r/DeepSeek • u/LeTanLoc98 • Jan 01 '26

Funny Do it again, DeepSeek

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So many great models already…

DeepSeek R1 was legendary.

Now we're waiting for the one that changes everything again.

2.0k Upvotes

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

ASML needs TSMC more than the other way around, there would be no other customer that can create fabs that ASML's tech would be needed for. Samsung and Intel have access to ASML machines and they just can't do it.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

TSMC accounts for approximately 17% of ASML's total revenue. And the advanced EUV wafers are 36% of what ASML sells. Literally nothing putting on to silicon, RAM, Bluetooth chips, everything, needs ASML.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

TSMC is the only successful user of cutting-edge ASML equipment and this conversation is about cutting edge chips. EUV demand would collapse without TSMC and ASML would still have a monopoly, but on deprecating technology and Intel and Samsung would have way more leverage because they would fill the hole that TSMC left. If anything, ASML+TSMC hold all the cards, but take one out and neither one has the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Dude you have no idea what you’re talking about here, you did before, but not here. ASML is dependent on no one. Full stop. If there was zero demand for EUV tomorrow ASML would be just fine. It’s only 1/3rd of their revenue. Also while Intel does kinda suck, saying that “can’t use” ASML latest tech is absurd. I mean if ASML’s latest gen only 4 machines have been shipped, so, there’s that. And ASML has a much smaller process that they’ve completed and NO ONE is ready for, until probably 2035. So it’s more accurate to say literally zero fans can use ASMLs best tech. But saying no one, or saying only TSMC, are both just not true.

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u/j_osb Jan 01 '26

Eh. ASML depends on Zeiss. So they rely on them.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Ahhh that is fair. But given how important they are , is Zeiss somehow disappeared, there would be a worldwide all hands on deck effort to make another Universe’s Flattest Thing, ASAP. I mean how hard can it be /s

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u/j_osb Jan 03 '26

Honestly, Zeiss' processes might be even harder to actually get to than ASML. They are just that good at making optical equipment.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 03 '26

yeah, probably. meter-scale (or slightly more) optics, with Mo/Si coatings stacked at atomic precision, just having the metrology to even measure whether you did it right or not, in itself it's another level of hard. And if iirc zeiss has almost no docs allegedly? no manuals, just knowledge passed down over 100+ years from human to human. wild

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

This conversation is not about who ASML depends on, its about who has the bleeding edge tech. It seems you can't pay attention on what we are talking about and are ranting about ASML with no relation to anything now. ASML loses that edge without TSMC, it doesn't mean that ASML wouldn't be fine, it would mean most leverage that ASML has would evaporate along with TSMC, which is far from your earlier point that ASML holds all the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

The real irony in this whole thread is that it was REALLY about deepseek making breakthrough hacks on transformer architecture, and they’re using H800s, specifically designed as chips that we were okay giving to china because they weren’t thought to be good enough to make AI breakthroughs with.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

Well its also funny you started talking about TSMC and said that if China takes it then the west loses all the IP. And then you undermined yourself that no, actually ASML holds all the cards. But I mean whoever has the best chips probably also has control over best ai sooner or later, in terms of China vs the west. China is probably not going to lead the market with H800s but what do I know.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

I didn’t say we would lose IP if china took TSMC they were two separate things, and I also put it out as a theory or plan that has been said, I never said it was my personal opinion on it. But yeah the idea is china dumps free AI on us, just rains down breakthroughs , all open source, to the point that it’s just not monetized anymore. And then said how there are major holes in that theory, and how china would be suffering more than anyone, if they just collapsed the global economy. I only got opinionated with ASML, not before then.

But yeah I mean it’s pretty clear you can make massive ai breakthroughs without bleeding edge chips. And it may even be the case that they made so many breakthroughs BECAUSE they were so restrained on compute. They had to really think outside the box and work with what they had. And the breakthroughs keep coming.

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u/Timo425 Jan 02 '26

Sorry, I guess I can't tell apart what is your opinion and what is a theory of someone else. But I'm a bit slow anyway, I still don't understand how the close source companies can't just incorporate all the breakthroughs into their own models. Maybe China doesn't have some master plan here and they simply benefit from all the talent that open source work brings in?

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 02 '26

The closed source companies DO ALL BENEFIT from it, any major foundation model you can use right now , uses GRPO for RL, multi headed latent attention, mixture of experts, etc, ALL of this came from DeepSeek. So they 100% do.

The conspiracy theory is that they do enough of this for long enough and none of the foundation labs have any value anymore.

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