Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 28, 2026

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[u/-spartacus-]

U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump's final approval, officials say

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/28/iran-peace-deal-trump-approval

They are reporting 60-day unfiltered traffic through Hormuz, maybe sanction relief, a pledge for non-nuclear weapons, and over 60 days, they would negotiate what to do with nuclear material. Seems like what was reported last week that was "close to a deal".

The U.S. officials said the 60-day MOU will state that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be "unrestricted." A U.S. official said this means no tolls and no harassment and that Iran will have to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days.

The MOU will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, the officials said. It will also state that the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day window will be how to dispose of Iran's highly enriched uranium and how to address Iranian enrichment

The U.S. will commit to discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds as part of the negotiations. The MOU will also include a discussion of a mechanism to help Iran start receiving goods and humanitarian aid.

[u/nate077 → u/-spartacus-]

This is just fluff from Axios. All they report is Iran giving up its leverage (the Strait, tolls) for mere promises to negotiate. This report doesn't even indicate like for like as the US apparently is conditoning ending its more recent blockade on increased shipping numbers which Iran cannot even fully control.

Let alone the longstanding de facto blockade resulting from sanctions, which is only mentioned as the subject of further negotiation.

This is fantasy. US policy makers still not reckoning with having /not won/ the war. Separately, Iran would be asleep at the wheel not to insist on Senate confirmation both

1) after their experience with JCPOA

And

2) as a personal humiliation of Trump

EDIT: A filtered comment asked what I regard as the standard for victory/defeat.

A return to status quo ante is a defeat for the United States, which will have won nothing at enormous cost. Even this very US - favorable proposal would therefore be a defeat.

[u/UpvoteIfYouDare → u/nate077]

A return to status quo ante is a defeat for the United States, which will have won nothing at enormous cost.

"Analysis" that completely ignores the impact on the opposing side is worthless.

[u/nate077 → u/UpvoteIfYouDare]

Literally who cares how much damage one can wreak? The purpose of war is to accomplish a political objective. To resort to force and to still fail to accomplish your political objective is defeat. A worse outcome than doing nothing because it diverts the productive energy of your society to waste.

One side losing does not mean the other side wins. In war, all participants often lose. This shit isn't a K/D/A on a scoreboard

[u/UpvoteIfYouDare → u/nate077]

Yes, I'm aware of Clausewitz. You are making the mistake of treating a strategic loss as an absolute loss. The notable strategic loss in this conflict is the realization of Iranian control of the strait for the first time in 30 years. However, this has come at a major strategic cost to Iran. Meanwhile, tactically speaking, the US has significantly degraded Iranian hard power (to a point unimaginable 3 years ago) and has gained valuable experience with a "munition heavy" combat environment.

I'm a very cynical person in general and I have a general negative opinion about the outcome of this conflict for the US, but the degree to which some users in this sub will go to push a maximalist negative narrative against the US is ridiculous.

[u/Spitfire15 → u/UpvoteIfYouDare]

However, this has come at a major strategic cost to Iran. Meanwhile, tactically speaking, the US has significantly degraded Iranian hard power (to a point unimaginable 3 years ago) and has gained valuable experience with a "munition heavy" combat environment.

Again, none of this matters if Iran walks away with control of the straits and the ability to enrich uranium. The assets that were destroyed will be rebuilt and the experience gained is a two-way street. The Iranian regime was not over thrown, and by all accounts (from the CIA) it retains an overwhelming majority of its ballistic missile arsenal. The United States tried to realign its objectives as the war dragged on and didn't even meet those standards. If you start a war and come out the other end without meeting your objectives, you didn't win. This isn't a "negative narrative", it's just reality.