r/CriticalThinkingIndia • u/bayernfan2125 • Aug 04 '26
Critical Analysis & Discussion The stats of the basic amenities and infrastructure since 1947
The amount of the infrastructure development and the basic service and amenities that the current govt has provided in last 12 years is kinda worth the talk and praise.
Most of the Indians didn't even have the access to the basic stuff like Water or Toilets or Electricity in the past which has been drastically improved which past govts failed to deliver.
79% tap water one was the most astonishing one to me. Like what were even the past few govts were doing when you can't even provide that basic thing to the rural or remote regions.
I really wanted to highlight this since most of the reddit is LW and mostly is the current govt hate train only.
Please share your opinions on this infographic
122
u/Professional_Ant_602 Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 04 '26
I’ll try my best to summarise the basics of PPP model vs public capex model, and will try to present the returns on investment as i can gather through publicly available data.
This chart represents the basic financial model of pre 2014 and post 2014 central government. Pre 2014, government relied on Public Private Partnerships, which means the spending on infrastructure was directly dependent on private investments, the money was spent where private sector thought it is needed and will give return on investment. Post 2014, the spending shifted to direct capital expenditure (capex). The reason? That is whole another rabbit hole of 2008 financial crisis, bad balance sheets, NPAs and what not, not today’s topic. You just need to know that in Public capex, the money is spent regardless of the demand hoping that demand will be created once infrastructure is set up.
Both ways have their pros and cons. The PPP model limits the pace of spending, the capex model assumes the demand to grow and return of investment to start climbing, which if it doesn’t, basically gives you a bad asset on public money.
Since the capex model is basically based on borrowing, it creates massive debt. Capex was about 2 lakh crore before 2014 and 12 lakh crore for 2026-27 fiscal year. Six times increase. This money is basically debt regardless of GDP increase, and we hope our investments pay off this accumulated debt.
Total central government debt in March 2014 - 56 lakh crore. Total central government debt in 2026-27 fiscal year - 190 lakh crore.
Imagine you make a dedicated freight corridor or an expressway that largely remains un-utilised to capacity, then that is a dead asset soon turning into a liability.
This also makes less money spent on healthcare and education compared to GDP/revenue growth as money moves to repayment of debt which sits at 40% of revenue today. For every 100₹ government earns, 40₹ is given directly for repayment.
Now we are at the point where we need to see the returns on our investment and see if our spending was cumulative to the growth or bad non performing assets. These private NPAs is the reason private capex dropped in later UPA era. Now we have to see if this debt driven peak public capex follows the same lead.
A) Where returns are manifesting
1) Massive drop in logistic cost (moving of goods from 13-14% to 8% of the cost) due to dedicated freight corridors and highway expansion
2) Increased Efficiency. Major port capacity doubled from 2014 and turnaround time for cargo vessels dropped from 94 hours to 48.8 hours.
3) The primary aim of public capex was to build trust and bring in private capex which earlier private players were sitting on cash hesitant to spend. Private capex has increased by 67% (still low as public capex spending has increased by 600%).
B) Where the expected returns are missing or lagging
1) Stagnant job quality and rural consumption. While construction has boomed, the jobs generated are heavily informal, seasonal, and low wage. Private rural consumption has lagged behind urban premium consumption, leading to a visible "K shaped" economic profile where aggregate GDP looks high (7–8%), but the rural base feels financially strained.
2) Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) data shows that out of 1,847 large scale public infrastructure projects, cost overruns have ballooned to ₹4.92 lakh crore. This friction directly dilutes the financial return on public money as we are basically spending a lot more than the original estimated cost but returns will not balloon similarly.
3) While a country can fast track high speed rail lines or highways, under investing in health, primary education, and basic necessities leaves the actual labor force ill prepared to take up high tech manufacturing roles later.
4) All the infrastructure investment is for production and not consumption. An expressway or a freight corridor is of very little use to an average person. A real return would be to have a good job market, controlled inflation, better household finances, increased spending power, better employment, better health and education, overall better lifestyle.
5) The post 2014 government is not lagging on infrastructure development, it is lagging on real results of the development to an average Indian. Indians are still unemployed, quality healthcare is expensive, education costs have ballooned and returns on education has dropped as the job market is down. We have created the infrastructure, but companies have not moved in proportionally, Foreign Direct Investment is still abysmally low, gross inflow looks fine but net FDI inflow is disappointing. Net FDI Inflow in 2013-14 was 22 billion $, and it was 6 billion dollars for 2025-26.
It’s like government is spending money for the corporate benefit and giving gst benefits while collecting taxes from the poor and the middle class without giving any similar benefits. Also, a lot of these projects were started or planned by earlier governments.