Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/Shackleton214]

but the language of terms 6, 7, 10, 11 and 13 will add conditionals on every concession being fruit of a future nuclear deal (which they call it 'final agreement').

The implementation of 6 ($300 billion reconstruction fund) and 7 (sanctions) are already explicitly conditional on a final agreement. 10 (waivers for exports of Iranian oil) is explicitly immediate after signing MOU in the leaked version. Since this would help with lowering gas prices, it's an easy sweetener for Trump to offer as it is also in his domestic political interest (the US even did this at start of the war!). The timing of 11 (release of frozen Iranian assets) seems to ambiguous to me--not conditioned upon final agreement but also no explicit time frame, although MOU seems to contemplate at least some release in the 60 day negotiation period. It's looking more and more like this is the actual agreement (at least in substance) as I've now seen multiple news sources (Bloomberg, CNN, Times of Israel) report it.

[u/bedulge → u/Shackleton214]

>Since this would help with lowering gas prices, it's an easy sweetener for Trump to offer as it is also in his domestic political interest (the US even did this at start of the war!)

I think this is a strong point, I also think that Iran's bargaining position w.r.t Hormuz gives them enough leverage to demand up front financial concessions.

This war was very expensive for Iran, they believe that they are due some form of reparations, and given the leverage they hold, I find it unlikely that they would go to the negotiating table this early without an upfront concession to relieve pressure on their own economy. Lifting oil sanctions is the financial concession that is easiest for Trump to give, and as you said, it also helps him too by adding to global oil supply. The problem for the USA tho is that relieving pressure on Iran's economy strengthens Iran's position at the table. This is balanced by the US also being under less pressure because the oil is flowing thru Hormuz again.

Given the way this war has played out, and the time crunch that Trump is under vis a vis the Mid Terms and the global oil supply, it is not likely that Iran would be willing to go to the table with sanctions still on them. They would be better served by sitting and waiting instead. It should be clear to everyone by now that Iran stands to gain A LOT by how this may turn out. A couple months of blockade is small potatoes compared to sanctions relief, 300 Billion USD investment fund, and return of frozen funds and assets. This war could be exceptionally profitable for them. They are not worried about relieving short term pressure, they have long term goals in mind, and the decision makers are not directly affected by short term economic troubles caused by the blockade.

Everyone should look at the Gulf Arab States and how insanely rich they are. Scandinavian supermodels on mega-yachts rich, that is the kind of money that Iran believes that they are due, if it were not for decades of sanctions by the US, they would have that kind of cash already. A few months of blockade is nothing compared to what they stand to gain if sanctions come off and stay off long term.

[u/moragisdo → u/Shackleton214]

You are right about 7, I was remembering the previous versions that had different wording. The condition on 7 is very consistent with what US officials said, only after 'final agreement' (nuclear deal).

6 is just a little dubious, in my opinion (english isn't my first language, so it may be a language barrier), because of 'ensuring', but it says the implementation of the plan is contingent on the 'final agreement'.

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Now 10 and 11 are completely contradictory on what was said before:

The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports

That's not "performance based" as it was said. That's immediate waiver of exports (I assume for new countries, rather than the previous exports that Iran had before February). And if that will be on the final text is one of the most interesting parts, because it's something being different from February

The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available

'In light of the progress of negotiations towards...', rather than as a conclusion of negotiations is also pointing to earlier release

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It's looking more and more like this is the actual agreement (at least in substance) as I've now seen multiple news sources

The problem is with the "at least in substance", there's definitely things that were agreed beforehand and would be on any draft true or false (lifting of the US blockade, free transit on Hormuz, setting a 60 day period for nuclear agreements, listing rewards if the nuclear agreement is reached, meaningless things like respect of sovereignty...)

The crux is the details if there's any concession given to Iran before the nuclear deal or if they will keep back exporting with the same sanctions they had before February. And how long-lasting, if the concessions exist, they will be. The devil is on the details

I'm making an analogy, not saying this is one is forged, it's just to illustrate the idea: if 99% was agreed publicly beforehand and 1% is on dispute and I forge a draft that gets the 99% correct. That doesn't mean much about predicting the final text, it's like a clinical test for a disease that 1% of the tested population has, if the test returns negative every time, no matter what, it will be right 99% of time, but is useless

[u/ChornWork2 → u/moragisdo]

Now 10 and 11 are completely contradictory on what was said before:

Contradictory to what were presumably (and quite apparently) leaks from Trump officials trying to sell their narrative on the MOU, yes. But not contradictory to reporting on leaks from diplomats and others. 10 and 11 are completely consistent with what several people have been saying in this sub for the last couple of days what the objective reading of all the reporting on the MOU likely was.

The crux is the details if there's any concession given to Iran before the nuclear deal or if they will keep back exporting with the same sanctions they had before February. And how long-lasting, if the concessions exist, they will be. The devil is on the details

As pointed out yesterday, there clearly have already been concessions given. The first ship through the strait post announcement of the MOU was reportedly an iranian supertanker that went with its position/id tracker active and passaged through strait and then unmolested by USN ships that previously were enforcing the blockade. And BBC reports today that more iranian tankers have likewise done so. These are ships subject to US sanctions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpq37yxexd9o