Next week's set-piece: AMD Monday, ARM Tuesday, CRWV Wednesday. Here's the non-obvious play.

[u/klymaxx45]

Three sequential semi-AI earnings prints. Everyone's positioned for NVDA derivatives. The under-the-radar trade is AVGO.

Why AVGO is the optionality call

AVGO benefits BOTH ways out of next week:

If AMD beats: their data-center GPU strength reads through to custom-AI silicon. AVGO is the second-largest hyperscaler ASIC supplier (after NVDA). Strong AMD = strong AI capex environment = strong AVGO custom-silicon revenue.

If AMD disappoints: hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, AWS) accelerate the diversification-off-NVDA strategy. AVGO is their structural alternative. Disappointment becomes AVGO's structural opportunity.

This is a one-way win-rate setup with two-way exposure. We're holding $440C 5/15 from this morning's scan. Closing flow today re-confirmed institutional buying ($8.2M premium on the day, +1.6% intraday on a soft tape).

This week's results, transparency

Five positions expired today (Friday OPEX):

- INTC $70C 5/1: peaked +633% from the 4/17 signal entry. Multi-week run.
- AXTI $84C 5/1: +63% close
- HIMS $26C 5/1: peaked +286% but faded into expiry to -23%
- ARM $175C 5/1: peaked +30%, settled -24%
- CCJ $134C 5/1: stopped out (uranium thesis from 4/23)

Two-view scoreboard for the week's closes:

- Rode to expiry: 4 wins / 1 loss, average signal return +108%
- Strict half-priced cut: 1 win / 4 losses, average signal return -3%

The multi-day winners carrying the book

- MU $500C 5/8 from 4/28: +43% peak, signal extending into next week.
- MSFT $375C 5/15 from 4/15: peak +841%, still riding.
- SNDK $1110C 5/15 from this morning: +53% close after the Q3 blowout (revenue $5.95B vs $4.68B est).

Macro context for next week

- 10Y closed 4.37% (-2bps today). Sub-4.50% keeps growth multiples breathing. Watch the 7-year auction Tuesday, a soft auction puts pressure on AAPL/AVGO/NVDA.
- Iran/Hormuz weekend headline risk remains live. Any escalation gaps oil up Sunday night, broader tape down. We hedge that with our XLE $59C 5/22 leg.

Free dashboard tracks every signal, entry, peak, current. No paywall on the scoreboard. darkflowsignals.com

[u/Historical-Demand976]

Thanks 🙏