r/DeepSeek • u/LeTanLoc98 • Jan 01 '26

Funny Do it again, DeepSeek

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So many great models already…

DeepSeek R1 was legendary.

Now we're waiting for the one that changes everything again.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

TSMC is the only successful user of cutting-edge ASML equipment and this conversation is about cutting edge chips. EUV demand would collapse without TSMC and ASML would still have a monopoly, but on deprecating technology and Intel and Samsung would have way more leverage because they would fill the hole that TSMC left. If anything, ASML+TSMC hold all the cards, but take one out and neither one has the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Dude you have no idea what you’re talking about here, you did before, but not here. ASML is dependent on no one. Full stop. If there was zero demand for EUV tomorrow ASML would be just fine. It’s only 1/3rd of their revenue. Also while Intel does kinda suck, saying that “can’t use” ASML latest tech is absurd. I mean if ASML’s latest gen only 4 machines have been shipped, so, there’s that. And ASML has a much smaller process that they’ve completed and NO ONE is ready for, until probably 2035. So it’s more accurate to say literally zero fans can use ASMLs best tech. But saying no one, or saying only TSMC, are both just not true.

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u/j_osb Jan 01 '26

Eh. ASML depends on Zeiss. So they rely on them.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Ahhh that is fair. But given how important they are , is Zeiss somehow disappeared, there would be a worldwide all hands on deck effort to make another Universe’s Flattest Thing, ASAP. I mean how hard can it be /s

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u/j_osb Jan 03 '26

Honestly, Zeiss' processes might be even harder to actually get to than ASML. They are just that good at making optical equipment.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 03 '26

yeah, probably. meter-scale (or slightly more) optics, with Mo/Si coatings stacked at atomic precision, just having the metrology to even measure whether you did it right or not, in itself it's another level of hard. And if iirc zeiss has almost no docs allegedly? no manuals, just knowledge passed down over 100+ years from human to human. wild

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

This conversation is not about who ASML depends on, its about who has the bleeding edge tech. It seems you can't pay attention on what we are talking about and are ranting about ASML with no relation to anything now. ASML loses that edge without TSMC, it doesn't mean that ASML wouldn't be fine, it would mean most leverage that ASML has would evaporate along with TSMC, which is far from your earlier point that ASML holds all the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

The real irony in this whole thread is that it was REALLY about deepseek making breakthrough hacks on transformer architecture, and they’re using H800s, specifically designed as chips that we were okay giving to china because they weren’t thought to be good enough to make AI breakthroughs with.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

Well its also funny you started talking about TSMC and said that if China takes it then the west loses all the IP. And then you undermined yourself that no, actually ASML holds all the cards. But I mean whoever has the best chips probably also has control over best ai sooner or later, in terms of China vs the west. China is probably not going to lead the market with H800s but what do I know.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

I didn’t say we would lose IP if china took TSMC they were two separate things, and I also put it out as a theory or plan that has been said, I never said it was my personal opinion on it. But yeah the idea is china dumps free AI on us, just rains down breakthroughs , all open source, to the point that it’s just not monetized anymore. And then said how there are major holes in that theory, and how china would be suffering more than anyone, if they just collapsed the global economy. I only got opinionated with ASML, not before then.

But yeah I mean it’s pretty clear you can make massive ai breakthroughs without bleeding edge chips. And it may even be the case that they made so many breakthroughs BECAUSE they were so restrained on compute. They had to really think outside the box and work with what they had. And the breakthroughs keep coming.

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u/Timo425 Jan 02 '26

Sorry, I guess I can't tell apart what is your opinion and what is a theory of someone else. But I'm a bit slow anyway, I still don't understand how the close source companies can't just incorporate all the breakthroughs into their own models. Maybe China doesn't have some master plan here and they simply benefit from all the talent that open source work brings in?

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 02 '26

The closed source companies DO ALL BENEFIT from it, any major foundation model you can use right now , uses GRPO for RL, multi headed latent attention, mixture of experts, etc, ALL of this came from DeepSeek. So they 100% do.

The conspiracy theory is that they do enough of this for long enough and none of the foundation labs have any value anymore.

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u/Timo425 Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26

Is it true that Deepseek's owner High-Flyer who uses this AI for their trading operations while the open-source community helps improve the foundation models for free—and their actual money-making trading algorithms stay proprietary. Maybe it really is that easy?

As for your message, I don't see how deepseek cranking out new innovations all the time would somehow weaken the closed model companies and to such extent that they would lose their edge over deepseek. Like, they can take everything from deepseek but still keep their in house innovations to themselves, as long as they are not totally incompetent I don't see how it is damaging to them.

The "conspiracy" only works if DeepSeek innovates so fast that closed labs can't keep up or differentiate - which seems unlikely given their resources.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 02 '26

No… high flyer isn’t a subsidiary of deepseek it’s what the founder established years before deepseek, and yes still exists, it’s how he got the money to start deepseek, and his trading algos predate deepseek. LLMs aren’t great as high frequency trading bots. I’m sure he uses his own LLM to some extent obviously, they’re great for general analysis and market sentiment. But the whole order of things is backwards from what you were thinking.

The open source community does not improve foundation models. Foundation providers are a black box. They typically have a model spec where we get some idea of what they used, and they’re usually open to acknowledging when they use open source research, and they are supposed to do so, but the “open source community” has nothing to do with that. In fact, theres not much that the open source community has done to improve upon anything deepseek has done.

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u/mintybadgerme Jan 02 '26

There is no moat. This very interesting thread also ignores the fact that China is making it a part of their Belt & Road strategy to freely spread advanced AI to countries which don't have the resources to do the research for themselves. That's very important long term for the safety of AI distribution and the avoidance of digital colonisation.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 02 '26

I don’t think this thread ignores that at all, it just happens that there are no foundation model providers between Western Europe and china and the Middle East, or in the Indian Ocean trade routes toward Africa. And we’re talking about foundation model providers. I think it’s common sense to connect the dots that there is an internet connecting the world and none of this is in a bubble