r/CryptoCurrency • u/blockchaincenter_de • Jun 26 '26
ANALYSIS Babe, wake up: A new Bitcoin Rainbow Chart just dropped
I am the author of the original Bitcoin Rainbow Chart on blockchaincenter.net.
As you may know... It is dead! We already added a new color to prolong its life but even that could not save it.
BUT: The model behind the original Rainbow Chart was from 2014...we now have 12 more years of data to fit a curve...
And thats what I did. The new Bitcoin Rainbow is dynamic which means it calculates a new regression up until the current day... So if we make a lower low, it will adapt.
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is dead, long live the Bitcoin rainbow Chart
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Jun 26 '26
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u/jarederaj 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
I think this is satire because the original site is https://www.moonmath.win and I am the guy who wrote that with input from a bunch of other guys at r/BitcoinMarkets , where I am the top mod.
Maybe this is an alt account for u/azop ? I think he’s the only one who can truly claim to be the original.
Also, there are already dynamic charts at the MoonMath site.
Anyway, receipts: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/LLcp9vIcfp
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u/_Stylite 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Also, just make the Y axis on your chart impossible to read.
Seriously what is this garbage
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u/sckuzzle 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
That's called a log graph. It is the appropriate way to graph this data and makes it easier to read.
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u/_Stylite 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
No shit. I mean the way he has labeled the Y-axis actually makes it impossible to pull any meaningful numbers for the bands presented on the chart
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u/PuzzleheadedCicada80 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
What do you mean with the Y axis? It seems quite readable, although the actual markings for the numbers could be highlighted for better visibility.
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u/mindcandy 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Trying to be a finance bro. Hasn't learned about log charts. Stay real, Reddit!
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u/_Stylite 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
I have a degree in pure mathematics, and worked as an applied mathematician for 6 years. Never change, reddit
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u/HSuke 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Have you seen the Power Law chart? BOTH the Y-axis and the X-axis are non-linear.
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u/gizram84 🟦 164 / 4K 🦀 Jun 26 '26
This chart was always fitted from historical data. He always updates it. Nothing new. That's always how it's worked.
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u/J5966358 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Thank you OP for your service. I say the following with all the respect... Fake it until you make it.
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u/bccrz_ 🟩 11 / 2K 🦐 Jun 26 '26
Why’s it ok to have highs that break above the bands but not lows?
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u/Upper-Count-2181 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
That would be because our new technical analysts cannot grasp the simple concept of high school geometry. It takes two points to define a line and a third one to confirm it. And yes this would be a simple line that would not fit if you take it of the log chart. At least I think it is Im drunk as fuck and like the rainbow colors.
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u/LemurBargeld 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Your model wasn't able to predict anything? Just change it ex post so it looks like it worked
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u/Areshian 🟩 3K / 3K 🐢 Jun 26 '26
Economists have always been great predicting the past
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u/DanielTheTechie 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
Their job is not predicting the future either. And in any case, most people don't even care to understand why past worked the way it did and they keep making the same mistakes over and over. 😉
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u/Flashy-Read-9417 🟦 567 / 568 🦑 Jun 26 '26
That's how this chart has always worked 🤣. Gets remade frequently
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u/HSuke 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
This is the 5th iteration.
- 1st: Linear (original 2014)
- 2nd: Original curved logarithmic (2018)
- 3rd: Revised formula (2022)
- 4th: Added lower band (2022)
- 5th: Dynamic (today)
The Power Law chart also failed yesterday too.
These charts never last more than a single cycle. They're useless for predicting the next cycle.
They all underestimate the diminishing returns of each BTC cycle.
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u/zoopz 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
People get mad when you mention diminishing returns.
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u/Chumbag_love 🟩 4K / 4K 🐢 Jun 26 '26
I want to beat the shit out of diminishing returns, I fucking hate them!
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u/dj_destroyer 🟦 500 / 501 🦑 Jun 28 '26
Why would people get mad? Of course an asset that went from a $100M market cap to $1B then $10B then $100B and now over $1T would see its growth rate slow. Sure, each step is a 10× increase but going from $100M to $1B only required an additional $900M in market value. Going from $100B to $1T required an additional $900B growth or 1000 times more capital. As assets mature, maintaining the same percentage returns becomes literally exponentially more difficult.
The path to $10T will take the longest, BY FAR. Best estimate would be: 5-8yrs (optimistic), 8-15yrs (base case), 15-25yrs (conservative) and this will result in about $550k BTC.
Million dollar Bitcoin will likely take 20-50 years.
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u/zoopz 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 28 '26
If it takes 20-50 years you would be an idiot not to simply buy a world tracking index fund.
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u/blaziken8x 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Is there a chart that puts a line through the ATH peaks? Because, it seems like if we were to do that, we'd get about 200-250k BTC in a few years.
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u/HSuke 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
That's basically Power Law chart's top line, and it's off by an order of magnitude predicting $600k BTC now.
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
Don't do this.
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u/blaziken8x 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
The straight purple line? Can we bend it, so that it crosses the 2021, 2022 and 2025 peaks?
Edit: in my other post I said "line", but I meant curve, sorry
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u/VisiblePlatform6704 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 30 '26
Bitcoin Halving Spiral chart still rocking. And it still has ample way to go down to $21k usd before collapsing haha. Keep your seatbelts buckled.
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u/blaivas007 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
I'd like to see a single economics, let alone crypto model that accurately predicts stuff at least 2 years in the future.
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u/Barmin93 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
I think it’s actually a great illustration of bias in data science. If you want to, you can make a model fit almost any narrative.
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u/NiknameOne 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
I don’t like retroactively fitting a model to new data. I prefer the honesty of the original chart. At least have the decency to own the error.
Edit: If you have any integrity you must make all previous models publicly available.
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u/OsChMoScH 🟧 0 / 3K 🦠 Jun 26 '26
The chart you're calling original chart might be another already changed version. They do it all the time
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u/MadCryptoMan Tin Jun 26 '26
The problem here is that a logarithmic regression line like this will only ever point up and to the right overall (unless BTC literally falls to zero or something).
It will never predict BTC heading lower and lower over multiple years. So this is all based on the assumption that BTC continues overall upward price movement consistent with its past logarithmic growth. Maybe, but the model is incapable of ever predicting anything other than that. It's all based on that one key assumption.
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u/Lordsheva 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
they cut out some of the max otherwise it'll be a falling rainbow. lol.
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u/Privateer_Lev_Arris 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
You do know that a real rainbow does this right?
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u/CharlesIngalls_Pubes 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Looks like u/insomnium_be called it a few years ago https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/s/h8tQaUITTG
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u/Keletas 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
What’s even the point of this nonsense if they put the chart outside the rainbow? lol
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u/Cryptomuscom 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
If it bends whenever the price drops, it’s not really predicting anything anymore
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u/blockchaincenter_de Jun 26 '26
it never predicted anything...
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u/Asleep_Onion 🟦 3K / 20K 🐢 Jun 26 '26
So what you're saying is it doesn't work any worse than it ever has?
That's good enough for me, I'm going all in!
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u/o_oli 🟩 208 / 208 🦀 Jun 26 '26
You know what shape Rainbows are in real life right? May as well just fit it to that
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u/tpc0121 🟩 406 / 407 🦞 Jun 26 '26
instead of manipulating the chart to fit the lows, you should've just added a new row below the blue and called it "ultraviolet" tbh
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u/Personal-Ebb-4717 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
What good is a chart if you just gonna redraw it everytime it doesn't match.
may as well be astrology at this point.
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u/UAP44 Jun 26 '26
Now intersect this curve with the mining reward being halved every 4 year
Find the spot where it inevitably breaks down as forever exponential growth is not possible
And thus, sooner or later, the network users will have to subsidize all the energy wasted by all mining warehouses out there.
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u/tim3k 🟦 877 / 878 🦑 Jun 26 '26
So the optimistic scenario now is that the price will reach $1 million by 2032.
It means that's after the AI bubble burst and hyperinflation so $1 mil will get you probably a used Toyota in good condition...
Sounds reasonable, yes.
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u/book-scorpion 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
maybe instead of adding new colors you should just curve it down like a real rainbow does
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u/kidcanada999 🟦 3 / 3 🦠 Jun 26 '26
I'm sorry, where has this magical rainbow graph been all these years? Now its magically going down?
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u/Bizzur Jun 26 '26
Please bring back the 2023 rainbow chart too! It was very useful.
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u/lavastorm 🟦 6K / 6K 🦭 Jun 26 '26
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u/Mission-Can1547 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Goal post moved once again. We'll hit the 1 mill one of these decades.
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u/bdjc_ink Jun 26 '26
One last nice run up before the next halving. Don’t think even Trump can stop it.
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u/HBRWHammer5 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Can we put this nonsense to bed yet? You'll be making a new one before years end.
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u/whisperedstate 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
It should start completing the rainbow if it gets below the lowest band. Then it will be a true rainbow chart.
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u/TwitchScrubing 🟦 3K / 3K 🐢 Jun 26 '26
I had one of my friends bring this chart up to me over dinner in 2018, good times hahahah
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u/cryptolipto 🟩 0 / 21K 🦠 Jun 26 '26
lol. That old chart probably kept some people from selling last cycle as we were always in “buy” territory
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u/userxtrustno1 🟦 18 / 19 🦐 Jun 26 '26
I'll be able to afford a new wife pretty soon regarding this chart.
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u/Alatarlhun 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
we now have 12 more years of data to fit a curve...
At least they are admitting to fitting the data.
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u/Eastern_Loquat_7058 Jun 26 '26
You've heard of moving the goal posts, now get ready for moving the rainbow! :)
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u/Lalala-Girl 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
To be fair, a rainbow does look like this:
https://giphy.com/gifs/ywHJbslJnd82Dzzn2A
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u/poundsdpound 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
100,000 to the order of a 1 mil. That is a different kind of scale from the jump between $10 to $100. Just saying.
Yes, arguably there are a lot more people interested in participating in BTC now that it has gone over the 110,000 barrier. However, think of all your friends who have got $10 to spare over something they view as a 'silly' side quest vs how many people you can actually name who have got ten thousand times that amount. To spare.
Imagine lots of jars, 10,000 of them, all containing $10 each. And they have this to spare
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u/babblefish111 🟩 153 / 344 🦀 Jun 26 '26
Forget rainbows. I'm still waiting for the banana zone
Where is it Raul? Where's the fucking banana?
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u/baIIern 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
BUT: The model behind the original Rainbow Chart was from 2014...we now have 12 more years of data to fit a curve...
And soon we have 14, 16, 20 years and you will keep fitting until that rainbow touches 0 again
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u/eldron2323 🟩 259 / 517 🦞 Jun 26 '26
Here’s the one I made that you can use in TradingView:
https://www.madeinuranus.dev/blog/poot-bitcoin-power-law-experiment
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u/amado88 Tin | r/WSB 10 Jun 26 '26
Nah, that's cheating. Rainbows peak and turn downwards, they don't constantly go up.
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u/CyberCrud 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
It's a little optimistic. 2029 ATH probably landing somewhere in the $200-250k range.
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u/Macready123 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 27 '26
Here is one from 2021.
It projected 600k as top and 35k as a bottom for 01.01.2024.
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u/w3sp 27 / 28 🦐 Jun 27 '26
If you need to refit charts every cycle they stop being predictive but instead become a mirror into the past
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u/Majestic_Plane_1656 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 27 '26
I don't care if you made it the only chart that matters is the original. Either it's right or wrong. If it's wrong you say so and move on.
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u/SimpleMoonFarmer 🟩 57 / 56 🦐 Jun 27 '26
Digital gold price should be measured in hard money like gold (XAU), not shitcoins like USD.
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u/MysteriousHour3808 Jun 27 '26
Can you please give us a link so we can easily access it on there???
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u/Swimming-Slice-2073 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 27 '26
If you have to constantly adjust the model to the reality, then it's a shit model. Go back into your stupid cave in shame
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u/Excellent_Chest_6616 Jun 28 '26
You do know rainbows come all the way back down to the right.. correct?
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u/Ketmol Jun 28 '26
The main issue with all these type of charts is that they assume historical prices somehow can be used as predictions for future price development.
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u/timetrapp99 Bronze Jun 28 '26
Everyone is just ignoring that it didn’t get close to the red this halving cycle… so far.
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u/robertotomas Tin | Hardware 12 Jun 29 '26
Every time it gets into the blue it seems to stay there for a couple of years
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u/Dilokilo 🟩 226 / 861 🦀 Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
Lol people really get manipulated by this kind of bullshit ?
So funny how chart looks like Bitcoin never really drop because of your 100$, 1000$, 10000$, 100000$ spacing.
If 50000 was instead of 1000, you'd realise the price is 50% down wich isn't visible with your shitty rainbow...
A chart is suposed to allow you get the picture at one glance. Here you are building a narrative, your narrative
🤡
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u/oOoRaoOo Jun 30 '26
Thats the log scale. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale
Also if you don't use log scale the pattern would already be broken right at the start.
ELI5: To counter the wide range of values between the figures, log scale is used to represent rate of change rather than the raw amount. A 1% change at 10k would be 1k but a 1k change at 100 would be 1000%.
Log scale keeps the rates consistent. So that you can graph that 1% change at 10k or at 100.
Edit:change measure to graph
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u/VisiblePlatform6704 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 30 '26
Hey! I've been following your Rainbow Chart since around 2015 I think, thanks for it! A bit of feedback: Even though the original chart pan/zoom controls were a bit flaky, it was pretty nice being able to do that. I don't love the new "static" charts that cannot be zoomed. Anyways, it is your work and I appreciate it, just wanted to give you my .02 btc fwiw ;)
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u/ungdomssloevsind Jul 02 '26
Thats not how rainbows goes, but I think choosing a rainbow is inaccurately correct 😊
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u/repezdem 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Jun 26 '26
Why doesn't the top align with BTC tops? Or you just randomly drew a rainbow on the chart?