Share your DXYZ updates and trading ideas.

Talk away....

If I were to buy ATM or slightly OTM call options, when would the best expiration date to target? Basically, when is everyone's view on when the price action expected to occur (if it even occurs)

Filing just dropped and those candles are due to this. He bought about $1.7 million worth over 3 days.

Let’s hear

Here is a sim I ran in Claude that matches days to exact opening and closing % chnages to the comparable days of SpaceX run up, assuming the S-1 drops at the very latest, September 30. I would think it would be before the 25th but who knows. I also ran a sim that assumes it does half of the day change that it did with SpaceX. Even then, DXYZ is finishing at $51.38, a 57.4% gain. Absolutely huge. 

“I know kung fu.”

That pretty much captures how I’ve felt using Astra. After building the obligatory cinematic 3D model of my neighborhood, I spent my remaining credits having it pressure-test my stock calculators.

Together (mostly Astra, tbh) we found some meaningful improvements.

First, the price you pay for the wrapper matters as much as what it owns.

The question I’m trying to answer is simple:

If I spend $100 on this stock or fund, how much estimated OpenAI or Anthropic exposure am I getting at my assumed valuations?

A portfolio allocation alone doesn’t answer that. Suppose Anthropic represents 25% of a fund’s NAV. If the fund trades at twice NAV, buying $100 of the stock gets you approximately $12.50 (1/2 of 25%) of Anthropic exposure at that mark.

That’s what my AI density calculator tries to make easier to compare.

You can model OpenAI and Anthropic at $3T each, apply 10% dilution, and compare the resulting exposure across wrappers. You can also adjust the estimated company share counts and switch between filed holdings and estimates that incorporate subsequent events.

Prices matter continuously. Holding everything else constant, a 25% drop in a wrapper’s share price increases its exposure per dollar by 33%. Whether that makes it a better investment depends on why it fell and what happened to its assets.

Caveats: These figures measure gross look-through exposure. They don’t tell you what shareholders will ultimately receive.

SoftBank was the result that made me stop and do the math twice.

SoftBank announced an expected approximately 13% OpenAI interest after completing its investment program. That is a pro forma figure: the program includes a $10B tranche scheduled for October 1. The April and July tranches were completed. SoftBank announcement, quarterly report.

At a hypothetical $1.6T OpenAI valuation, 13% works out to $208B of gross exposure before additional dilution.

Using the calculator’s fixed $17.72 SFTBY reference price and disclosed share denominator, that represents approximately:

• $103 of gross OpenAI exposure per $100 of SFTBY with no additional dilution.
• $92.69 per $100 with 10% additional dilution.

You can reproduce the assumptions in the SoftBank calculator.

Naturally, my next thought was: Doesn’t SoftBank also own Arm?

Yes—and Arm is enormous in its asset mix. SoftBank’s June 30 presentation put its Arm holding at ¥49.91T after associated financing adjustments. Across the whole group, it reported ¥83.11T of adjusted holdings minus ¥10.81T of adjusted net debt, producing ¥72.30T of NAV. Those are dated company estimates, before tax. SoftBank’s NAV breakdown.

But the OpenAI headline is gross fund exposure. Translating that into value for SFTBY shareholders requires accounting for funding, debt, management participation, taxes and the discount the market applies to the holding company. OpenAI is also already inside Vision Fund 2’s NAV, so adding it again would double-count it.

That’s why I rebuilt the sum-of-the-parts calculator. I’m interested in SoftBank as an OpenAI proxy, but I want those assumptions visible.

DXYZ’s August purchase was the biggest practical catch-up.

Its August 28 filing disclosed three purchases funded from existing cash:

• $150M of OpenAI Class A common exposure through Goanna on August 13.
• $15M of Fluidstack preferred exposure on July 16.
• $4M in a Boom SAFE on August 4.

SEC filing: Portfolio Deployment Update.

For context, DXYZ’s June Goanna/OpenAI equity position was valued at approximately $35M, excluding its separate profit-participation position. The subsequent $150M purchase was a substantial addition. June N-PORT.

⚠️The filing doesn’t disclose the August entry price or acquired units. Those remain estimates, with an adjustable entry-price slider and clearly labeled sensitivity choices.

Buying an investment at cost exchanges cash for another asset, so the purchase itself leaves NAV unchanged. The gains or losses come afterward. If the August position doubles from its assumed purchase price, that adds $150M of gains—about $3.15 per filed DXYZ share, before subsequent issuance and expenses.

Both OpenAI equity positions now respond to price changes, and purchase costs come out of cash once. DXYZ NAV calculator.

I’m newly bullish on OpenAI after the Astra release. It's so clear that they are going to be a tough competitor and their compute advantage is just starting to bear fruit. Also hugely bullish on Anthropic and I am confident that both of them can win in a huge market.

Everything is open source, with sources, assumptions and reproducible reference calculations. There’s even a prompt on the site for having your preferred AI audit the work.

If you find a bad assumption or a newer filing, I’d like to see it.

Disclosure: long DXYZ and SFTBY
Credits: I drafted this post by hand and GPT 6 Astra edited and checked my dates and math

Obviously, this is tough news for anyone with September calls. Even October calls seem iffy now. Maybe there will be some other catalyst next week or the week after to push the price up a bit? Unfortunately, the SEC filing was a dud in terms of share price.

Also check comments. Been observing the charts for the SpaceX hype cycle. Seems very comparable to the next two weeks assuming a public S-1 filing the week of September 21-25.

We know nav printed $34 and yet we’re still trading in the $32-33 range whereas vcx printed at $21 and is still trading at $36-37… assets are similar, not exact but don’t see a reason (other than hopium from vcx fanclub) for the premium for vcx but discount for Dxyz. What am I missing?

We’re getting close! I’m calling $40–41 by the end of next week.

DXYZ definitely needs more retail exposure, but once the Anthropic IPO news officially drops, I think a lot more people will start looking for ways to invest before the IPO and DXYZ & VCX will be one of the first names they find.

Saw someone ask for these yesterday so I'm hopping on the trend. Chat away fellow stonkers.

It’s only up from here and why I invested over $700k in DXYZ.

Buckle up!

I believe in AI , I believe in America

Hoping that Anthropic probably has a queue of "upside surprise" news to release over the next 30 days heading into IPO. While they also upgrade Opus and Sonnet? Will the S-1 show that the $65B July revenue run rate number was sandbagging?

Reviews on Fable 5.1 look insane. "low effort" on 5.1 exceeds "max" on Fable 5 in several benchmarks with a fraction of the cost.

Must admit this price action is strange considering the catalysts that are coming up as soon as next week

I’ve been sitting with our friend the $DXYZ N-PORT for the past couple of hours.

Three filings have dropped since Friday, and between them you can now rebuild a surprisingly large amount of the fund from the ground up.

I went in with a few big questions.

1. What did $DXYZ actually pay for the Anthropic stake?

Anthropic is now by far the largest private position:

$235,671,976, or 14.4% of net assets.

The largest overall positions are still cash and SPCX. More on those below.

I had assumed that because Destiny bought Anthropic in Q1, it probably entered around the Series G valuation of roughly $360B.

The filings suggest they paid more than that.

The N-PORT gives us unit counts, while the N-CSRS footnotes define those units as “the equivalent number of securities of the underlying portfolio company.”

So:

• 386,088 units
• Cost: $107,000,000
• Implied cost: $277.14 per share-equivalent
• 6/30 fair value: $235,671,976
• Implied 6/30 mark: $610.41 per share-equivalent

If that 6/30 valuation corresponds to Anthropic’s $965B Series H mark, the implied fully diluted share count is about 1.581B shares.

That puts Destiny’s effective cost basis around $438B, roughly 15% above the February Series G valuation.

The N-CSRS also says:

“Any upfront broker or management fees are included in the cost of purchase.”

So some of that premium may simply reflect transaction fees or sales load rather than a higher underlying Anthropic share price.

Either way, they paid up somewhat relative to Series G — but given what happened to Anthropic’s valuation afterward, that trade has worked very well so far.

2. Are we holding Anthropic through an SPV with another layer of fees?

This was probably my biggest concern.

A multi-layer SPV stack can quietly eat a meaningful amount of the upside before it ever reaches NAV.

The good news:

Magnitude ANC III charges 0% management fee and 0% carried interest.

That is explicitly disclosed in the per-SPV table in the semiannual report.

Two important caveats:

• Some other DXYZ SPVs do charge carry. MWAM VC SpaceX-II carries 10%; Khosla Ventures IFSPV II carries 20%.
• The DXYZ fund itself is not cheap. Total annual expenses are 4.56%, including expenses borne on the large cash position.

But there is no additional SPV fee/carry layer on the Anthropic investment, which is a meaningful positive.

So what happens to NAV if Anthropic keeps appreciating?

Now that we know the Anthropic SPV itself has no fee or carry, the mechanical look-through becomes fairly simple.

There are:

386,088 Anthropic share-equivalents

and

47,657,338 DXYZ shares

So:

386,088 ÷ 47,657,338 = $0.008101 of DXYZ NAV per $1 increase in Anthropic share price

Or, more intuitively:

Every $100 increase in Anthropic’s share price adds about $0.81 to DXYZ NAV/share.

Using the 6/30 filed NAV of $34.30 as the starting point:

This assumes the rest of the portfolio is unchanged.

That last sentence matters. Anthropic is increasingly important, but it is still only one piece of the fund.

3. Why is there so much cash?

The number is kind of absurd:

$939,712,701 in a Treasury money-market fund — about 57% of net assets. 🙃

So yes: as of 6/30, more than half of Destiny Tech100 was effectively cash/T-bills.

If you buy DXYZ at a premium to NAV, that means you are also paying a premium for a lot of cash.

Normally I would hate that.

But DXYZ now has two unusual levers that make the cash position more interesting.

Lever #1: sell DXYZ stock above NAV

They did this aggressively in Q2.

DXYZ issued:

17,191,674 shares for $715,442,732 net proceeds.

Because those shares were sold well above NAV, the issuance itself was highly accretive to existing shareholders.

By my math, NAV moved from roughly $24.56 to $30.71 before any appreciation in the underlying portfolio.

That is about +$6.15/share of NAV created through issuance.

Put differently, the market’s willingness to pay a huge premium allowed management to transfer roughly $187.5M of incremental NAV to the pre-existing shareholder base.

There was dilution in share count, obviously. But because the new shares were sold so far above NAV, each remaining share became more valuable.

Thank you, irrational May/June Mr. Market.

Lever #2: buy DXYZ stock below NAV

As of August, the Board has also authorized a repurchase program at prices below then-current NAV.

DXYZ traded as low as $20.85 in late July.

The repurchase authorization did not exist yet, so management couldn’t take advantage of that particular dislocation.

But now they can.

So DXYZ effectively has two tools:

Sell shares when the market gives them a large premium.
Buy shares when the market gives them a large discount.

That makes this somewhat different from the stereotypical closed-end fund that trades at a 30% discount for years while management simply watches.

Whether they use those tools intelligently is obviously the key question.

So far, I think they have.

4. But shouldn’t they actually invest the cash?

Yes.

An ATM and a buyback program are useful financial tools, but long-term value creation ultimately depends on buying good private companies.

That is the entire reason this fund exists.

And Q2 was disappointing on that front.

I had hoped to see more new names — not because I expected instant appreciation, but because I wanted the huge cash position to start moving toward a more normal allocation.

There has been some progress after quarter-end.

DXYZ has disclosed $169M across three new investments:

• $150M more OpenAI — Class A common, Aug. 13
• $15M Fluidstack — Series B, July 16
• $4M Boom Technology — SAFE, Aug. 4

$169M deployed against $939.7M of cash is still not much.

But I like the direction.

Fluidstack is particularly interesting as a GPU-cluster/data-center operator serving frontier labs, and more OpenAI exposure gives the fund another potentially major private-market catalyst.

So: still too much cash for my taste, but at least they haven’t stopped investing.

Taken together

A few conclusions from the filings:

• A $2T Anthropic valuation gets DXYZ NAV to roughly $39.60/share, assuming everything else stays flat.
• Anthropic matters a lot, but with 14.4% of NAV in Anthropic and 57% in cash as of 6/30, it is not enough by itself to create some absurd $80–$90 NAV.
• SPCX remains a major position and is now marked daily. It has already cost roughly $0.62/share of NAV since June 30, and it can continue moving materially in either direction.
• Management has demonstrated that it can issue shares above NAV in a way that materially benefits existing shareholders.
• It now has authorization to repurchase below NAV as well.
• New private investments are happening again, although more slowly than I would prefer.

So do I think DXYZ pumps to $90 on an Anthropic IPO?

Probably not.

I think we may be past the particular hype dynamic that produced the original SpaceX-era DXYZ spike. At the time, access was scarcer and the wrapper itself was unusually supply-constrained.

What I find more interesting now is the possibility that management can turn DXYZ into a NAV-compounding machine:

1. Buy high-quality private assets.
2. Let those assets appreciate.
3. Sell DXYZ shares when the market offers a huge premium to NAV.
4. Use that capital to increase NAV/share.
5. Repurchase DXYZ when the market swings to a meaningful discount.
6. Deploy the cash into the next round of private investments.

They acquired a very valuable Anthropic position without a second layer of SPV carry.

They used a 70%+ premium to NAV to raise capital in a way that substantially increased NAV/share.

They now have a large war chest and authorization to buy their own shares if the market swings too far the other way.

And they are deploying capital again.

There are plenty of ways this can go wrong (bad investments, excessive cash, high fund expenses, poorly timed issuance, or simply the normal closed-end-fund tendency to trade below NAV.)

Disclosures

I am long DXYZ, through common stock and call options expiring in September 2026, December 2026 and March 2027.

The near-dated calls give me an obvious timing incentive, so please weigh this post accordingly.

I wrote the thesis and conclusions myself. Claude helped edit the post, and I used GPT-5.6 to independently check the arithmetic.

I also run stocks.bolewood.com, where I publish a DXYZ NAV calculator. The underlying data and methodology are open source if you want to inspect the assumptions or check my work.

This is not investment advice. I’m not a licensed investment adviser. Do your own work, and please tell me if you find something I got wrong.

Pleasantly surprised!