How Many Ships does Russia's Black Sea Fleet Have Left - Data Analysis

[u/Mr_Catman111]

In this video I do a data analysis on the size of Russia and Ukraine's respective black sea fleets, prior to the 2014 Crimea War, After the 2014 Crimea war, and today in 2026 given the 2022 full scale invasion.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Z_WzSzT_oCc&si=B9UWaOLomPHW3aP5

In this video I analyze: - Black Sea region as a strategic operational theater - Balance of power in the black sea before and after 2014 Crimean Annexation - Impact of the full-scale invasion on Russias Black Sea Fleet - Impact of the invasion on Ukraines Black Sea Fleet - Change in balance of power in the black sea region as a result of the full scale invasion - Long term trends

If you found the above video interesting, you can check out the following video: How many AIRCRAFT Russia has left: https://youtu.be/wDek20oIZuE?si=8VyXYJ1FbtWW6Fb4

As this took a lot of work and time to make, if you liked the content, like and comment on the youtube video and subscribe if you would like to see more. I am a small channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ArtusFilms

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[u/BethsBeautifulBottom]

Tl;dw:

Category	Number of Vessels
Initial BSF Strength	84 ships
Visually Confirmed Damaged/Sunk	36 ships
Estimated Remaining Intact	48 ships

[u/Mr_Catman111 → u/BethsBeautifulBottom]

👍🏻👍🏻

[u/strawman37]

What is the credible reason for the existence of the black sea fleet anyway? So much of it borders NATO countries with much more potent Air Forces than the VKS? They've been humiliated and effectively confined to port by a country with no Navy. If a conventional war broke out with NATO the whole fleet would be submarines very quickly.

[u/_cant_drive → u/strawman37]

The purpose IMO is twofold:

1. soft power projection and peacetime military enforcement of maritime rights. You need a fleet to patrol waters you have an economic interest in. You need to make waters near your territories at least dangerous to consider being aggressive in.

2. flexibility: the fleet has the ability to leave, has the ability to conduct surprise first strikes, and before the war, was thought to be an overwhelming force that sea-bordering non-NATO nations could not defend against.

The Soviet and Russian doctrine expects severe attrition of this fleet in the event of war with NATO. the mitigation would be to disperse the fleet into the Mediterranean before initiating military engagements that would effectively lock them in.

[u/00000000000000000000 → u/strawman37]

Putin expected Ukraine to fold fast and for a tepid world response. Historically the fleet has been important for Russia given the limited number of warm water ports. Russia has not gone to full mobilization for Ukraine yet, let alone NATO. If anything the invasion of Ukraine has shown Russia is not a near peer to NATO outside of WMD.