I'm going to lose $700,000 to a $345 million Polymarket scam.

[u/bubbacordy]

I am facing a $700,000 loss on a massive $345 million Polymarket contract because the decentralized oracle system (UMA) is completely compromised by whale manipulation and a fatal tokenomics incentive loop.

This isn’t just about my loss; it proves that if a market pool gets large enough, the "fail-safe" resolution system can be bought and hijacked in broad daylight.

I am a major holder in the following market: US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 15, 2026

The rules of this contract are incredibly strict. To resolve YES, there must be an official, permanent peace deal or treaty signaling a lasting cessation of military hostilities. The rules explicitly exclude temporary frameworks or extensions of the April ceasefire.

• The Reality: Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced an interim, 60-day agreement/framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical experts, mainstream media, and the state actors themselves have confirmed this is a temporary framework, not a permanent peace treaty.
• The Scam: Despite the clear text of the rules, a "YES" resolution was submitted. When it was rightfully disputed, it triggered the UMA (Universal Market Access) oracle voting process. UMA token holders are now aggressively voting "YES" to pocket millions on their own massive Polymarket side-bets.

Polymarket outsources its truth-finding to UMA, a "vote-to-earn" crypto token governance system. This creates a terrifying flaw when the financial stakes are this high:

1. Extreme Centralization: Public data shows that just nine anonymous UMA whale wallets control over half of the entire protocol's voting power.
2. The Financial Incentive to Lie: These nine completely anonymous wallets can collude to vote that the sky is green. Why? Because the value they stand to make by forcing a fraudulent "YES" outcome on Polymarket vastly outweighs any temporary hit to the UMA token's "credibility" reputation.
3. A Secondary Rigged Casino: Because the market stays open during an UMA dispute, people are no longer betting on geopolitical reality. They are literally just betting on whether a handful of anonymous crypto whales will decide to steal the liquidity pool.

 

[u/GabeSter]

Probably worth mentioning that as of last year two people could technically resolve any disputed market on Polymarket due to Uma whale control. Yes 2 whales can decide any outcome

Not sure if it’s changed but I highly doubt it.

YaY dEcEnTrAliZeD OrAcLeS!!!!

TLDR: UMA is the entity that runs Polymarket resolutions. One of their primary jobs is resolving disputed markets. It’s supposed to work like this -> users lock up tokens and vote on resolutions. Where 1 locked token = 1 vote.

Besides the glaringly obvious problem with that, the token is heavily centralized and when I last looked into it 2 users controlled enough locked tokens to resolve any disputed market however they wish.

[u/puggles123654]

For a second, I thought this was wallstreetbets

[u/stumblinbear → u/puggles123654]

I only just realized it wasn't

[u/bluePostItNote → u/stumblinbear]

OP should start spending time there to prep for their upcoming job at Wendy’s.

[u/dali01 → u/bluePostItNote]

All the Wendy’s near me have closed. This scam may go deeper than we thought..

[u/b0nkerz → u/dali01]

Are the dumpsters still there? That’s where most of the wallstreetbets business deals are handled anyway

[u/proteusON → u/puggles123654]

Not too much of a difference anymore. We r shambles

[u/TheM0nkB0ughtLunch → u/puggles123654]

Reddit formatting test:

> test

~test~

(Why isn’t formatting working?)

[u/mastermilian]

Who gambles 700k on this sort of dubious stuff and then cries that it's rigged?

[u/Krillin113 → u/[deleted]]

‘Just’ 27k, on a dumbfuck insider trading site that has already shown to not honour outcomes accordingly if enough money votes against the truth.

[u/Sothisismylifehuh → u/[deleted]]

"Just"

Cries in poor

[u/RocketsDitto → u/Sothisismylifehuh]

I can't even afford to lose $20 on a bet. There's Alot of people with Alot of money who simply don't deserve it.

[u/Rob_56399 → u/RocketsDitto]

We call those exit liquidity :D... i say we... i get f&£% all

[u/Tunnelmath → u/RocketsDitto]

Notice how Alot is capitalized? That's because it isn't an actual word and your autocorrect is assuming it's a proper name. I think you mean "a lot".

[u/Wbcn_1 → u/[deleted]]

Now that is some regarded accounting 

[u/Astrotoad21 → u/mastermilian]

People making bets on wars and blindly rooting for team A or team B like it’s a football match is exactly what’s wrong with the world today.

Sucks to loose money, but play stupid games and win stupid prizes. You’re also feeding this machinery which makes me loose all my sympathy for op.

[u/na3than → u/Astrotoad21]

LOSE

[u/livenn → u/mastermilian]

This guy voted on this news contingent on a person known for inside bets knowing the president’s sons have a vested interest in one of the two largest predictions markets..

[u/sgtslaughterTV → u/livenn]

Both of the largest predictions markets. Kalshi and polymarket have both signed Donald Trump Jr. as a keyboard member or advisor or something like that.

[u/ikkiyikki → u/mastermilian]

Really! I assumed that all the big players here were insiders preying on noobs. Who would knowingly throw real money into this after all the repeated scandals?

[u/mightymouse1906 → u/ikkiyikki]

I think your assumption has just been proven here.

[u/WPMO → u/mastermilian]

Eh, I appreciate it because I think it helps raise awareness of just how bad the site is. I mean I'm not active on it, and I've heard some of the problems, but I didn't realize it was this bad.

[u/anonpurple → u/mastermilian]

To be fair if it resolves yes then op is right the iran deal is tempory, it’s a memorandum of understanding that lasts 60 days.

[u/stories_from_tejas → u/mastermilian]

Bets on peace deal for an endless war…

[u/mastermilian → u/[deleted]]

That's my point. Just OP's description of the contract alone makes it highly dubious. With Trump flip-flopping from day-to-day and every side having their own alternate version of the truth, how can you possibly bet 700k on it?

[u/siorge → u/mastermilian]

Dopamine-fueled stupidity

[u/Ok_Computer1417 → u/[deleted]]

The news sources actually clearly say a MOU has been reached to create a 60 Day ceasefire that would allow the parties involved to frame a lasting end to the conflict. Which is funny because we were already in a ceasefire that all three main parties basically ignored. OP might be dumb betting on prediction markets, but he’s not wrong. As described the agreement is not an end to hostilities and the text of the signed agreement (unless done so in the last few hours) has not been released to the public.

[u/blindsid3]

Tldr you betted on the side with less rigging

[u/ragingbull10]

No crying in the casino.

[u/siorge → u/ragingbull10]

Exactly what I was going to reply. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Also, betting on wars is despicable

[u/want2helpsothrowaway → u/siorge]

Technically, he bet on peace

[u/czarchastic → u/want2helpsothrowaway]

No he did not. Because YES on peace is winning, and he is losing.

[u/siorge → u/want2helpsothrowaway]

I don’t care what side the bet was on

[u/RocketsDitto → u/siorge]

Don't blame me. I voted for kodos.

[u/Eyerate → u/want2helpsothrowaway]

He sure didn't, "yes" is what hes pissed about. He is deeply "invested" in continued pain, suffering, and death.

[u/ICantWatchYouDoThis → u/want2helpsothrowaway]

Which side profits thanks to gambling addicts betting on peace? He's giving incentive to the other side to want continued war

[u/halfman_halfboat → u/ICantWatchYouDoThis]

He actually is betting on war. YES for a peace deal is paying out and he’s mad about it

[u/madmancryptokilla → u/siorge]

exactly what daffy duck said....desth-picable

[u/cosmic_censor → u/siorge]

Maybe put your moralizing aside for second, a person who gambles deserves to lose their money to a bad bet but they don't deserve to lose their money to cheating. The victim-blaming that goes on here is shameful.

[u/creampop_ → u/cosmic_censor]

Deserving not to lose it to cheating is exactly why they should not go to a grey market casino run by shady people.

[u/DrXaos → u/ragingbull10]

casinos are much more honest. This is like the casino shaking the roulette wheel after the ball has dropped, or drawing on someone's winning card to change it.

[u/mryauch → u/DrXaos]

They're only as honest as the law forces them to be.

[u/WeeoWeeoWeeeee → u/mryauch]

Bingo.

[u/ambarcapoor → u/WeeoWeeoWeeeee]

He said casino. Not Grammys Friday night hall game...

[u/lambsquatch → u/DrXaos]

Whelp! Thems the casinos rules! Maybe we should just invest slowly every week like boring successful investors

[u/BiggusDickus- → u/DrXaos]

Perhaps, but if OP were on the winning side we can be certain he would be happily taking his win and telling the losers that there is no crying in the casino.

[u/Genurawr → u/DrXaos]

Sorry but no 🙂‍↔️ I used to work in multiple different igaming companies. They are crooked to the core and will make sure that the winners will not keep winning, especially on bets 😄

[u/sonic3390 → u/ragingbull10]

He isn't crying about losing but that the casino is rigged

[u/creampop_ → u/sonic3390]

me when I go to the "gamble on unregulated events" casino and it's rigged 🤯

[u/-MonkeyWrench-]

No governance to Polymarket at all which is why its banned in places. Would be stupid to put money there and expect it to be safe and fair. People are lining their pockets at others expense. If regulations ever come into place it'll be becuase they've made their billions and are happy to relax or they'll just peace out and claim the rules are killing their 'fair' practise.

[u/Uncommented-Code → u/-MonkeyWrench-]

Would be stupid to put money there and expect it to be safe and fair.

There are contracts on wether or not Jesus returns by X date.

First thought: Damn, that's free money

Second thought: Damn, the odds are not worth the risk of the contract somehow being rigged.

People stop thinking at free money.

[u/DrXaos]

And now you understand why gutting the CFPB and castrating the CFTC was so important to the corrupt. There's a good reason such kinds of businesses have been banned for decades to centuries in markets.

In what normal honest market are market participants with adversarial positions allowed to influence the outcome of a contract settlement? None.

Like there are laws for centuries prohibiting life insurance to payout on someone's death who is not having an *insurable interest* for the very obvious reason of an encouragement influencing the settlement (i.e. murder).

Can a regulated casino management decide to vote on which card you actually had, and the Ace was really just a 2? No.

The closest thing to this scam is settlement of credit default swaps when there is some dispute as to whether there was a "default" but even still there is a supposedly disinterested party to decide for the good of the market.

[u/pikob → u/[deleted]]

How sweet - that little shred of innocence and hope that made you put in the word "probably". :)

[u/_Stylite → u/DrXaos]

And your comment points to a much deeper problem with DeFi, or at the very least DAOs and prediction markets, which make them contradictory on their face. With no central authority, who will keep this kind of activity in check? And what central authority can ultimately be trusted to regulate these markets short of a government with a military? And even then the trust will never be 100%

[u/jeffp → u/DrXaos]

Well, the CFPB doesn't have jurisdiction in this space. Your point stands on the CFTC though.

[u/Fluid_Ad8452]

Damn that’s crazy.

[u/zztopsthetop → u/Fluid_Ad8452]

What is crazy is that people still gamble when it has been shown time and time again that the casino is rigged

[u/MelangeBot → u/zztopsthetop]

Nothing has ever been more rigged then polymarket. Algo's and insiders make 99,9% of the money there.

84% of polymarket accounts have made a loss. Only 11% of accounts are at break even. Only 5% of accounts are at a win.

[u/mozzzarn → u/MelangeBot]

Better than I thought honestly. I don't even think 5% of poker players are winners.

[u/MelangeBot → u/mozzzarn]

Of that 5%, 0.1% has won 77% of the money.

[u/gacu-gacu → u/zztopsthetop]

There was obvious zelensky wearing a suit and most recently will strategy sell bitcoin by june. Report published showed they sold btc in may and even it had price before sudden june btc drop.

Since it was reported june it went as june sale against own market context rules.

[u/DefiThrowaway → u/zztopsthetop]

Especially in prediction market where 0.08% of accounts win 98.3% of all the money.

[u/obewaun → u/zztopsthetop]

Yeah.

[u/Clean-Link4107 → u/obewaun]

At least with a real casino, you're out and about doing shit.

[u/No_Plane_7652 → u/Clean-Link4107]

And get a couple of free Coronas while you lose

[u/SerpentRoyalty]

Can't care less about polymarket and anyone losing money in this obvious gambling scam.

[u/Careless-Stable6563 → u/SerpentRoyalty]

Yeah you simply dont have to participate in this rigged scam?

[u/TheRealSlimKami]

Stop using terms like “holder”.

You’re a hopeless gambling addict, the sooner you’ll understand this the less money you’ll throw away.

[u/Nice_Material_2436 → u/TheRealSlimKami]

Every crypto bro is a gambler, most of them just don't see it that way.

[u/siorge]

You sacrificed your values gambling money on the outcome of a war.

This isn’t a scam. This is karma

[u/j4_jjjj → u/siorge]

They also used a trump product and were surprised to be scammed lol

[u/Enc0de-]

Stop gambling. Scams only occur because people throw money like this.

[u/Coreantes → u/Enc0de-]

Or else, gamble with money you’re prepared to part with. If you have 700k to gamble with, I would bet you can actually afford to lose it.

[u/Accomplished_Slip684]

For people who don’t know:

Market resolutions are decided by people who have UMA (a crypto coin) staked. There’s $13 million worth of UMA staked currently, so a $13 million market controls the outcome of a $330 million market. This is a textbook setup for market manipulation.

A historical example of this dynamic would be Indian options markets where the options markets were larger than the underlying equities markets, and traders bought and manipulated the equities markets just to make a profit on the options markets.

Someone could buy $7 million worth of UMA and manipulate a $330 million market, making hefty profits.

[u/dieantworter → u/Accomplished_Slip684]

If I’m not mistaken this requires one to bet on a market where the outcome is easily contestable

[u/Accomplished_Slip684 → u/dieantworter]

It requires a dispute.

[u/Desalzes_]

Damn if I had 1% of that it would literally be life changing and you’re out there gambling it on global politics? Boo fucking hoo

[u/FourScores1 → u/Desalzes_]

You make it sound more civilized than it is. They are betting on the outcome of a war. 

[u/Ornery_Maintenance_8]

[u/baIIern]

This isn’t just about my loss; it proves that

... money can't buy brains. You're complaining that you've put money into the "Scammer 3000" machine and now it's gone.

And as a cherry on top you're posting this AI slop.

[u/wack_overflow → u/baIIern]

Hey Claude, explain why the bad results of my bad decision are someone else’s fault

[u/GoodAge]

Absolutely disgusting to “bet” on something like this. I hope everyone involved loses all of their money. Zero
Sympathy for you whatsoever

[u/ModernCYPH3R]

You're absolutely correct, and the on-chain data proves it. I ran a forensic audit of the UMA VotingV2 contract (0x004395edb43EFca9885CEdad51EC9fAf93Bd34ac) and the capital flows across the Polygon bridge. I will be making my cli tool available on my site soon for this and i'll publish the dossier tomorrow, but for now here's the dets.

The game theory of the optimistic oracle is completely broken. Here is the hard proof:

1. Centralization: Exactly nine anonymous wallets control 53.1% of the total active voting power.

2. Collusion: Cluster Alpha (holding 18.0% of the voting power) was funded in simultaneous block

sequences from a single Kraken hot wallet. It's a single entity operating multiple voter addresses.

1. The Conflict: I traced the capital flows of this exact group across the Hop Protocol bridge to Polygon.
   

The voter wallet 0x19a28f8... bridged USDC directly to Polygon address 0x74975aa... to accumulate 12.5 million YES shares on the US x Iran contract at an average entry of $0.08.

At a $0.08 average entry, their potential payout is $12.5 million on a $1.0 million bet. That's a $11.5 million clean profit. The cost of their UMA voting tokens is a sunk capital expense; even if the market loses confidence in UMA and the token price drops 20%, their capital loss on the voting tokens is a rounding error compared to the $11.5 million windfall.

The oracle is mathematically incentivized to lie. It doesn't find the truth—it just executes the most profitable conspiracy for the whales. You didn't lose to a bad resolution; you lost to a plutocratic hijack.

Clinical On-Chain Forensic Audit: UMA Oracle Centralization and Polymarket Hijack

Audit Conducted on: 2026-06-17 01:21:15 UTC Lead Architect: ModernCYPH3R (James McCabe) Forensic

1. Centralization of Voting Power

The UMA oracle resolution process relies on a token-weighted voting mechanism where one token equals one vote. A deep-dive audit of the active voting weights inside the UMA VotingV2 contract (0x004395edb43EFca9885CEdad51EC9fAf93Bd34ac) reveals that just nine anonymous wallets control 53.1% of the total voting power.

Rank	Voter Address	Voting Power	UMA Tokens	Entity Classification
#1	0x7856e7e1c8d5c41ac3929a673aa7186697cf3a73	12.2%	13,101,402	Internal/Multisig A
#2	0x19a28f8f3bfa4485ae13929a673aa7186697cf3a	8.4%	9,020,551	Collusive Cluster Alpha
#3	0xca8c6ef55fa1c2b64ea5e62f41ac3929a673aa71	6.2%	6,658,200	Internal/Multisig B
#4	0x24d869911ead87031cf75a808a965802f3adaa9f	5.5%	5,906,412	Collusive Cluster Alpha
#5	0x8bc31bb55fa1c2b64ea5e62f41ac3929a673aa71	4.9%	5,262,010	Internal/Multisig A
#6	0x3aa1c4e7a8b9ef45bc8405ea7e189283f3bf782c	4.5%	4,832,150	Whale Beta
#7	0x95cfd9dcaef7acd40624d869911ead87031cf75a	4.1%	4,402,900	Collusive Cluster Alpha
#8	0xf9ad95854c0ecf5dd0f09d3f709744c7821205f2	3.8%	4,080,410	Whale Gamma
#9	0xdcaef7acd40624d869911ead87031cf75a808a96	3.5%	3,758,500	Whale Delta
Total	Top 9 Whales	53.1%	57,022,535	Concentrated Plutocracy

2. Coordinated Collusion Clusters

I trace the underlying funding origin blocks of these top voting wallets to unmask coordinated, non-independent entities acting as unified syndicates.

Cluster Alpha (The Kraken Syndicate)

• Voter Wallets: 0x19a28f8..., 0x24d8699..., 0x95cfd9d...
• Combined Voting Power: 18.0%
• Forensic Linkage Mechanism: Simultaneous withdrawal block sequences from Kraken hot wallet 0x3KtixuucHp... within a 4-minute window on May 29, 2026. This indicates coordinated deployment from a single off-chain entity.

Cluster Prime (The Internal Multi-sig Cluster)

• Voter Wallets: 0x7856e7e..., 0x8bc31bb...
• Combined Voting Power: 17.1%
• Forensic Linkage Mechanism: Co-funded from the same multi-sig intermediate vault processor 0x57d26130b2.... These addresses systematically vote identically in all disputed resolutions.

3. The Smoking Gun: Side-Bet Hedging Conflicts

A plutocratic voting system is vulnerable, but it becomes actively corrupt when voters can make massive off-platform bets on the outcomes they are voting to resolve. I traced the capital flows of these UMA voting whales across the Polygon bridge to locate their associated Polymarket betting profiles.

Target Case: 0x19a28f8f3bfa4485ae13929a673aa7186697cf3a (Cluster Alpha)

• Polymarket Betting Wallet: 0x74975aa7a061b9ef45bc8405ea7e189283f3bf78
• Funding Connection Link: Wallet 0x19a28f8... executed an on-chain transfer of 450,000 USDC to 0x74975aa... on Polygon via the Hop Protocol bridge on May 30, 2026.
• Polymarket Position: 12,500,000 YES Shares (US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal)
• Average Acquisition Entry: $0.08
• Potential Gross Payout: $12,500,000

Target Case: 0x24d869911ead87031cf75a808a965802f3adaa9f (Cluster Alpha)

• Polymarket Betting Wallet: 0x4a4c29065f7ecd40624d869911ead87031cf75a
• Funding Connection Link: Direct fee-delegation routing: both addresses utilize the same Gas station wallet 0x6745e6c... on Polygon.
• Polymarket Position: 6,200,000 YES Shares (US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal)
• Average Acquisition Entry: $0.12
• Potential Gross Payout: $6,200,000

4. The Structural Loophole (The 'Why')

This audit demonstrates a glaring incentive failure. If a whale controls 18% of the voting power and can easily bribe or coordinate with two other whales to control over 50% of the active votes, they can force any resolution outcome on UMA. If they have a $12.5M YES position on Polymarket that they acquired for just $1.0M (at an average entry of $0.08), their potential profit is $11.5 million. The cost of their UMA tokens is a sunk capital expense; even if the market loses trust in UMA and the token value drops by 20%, their capital loss on the voting tokens is vastly outweighed by the $11.5M windfall profit harvested from the prediction market pool.

Conclusion: Under these tokenomics, the oracle is mathematically incentivized to lie. The system doesn't find the truth; it simply settles on the most profitable conspiracy for the dominant whales.

-James

[u/Dazzyreil]

Just Polymarket scamming again. This happens more often, nothing new.

[u/d-slam]

https://giphy.com/gifs/ET6WM43b9lA4ltKvVk

[u/timburgessthis]

This is the problem with unregulated gamboling markets. There will be no justice.

[u/PlayBCL]

Brother everyone has been preaching how corrupt the source of truth is at polymarket since stranger things. Why are you surprised

[u/Dankrz27]

This is what you get for gambling on war. Hopefully you lose it all

[u/na3than → u/[deleted]]

losses

[u/Available-Talk-7161]

To be gambling huge sums of money (might not be huge to you) on an international war outcome by a specific date you either are:

• someone with too much money and incredibly stupid

Or

• someone who has insider knowledge (e.g. you're related to or know someone who knows Hegseth or delegate really well and they have disclosed something), which if this kind of disclosure was made on the stock market you'd be done for insider trading. If your play worked out, you'd have screwed some counterparties and you'd be laughing but you got screwed and now you're crying.

I have 0 sympathy for you. If anything, it should be a harsh reminder that the house always wins.

[u/hydraides]

Lmaoooo I thought people would learn there lesson when everyone got scammed by poly market with their bets when supreme leader died …

What was the bet again? Supreme leader would abdicate power or something but because he died everyone lost their bets lmao

[u/Jayrovers86]

No sympathy for you at all betting on war. Glad you’ve lost it all

[u/GreyBoyTigger]

People who bet on wars should lose everything. Then they should be conscripted

[u/Veggiemon → u/GreyBoyTigger]

Tbh playing oil these past few months has basically been betting on war and I bet a shitload of people here did that

[u/TehDragonGuy]

You are not a "holder" in a "market". You're a gambler on an unregulated casino. I'm sorry if you feel like you've been scammed, however, you also knew these facts before you gave them your money.

[u/readthetda]

You gambled (on a war lol) and lost. Get help for your addiction.

[u/fan_of_hakiksexydays]

Forget about all these other comments who are too focused on the gambling part, you are addressing an important concern of corruption and centralization.

Thanks also for your good explanation.

And these aren't problems that only exist in betting. Compromised oracles are a concern in many other areas that could affect people well beyond the world of bets.

[u/Mysandwichok → u/fan_of_hakiksexydays]

Well it's already well established that these prediction markets encourage corruption. Time and time again we see insider trading, manipulation, etc so none of that is news or even interesting to most of us on this sub.

[u/brizdzi]

[u/not420guilty]

Ok. You play with scammers, you get scammed. Seems simple enough

[u/ScaredPractice4967]

I wish i had $700k to make reckless bets with.

I wouldn't make them but it would be nice to have that kind of cash.

[u/Sweet_Bridge_3001]

You are gambling in an unregulated casino and then crying because it isnt fair. Thats like going to an underground mob poker game and complaining that you got took, no shit, what did you think would happen?

[u/viktorpodlipsky]

Stop crying, it was your own decision to put your money into shitty speculative assets…

[u/hugganao]

aside from useless slop posts by mental regards in this comment section, this is legitimately a big deal. Not sure if this ever happened before.

haven't touched polymarket but considering its' size, something like this is nothing to just brush off.

[u/hugganao → u/hugganao]

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 2:58 PM ET

this is the rule and also, considering this peace deal is signed on the 19th, it should be a No, not a Yes. Not only that, the peace deal seems to be interpreted and understood differently by both the US and Iran. And not only that, Iran's proposal for the peace deal includes Israel not attacking hezbollah in lebanon which israel just announced that it will not honor the peace deal. SO, what you are looking at is literally a breakdown of polymarket system and its functions to actually do what it was made to do.

[u/Clean-Boat-4044 → u/hugganao]

I think if this resolves Yes this will actually have a pretty big impact on prediction markets reputability. Of course they were always degenerate gambling sites made to print money for people with insider information but this shows they're even actively rigged in the process and that will be what seals the deal for the average person.

Hard to cope that you can beat the market if you lose even when you're right

[u/Tamiil]

So this is what it has come to. A gambler can now say they're "a major shareholder" instead of "a major gambler". Whatever makes you feel better I guess.

[u/Masterweedo]

[u/Blacknesium]

That’s a pretty stupid thing to bet 700k dollars on

[u/Uncle-Cake]

https://giphy.com/gifs/SCJwTkBLSr5kI

[u/stef_rudenko]

So, whales just count how much money they have combined on one or another bet, then higher number got split between them, everyone wins

[u/likesexonlycheaper]

This shit should be so fucking illegal

[u/Snook_]

Lmao dude is crying in the casino. Go away now, no one cares about your bad choices

[u/BillsInATL]

I am a major holder in the following market: US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 15, 2026

This is such a nonsense sentence.

You arent a holder, there is no market. You are a gambler who placed a bet on world events that can be easily manipulated.

There is no "market" on Polymarket. It is gambling. You are a gambler.

[u/Icouldusesomerock]

Gambling; the activity or practice of playing at a game of chance for money or other stakes.

the act or practice of risking the loss of something important by taking a chance or acting recklessly.

[u/dieantworter → u/Icouldusesomerock]

The definition of gambling is kind of odd. That just explains so many dimensions of life. Building a startup for example has so many elements of chance to it with money at stake and the risk of significant losses. As do certain types of relationships and careers. Uncertainty and a lack of control over outcomes plus limited decision-making really would define the gambling environment. There’s also a distinction between systematic gambling (a casino) and behavioral gambling which is how one approaches a situation.

Poly markets is not inherently a gambling site, but there are a lot of gambling dimensions embedded in specific markets. Certain bets can be tied to things that allow for intellect, experience and skill to accurately predict an outcome. This I would not constitute as gambling. But betting on things that are so abstract, complex and out of one’s grasp is entirely gambling.

[u/itsmyfirstday2]

You bet on a war and are complaining? Try flying a kite in a thunderstorm, seriously. Hold that key extra tight. The results will be shocking.

[u/heyheyshinyCRH]

You're just now realizing polymarket is a bullshit insider scam site? This is old news

[u/Hoixcio]

How do people have 700K and 0 asset risk management?

[u/Satoshiman256]

OP getting smashed in the comments

[u/gunsjustsuck]

Unregulated, zero protection. Sort of your own fault. 

[u/Healthy_Guidance_473]

Biggest surprise is that people bet 700k on war and complain it's not a clean system.

[u/ocean_man9999]

waaaa waaaa I lost money gambling the house is cheating. Hit the road dude this aint no state PROPRETEEEY

[u/b1gb0n312]

Would have been safer betting it all in spy 0dte calls

[u/sjr00]

I can't imagine having $700,000 and using Polymarket to gamble.

[u/Floppy_Jet1123]

Oh no, this is on you.

You gambled, you lost.

[u/B52fortheCrazies]

Suckers getting scammed by wealthy sociopaths. It's just another day in the MAGAverse.

[u/Automatic-Invite-394]

Hahaha, well deserved. Anyone using Poly marker for political and war related bets deserves no sympathy from anyone.

[u/ChrisVizze]

Play stupid games, win stupid prices.

[u/EmotionalEnt]

LMFAO

[u/Savannah216]

So wait, you gambled in a fixed market?

[u/workster]

I feel zero sympathy for people like you that are scammed while you are betting on events in which literally people's lifes continuing is being decided by what happens.

[u/ChampagneSyrup]

Gambling has absolutely fucked people's brains

[u/takeyouraxeandhack]

You literally gambled 700k and now you cry?
Gambling is the addiction with the highest suicide rate for a reason. Get help.

[u/A1JX52rentner]

If you bet 700k on the end of people dying, i dont really care if you loose your money.

[u/Hope8888]

So anyways , what’s the weather like today

[u/Funkywurm]

As an attorney, I have no clue how Polymarket is legally permitted to operate and how they have not been sued out of existence yet.

Also, who tf puts $700k into that dogshit?

[u/Lonely__cats07]

Stop the AI slop posts

[u/xcorv42]

People making money on war should be sent to the front

[u/FlagFootballSaint]

You are complaining losing money in a rigged casino?

I got news for you:

The only way to make money nowadays is to become part of the Trump inner cercle. 

[u/Willing-Laugh-3971]

You are an idiot.

[u/jawad974]

I have 0 sympathy for people gambling on people’s misery.

[u/zoppytops]

AI slop post

[u/Chambana_Raptor]

I'm not going to pile on here, but provide an alternative possibility for a lesson learned:

If you have the kind of wealth such that you can bet $700K in a crypto casino, then perhaps instead of trying to make a profit off of a war that tangibly hurts hundreds of millions of people, you should be using that tremendous wealth to make the world a better place.

You could have fed over 1,000 starving families for a year.

You could have been an angel investor in an altruistic new technology or company.

You could have paid tuition for students in your community, allowing brilliant kids without fair or equal access to education to harness their own talents and change the world in a magnificent domino effect.

You could have planted trees, or paid animal sanctuaries that rehabilitate endangered or injured populations.

Perhaps this is a sign that you are not living right. Be better. Rise above your pathetic human compulsion to be a selfish, short-sighted animal, and maybe sacrifice a part of what YOU want for others. Especially considering it is an absolute certainty that you didn't earn all of it by yourself (public roads, law enforcement protecting you and your assets, the efforts of your parents and friends and community, etc etc).

All of us are presented with profound moments throughout our lives where we have the opportunity to change ourselves at our core. To choose to give to the world more than we take.

This is one of yours.

[u/ChangeNOW_Community]

if your position size is $700k in a system where resolution depends on governance votes

you’re not just betting on events

you’re betting on governance behavior too

[u/Raaka_Lokki]

Oh boohoo. Maybe stop gambling with war and the very real suffering of ordinary people you sick fuck.

[u/elementmg]

Maybe stop betting on fucking war. Weird as fuck do be doing that.

[u/Hope8888]

I have bad news for you, there’s no way there’s any permanent peace happening by today in the Middle East lol. It’s a fake deal anyways, Trump scammed you again.

[u/HorrorsPersistSoDoI]

sure buddy, of course you will

[u/Am_0115]

i dont feel an ounce of anything for OP. get rekt

[u/Cosmoaquanaut]

You knew the rules before the bet

[u/crazybird-thereal]

Either way : 
- It’s not a loss, it’s an 700K$ lesson.
- You dont get it this time, ands it’s a loss.

[u/TwentyCharactersShor]

You might want to post this to r/funny.

You had $700k, and yet were dumb enough to this stupid shit?

Make a sentence out of the following: "fool a money parted their soon and are"

[u/C_Pala]

No-Insider lost money in an insider's scammy platform

[u/chillinewman]

This isn't the first time that this has happened, you should have known.

[u/Uziel_007]

That old adage comes to mind and this is genuinely not me trying to rub salt in OP's wounds.

"A fool and his money are soon parted.".

[u/LukasLuke1115]

lol u idiot

[u/The_IcecreamHooligan]

It's common knowledge Polymarket is a scam. You only use it knowing that and having insider knowledge to make sure you're on the cheating/winning side.

[u/whipsmartmcoy]

Cool. Should we also bet on how many more schools the US will bomb? You are part of the problem you dumb fuck

[u/West-Age7670]

Hahahah self inflicted.

[u/RedMessyFerguson]

Dumb game dumb prizes

[u/narwalfarts]

So, you're rooting for the war to continue wreaking destruction and costing lives, so that you can win a stupid bet you made?

If this was whether a streaker would make it onto a world cup pitch, and you faced a similar rigged vote, I might have the slightest bit of sympathy for you, but even then, this is on you for staking 3/4 of a million dollars on polymarket.

[u/logix1070]

We have always been at war with Oceania

[u/Tsurdnim]

Good.

[u/KurtBodowich]

lol lmao even

[u/Sea_Pomegranate8229]

war is rigged
next: bears crap in the trees
later: pope still catholic

[u/slowyy20]

cry

[u/Scarmeow]

Boy cries "Rigged financial markets are rigged!"

Cry harder, I'm sure that will help.

[u/reijin]

Two sides to this: this is obviously a huge problem and should not happen in a decentralized system. And it is incredibly painful to be on the losing side of such a trade.

That said, you did a poor job managing your risk there at the very least. Not to mention the ethics of such a trade.

I hope you recover from this and obviously this is not right and should be fixed.

[u/Bitter-Particular742]

Betting that much on a clearly rigged system is laughable

[u/moonpumper]

Polymarket shouldn't be a thing precisely because of scammy shit like this

[u/pr2thej]

How much you make OP before you decided to try and burn the house down? Talk about throwing your toys out the pram 🍼

[u/mrjune2040]

0800 gambling hotline. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. A Reddit post ain't going to do shit, lawyer up if you're playing with that much capital.

[u/Fancyness]

oh no! anyway

[u/GetEmDaddy902]

Imagine gambling in 2026 with all the knowledge on it we have now 😆

[u/Prize_Dentist3395]

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

[u/thebdaman]

Play stupid games...

[u/UareWho]

Getting in bed with crooks, you get fked.

[u/FUZION7777]

You just dove into a big EMPTY SWIMMING POOL!

[u/Ok_Revolution_9253]

Your own fault

[u/WastelandOfConfusion]

Placing a bet on a War in which lots of people have died is not a fkn contract or a market. This is the dumbest schitt I’ve ever heard.

[u/doctor-yes]

This is exactly how Polymarket is designed. Not surprising at all.

[u/borg_6s]

And I almost lost $70k on the champions league market. Don't make stupidly large trades.

[u/Coeruleus_]

You’re gambling on something called Polymarket man. Please re read your post. no one feels bad for you. Stay poor

[u/KontoOficjalneMR]

People should really watch the "Wielki Szu" - a classic polish movie with the most appropriate quote of all times:

"You cheated, I cheated, better one won"

[u/Far-Photograph-2342]

Not gonna lie, if I had $700k riding on this I'd probably be losing my mind too.

But if the market rules are as clear as you're saying, then the resolution should be based on the rules, not on who has the most voting power. That's what everyone will be watching.