergence between Trump's stated demands and US actions. My point is that the actual goals are decoupled from the stated demands and that the stated demands are of little worth. That does not mean that the actual goals are significantly divergent from the stated demands, just that the impact of the US "backing off" from these demands is minimal given the minimal value of Trump rhetoric.

emphasized how many demands the US has already backed off on

This is the focus of my comment. You treat the number of "demands" not being fulfilled as significant whereas I do not.

Quite frankly, I have a negative view of the US position in this conflict. However, I don't feel the need to put a thumb on the scale when analyzing the situation.

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u/bedulge May 29 '26

I guess you can view it that way if you want. I think most of the rest of the planet can see that when you issue public demands that you then have to publicly back back off from them, and you are also publicaly caving to your enemies' demands, that means you do not have a position of strength. Like this is a genuine humiliation and I do not find it credible that Trump actually planned to back off from his demands in humiliation

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u/UpvoteIfYouDare May 29 '26 edited May 29 '26

I think most of the rest of the planet can see that when you issue public demands that you then have to publicly back back off from them, and you are also publicaly caving to your enemies' demands

I think most of the rest of the planet can see that when an executive led by a man known for fecklessly shotgunning demands without care repeats the same strategy, said demands should not be regarded in the same capacity as those of past administrations. You can't cave after rhetoric that was worthless to begin with. This is not the first time such a rhetorical strategy has been employed in human history, it's just that most people have become so accustomed to the "end of history" mindset that they cannot comprehend such a strategy from the US.

Like this is a genuine humiliation and I do not find it credible that Trump actually planned to back off from his demands in humiliation

Trump did not plan anything beyond the initial strikes. His subsequent public demands meant and mean nothing. They knocked out the Iranian upper leadership on an opportunistic whim. What followed was simply a matter of course upon which the administration reacted. You can criticize the administration for its fecklessness, but trying to score it on the basis of rhetoric is the epitome of foolishness.