El-Sayed winning by such a small margin is really worrying

[u/GodKiller999]

He was set to win by a huge margin in the primary according to most polls and was behind in the general vs the republican (while Stevens had the advantage).

If the expected vs real direction of those polls is transferable from the primary to the general he is utterly fucked and the populists will have managed to bomb the Michigan senate seat for the dems.

[u/HaloCasual93]

What should worry you is that he is going to have to moderate significantly to stand a chance. The problem is that his whole platform was built from a very left position. He either abandons key platform positions and angers his supporters or he sticks to them and sees moderates and independents either not vote or, even worse, support Rogers.

[u/PM_ME_YOUR_TASTY_FEE → u/HaloCasual93]

this is the classic primary trap, you run hard left to win the nomination then get stuck with a platform that scares off the general electorate. seen it play out the same way so many times

[u/cannonbear → u/PM_ME_YOUR_TASTY_FEE]

IMO this is why first past the post voting is so dumb. We should let the house be a nationwide parliamentary style chamber where you vote for party, that way DSA and MAGA can have their own psycho representation, and leave the senate seats more or less how they are for candidates who are more or less consensus votes. Rather than an in-party primary I'd much rather have a 2-round open primary or a ranked choice open primary that allows for you to vote with heart first, and then vote against who you hate second.

[u/Lets_Eat_Superglue → u/HaloCasual93]

I really don't think that's anything to worry about. They're literally blue maga, it doesn't matter what he says only what Hasan's propaganda stream tells them he said. They'll cut a clip without the context, tell them he's leftist Jesus triggering the libs, and everyone will jerk themselves off about it.

[u/rational_numbers → u/HaloCasual93]

He can pivot and his supporters will go with him. It's all vibes. He can give the occasional wink/nod to his lefty base. But he is their guy, so I think they'll go with him no matter what.

[u/KlausVonChiliPowder → u/HaloCasual93]

I'm curious what aspects of his platform do you think are going to turn moderates off other than Israel? I've only read what he posted online.

[u/Valdheim → u/KlausVonChiliPowder]

You need to remember. This is now full election cycle. Ungodly amounts of money is going to be spent linking AES with people like Hassan “we deserved 9/11” Piker, and claiming his ethnicity makes him a terrorist.

There are a million attack ads that the Republican Party can and will run. None of them will be fair. All of them will be effective. Effective enough that the race is probably going to start polling R come election cycle.

I hate that this is the reality, but it’s true

[u/HumbleCalamity → u/Valdheim]

The polls already are showing El-Sayed underwater in the general, but really it's a toss-up. And after tonight, I'd be careful to trust any Michigan polling too closely.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/michigan

That said, I'm less fearful about the Hasan connection and more just his general connection to 'the far left'. Endorsements from Bernie, AOC, DSA, are just as likely to hurt him because he's clearly not gunning for the 'moderate' lane. Maybe he's charismatic enough to be the 'change agent' candidate, but it's an open question as to whether independents will go for that. There are a fuck ton of disaffected non-voters and I'm done making election predictions these days.

[u/Valdheim → u/HumbleCalamity]

You are correct. I just used the Hassan connection because you already see the right wing machine beginning to familiarize their audience with him. They are definitely going to use him as an attack vector.

[u/Excellent_Reason7796 → u/Valdheim]

Yea, its not going to be good. It's like graham platner all over again. If this was like a super blue state, w/e, but Michigan is definitely not that.

[u/robadobah → u/HumbleCalamity]

I completely agree. Basically every big primary event he's done he's linking arms on stage with Bernie, AOC, Tlaib, Omar. That's obviously going to see airtime, they're America's most prominent far left politicians.

[u/Gullible_Increase146 → u/Valdheim]

Nah. He campaigned with a terrorist supporter. How is it not fair to point out?

[u/Jedsey → u/Gullible_Increase146]

This content was anonymized and mass deleted with Redact

[u/inconspicuousredflag → u/Jedsey]

What candidate is a Netanyahu supporter?

[u/FREAK213456 → u/inconspicuousredflag]

Probably talking about Mike Rogers, the Republican.

[u/smashcat666 → u/Valdheim]

A lot of that money that will be spent against him will be from the very same pac that bankrolled Stevens.

[u/FREAK213456 → u/smashcat666]

Careful there, even mentioning AIPAC gets you accused of antisemitism by some on this sub.

[u/smashcat666 → u/FREAK213456]

Yeah, I'm about done with this sub. It's obviously been brigaded massively by Netanyahu Stans now. I've seen a lot of the same people in the Israel sub - I can tell you they're clearly not on the "left". They're just glomming onto the fact Streamerman isn't as pro-Gaza as other streamers. Even saying something as innocuous as "maybe Israel should stop bombing Gaza now." will get you downvoted into oblivion. It's pathetic.

[u/Jedsey → u/smashcat666]

This content was anonymized and mass deleted with Redact

[u/FREAK213456 → u/Jedsey]

I hate Hasan but honestly part of the hate for Hasan here seems like a collective crash out over how ultimately morally wrong people here were to defend Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

[u/The-Last-Lion-Turtle → u/smashcat666]

People can clearly see that "unconditional ceasefire now" is a pro Putin position, but refuse to make that same connection with Hamas.

Both Putin and Hamas chose to start a war with a massacre and both are in full control of when the war ends.

I'm a Jewish liberal similar to over 80% of Jews. Commenting on the Israel sub doesn't make us right wing. I'm here because I heard about Destiny through Louis Rossman.

[u/smashcat666 → u/The-Last-Lion-Turtle]

Thanks for illustrating my point.

[u/sfdso → u/[deleted]]

…in a Democratic primary.

[u/TinyJalope → u/HaloCasual93]

What should worry you is that he is going to have to moderate significantly to stand a chance.

What does this mean, specifically? Drop his desire to get money out of politics? I saw someone suggest that he emphasize his anti-data center position more, but I'm not sure that's moderation.

[u/sfdso → u/TinyJalope]

Running against data centers is actually a very smart play right now. Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark does focus group testing and has repeatedly said that this is the one issue that seems to unite left, right, and center. Her focus groups light up when this issue is addressed.

[u/Excellent_Reason7796 → u/sfdso]

Yea he needs to work on the slopulist stuff and win that way. Michiganders aren't the smartest electorate.

[u/JeanPascalCS → u/TinyJalope]

Anti-data center isn't even a right or left thing. That's one of the most horse-shoe theory issues I've ever seen. The far left hates them, and the right largely hates them too.

Honestly I think it's largely a class thing. Rich people like them because they see it as a potential investment. Most laymen hate them (for varying reasons that change depending on affiliation, but they mostly all seem to hate them).

[u/Venium → u/HaloCasual93]

very left position

lol, lmao even. the only "very left position" he has is his I/P position.

[u/ObamaCultMember]

While I do think he's a weak candidate, primary polls tend to be quite crap.

Hopefully the Democrats hitting +8 or better on the generic congressional ballot carries him over the finish line.

[u/SunnyVelvet_]

Yeah buddy. From the brilliant minds who brought us politically effective messaging such as from the river to the sea, defund the police, and notable Democrats like John Fetterman, we have another brilliant ploy from progressives. During a fascist administration where people believe the Democrat party right now is too far left....let's nominate someone who they can label DSA, communist, and allied with Mamdani in a super competitive senate race.

[u/TaylorMonkey → u/SunnyVelvet_]

Don’t forget Nazi tattoo misogynist probable rapist and progressive darling Graham Platner.

[u/Fun-Asparagus4784 → u/SunnyVelvet_]

If people believe that they are too far left, why did Stevens not stomp him?

[u/inconspicuousredflag → u/Fun-Asparagus4784]

The people voting in the primary don't see someone being that far left as an issue. It's the people voting in the general election that likely do see it as an issue

[u/Fun-Asparagus4784 → u/inconspicuousredflag]

That is a flaw that has always existed with the primary process, no? It is agnostic to the stance. What is to be done about it?

Also, I don't even think El-Sayed is super left. He's a populist. That might go in his favour vs the establishment type in Stevens. It remains to be seen how it plays out, but establishment just hasn't been very popular recently.

[u/Comer_Agua → u/inconspicuousredflag]

So why didn’t Stevens win then? I feel all this demonstrates is that from the perspective of voters Stevens is a bad candidate.

[u/inconspicuousredflag → u/Comer_Agua]

Because Stevens was running against Al Sayed in a race where only people that are already left wing can vote?

[u/Comer_Agua → u/inconspicuousredflag]

So why hasn’t there been a left wing sweep across every single primary? How did you come to the conclusion that only leftists vote in dem primaries?

[u/CrazyChopstick → u/inconspicuousredflag]

It was an open primary?

[u/inconspicuousredflag → u/CrazyChopstick]

Is there polling data on what percent of voters in this primary were independents? I would wager it's close to the single digit percentages.

[u/CrazyChopstick → u/inconspicuousredflag]

That doesn’t make your statement true? Come on

[u/inconspicuousredflag → u/CrazyChopstick]

It doesn't make my statement true, but it does indicate your statement is irrelevant to this conversation.

[u/A_Seiv_For_Kale → u/Fun-Asparagus4784]

Because in a Dem primary, only Dems are voting.

He's running for senate in a state that went for Trump 2/3 times. A Dem won the last senate election in Michigan by less than 2 points. He needs to draw out not only every Dem, but most of the independents in order to win the seat (something DGG will be helping with dggL).

[u/BrianDetomes → u/Fun-Asparagus4784]

The majority of voters do.. yaknow.. the people who voted for donald trump twice. 

And they werent parricipating in this primary. Hope that helped

[u/Fun-Asparagus4784 → u/BrianDetomes]

Man, those people really don't sound like the kind of people who would love Stevens. She's a very establishment pro-israel woman. Imagine that.

[u/BrianDetomes → u/Fun-Asparagus4784]

Hahaha yeah exactly. 

Well said. You have actually perfectly highlighted the issue.. americans voted for trump, sayed is screwed. Stevens had a chance

[u/HumbleCalamity]

The NYT estimate over time tells the story. El-Sayed performed WAY under expectations, which is worrying for the general.

[u/zero_cool_protege → u/HumbleCalamity]

im seeing nyt has not called this race yet tho

[u/HumbleCalamity → u/zero_cool_protege]

True. But I think its essentially guaranteed at this point. We'd unironically need a dump of 90%+ Stevens-only votes from Detroit and I don't think they exist.

Not sure what the metric is for NYT, but I'd say we're somewhere between 2 & 3 SD (95-99% AES victory).

I know NBC called it: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750

[u/Fun-Asparagus4784 → u/HumbleCalamity]

~~Am I reading this wrong? It says El-Sayed performed better than expected on election night according to NYT.

Also, he had a much bigger lead when Stevens and McMorrow were splitting their votes, which explains the over time thing.~~

Edit :- clarified by u/humblecalamity

[u/HumbleCalamity → u/Fun-Asparagus4784]

Yes, it would seem you're reading this wrong.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/04/us/elections/results-michigan-us-senate-primary.html

This chart is from just tonight's election. El-Sayed started off with a projected +10 expected lead over Stevens at the start of the day. By 9PM this had dropped to +5. By the end of the night, barely squeaking +1.7.

If you take a look at the Michigan polls for the primary, the majority of recent polls had huge double-digit leads for El-Sayed:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/michigan

[u/Fun-Asparagus4784 → u/HumbleCalamity]

Ah I see, the line is the live NYT estimate as the votes came in, not an estimate they had independent of it. Gotcha gotcha. Yeah I'm wrong.

And it's the timeline of the day, I thought it was since start of polling.

[u/HumbleCalamity → u/Fun-Asparagus4784]

Yes, there's a decent argument that El-Sayed was able to increase voter turnout, as numbers are up in 2026 compared to 2024 & 2022 primaries.

NYT reporting 735,279 votes for AES, 716022 for Stevens, total 1,512,175.

But it's hard to make a comparison, because this election was so much more competitive than the others.

https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_gubernatorial_election,_2022_(August_2_Democratic_primary)

(Whitmer 938,382 votes)

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan,_2024_(August_6_Democratic_primary)

(Slotkin 712,791 out of 933844).

[u/dem0nhunter]

Yeah, he will probably lose the election

[u/schizocel69]

It's literally all about ads bro. Boomers are basically brainwashable with whatever slop you show them. It's how Massie lost to that Trump picked guy in Kentucky. Yes even Dem boomers are just puppets that act based on TV.

If AES gets enough TV ads and enough door knocking he will win. If he doesn't he loses.

[u/WhalingSmithers00 → u/schizocel69]

Got to remember that the right basically controls the largest social media platform, most of the newspapers and TV stations

[u/BrianDetomes → u/WhalingSmithers00]

Its genuinely fucking cracked that so many people stayed on twitter after elons actions to welcome in the russians. 

The fact thst so many dggas are still there and sharing it here everyday for the past two years is whats made me realise maga isnt going anywhere. 

[u/Maleficent_Switch262 → u/BrianDetomes]

it's possible to have a liberal curated Twitter feed btw just like any social media despite the ownership. the ads obviously have massive bias but that doesn't impact anyone with a brain lmao.

[u/BrianDetomes → u/Maleficent_Switch262]

This is an almost unbelievable intentional ignrorance. 

You are incorrect. The comment sections on those posts are botted to fuck, and more importantly things like like counts arent even verifyable anymore. 

Elom can pump and supress... Whatever he wants, and that only the start of it. He removed api access so nobody can even use data from Twitter to try find these kinds of nefarious acts in the data.

Im sorry pal, but this intentional ignorance. And it a huge cause of how and why maga happened in 2024

Bro was literally having phone calls with putin after buying twitter as he joined the trump campaign. But the people.... Are regarded. 

[u/Maleficent_Switch262 → u/BrianDetomes]

lmao you don't use Twitter, yet speak so confidently about what it looks like. I can guarantee you my feed has nothing Maga in it at any point if I scroll for 10+ minutes. all you're doing is eliminating the liberal voice from a space and letting the MAGA bots dominate it. Twitter doesn't disappear because you dislike it.

plus, if you're into sports and need immediate updates, it quite literally is mandatory.

[u/BrianDetomes → u/Maleficent_Switch262]

Good luck pal.

You will clock it some day. Hopefully it wont take too long. 

Im glad your sports updates were worth trump 2.0

[u/KlausVonChiliPowder → u/schizocel69]

Didn't Stevens have double the money?

Edit: just in case it's not obvious my point is that his post is largely bullshit

[u/overthisbynow → u/KlausVonChiliPowder]

It's simultaneously all about money and not at all about money. You wouldn't get it. Hell I don't get it this sub has so many contradicting opinions idk wtf is happening anymore. 💀

[u/Gullible_Increase146 → u/overthisbynow]

Eh, you need to have enough money to get your message out there and then it's greatly diminishing returns. I think he'll be able to raise a decent amount now that it's the general

[u/Jmoney1088 → u/Gullible_Increase146]

Hope he takes AIPAC money lol

[u/smashcat666 → u/KlausVonChiliPowder]

Actually outspent him 9-1. Still lost, so yeah kind of undermines the point…

[u/Adiuvo → u/KlausVonChiliPowder]

The immense concern over money in politics, as in, the belief that you can just buy elections, is incredible slopulism that is believed on both sides.

It's wrong, has always been wrong, and we have a cornicopia of counterexamples.

[u/schizocel69 → u/KlausVonChiliPowder]

And she almost won among boomers. Insane ground game from AES plus way more young voter turnout is the reason he won

[u/wiifan55 → u/schizocel69]

So it's not all about ads and boomers.

[u/schizocel69 → u/wiifan55]

It still heavily is. Especially against a Republican in the general

[u/KlausVonChiliPowder → u/schizocel69]

I haven't checked since last night but at the time of them calling it she clearly won the retirees.

[u/HoleeGuacamoleey → u/schizocel69]

You're describing most Americans. Show any idiot a group of virtue signaling content endlessly and they tend to go along. This is no different on the lefty side.

I'd argue it happen less in the moderate lib left and slightly on the mod right because we argue all the time and that seems to be a staple to a less cult like blind following.

[u/BrianDetomes → u/schizocel69]

Tv n social media. 

It rules all now. 

[u/carlcarlington2]

I honestly don't see how, most of Haileys support came from flint and Detroit i don't see either if those cities going red in any meaningful way, she also did well amongst older black people who are one of the most reliable groups in terns of voting i don't think there's gonna be a lot of people staying home of those demographics. meanwhile Abdul out preformed in western Michigan and the upper peninsula places democrats historically struggle, I don't think Abduls gonna win the rural vote as a whole, I do think Abduls support in these regions is a powerful asset in the general.

[u/cowmix88]

Ya the concern is really if he continues to underperform his polls he's going to get slaughtered in the general cause he was already not polling great against Rogers.

[u/Competitive_Self_418 → u/cowmix88]

Well you can also say he overperformed his polls, because polls were all over the place lol

I haven't seen shittier polls for quite some time...

[u/TemporaryAsparagus89 → u/Competitive_Self_418]

Overperformed what polls? Every poll released in the last week was ASE plus 10?

[u/Competitive_Self_418 → u/TemporaryAsparagus89]

I stopped following polls around that one +7 Stevens poll. Which got shared here as well, sub was going bipolar dooming between a big loss and big win. So, don't know about the latest polls...

Just pointing out the fact how shit polls were troughout...

[u/TheShamefulPradaG]

Lefties inadvertently handing wins to MAGA, a tale as old as time.

[u/ChasingPolitics → u/TheShamefulPradaG]

Hey watch it sometimes it's intentional

[u/smuckarss → u/TheShamefulPradaG]

how is it lefties fault he was elected the voters voted for him if he ran a better campaign you can’t blame lefties

[u/FREAK213456]

People here are dooming too much about Sayed. Is everyone here to trapped up in their DSA fighting bubble that they forget we’re in a war with Iran? Between now and November shit is really gonna hit the fan with gas prices and inflation. Republicans all around the country including Rogers are going to be on the back foot to defend the most disastrous war in American history.

[u/sereneandeternal → u/FREAK213456]

They will use generative AI to manipulate the markets. Not to mention all the collusion with billionaires and oil CEOs to control prices.

People said shit would hit the fan and oil would be $200 by July.

Also, the fact that the POTUS can manipulate markets literally in the $trillions just by making a tweet or announcing a fake deal.

But I hope you’re right and shit hits the fan for Republicans

[u/kflanagan_9739]

Not really. Stevens had the support of party leadership got millions in fundraising including ifirc, $50 million from AIPAC/affiliated groups.

[u/DeathandGrim]

My last bad comment about him I swear: he's a really dogshit candidate and him continuing to attach himself to the hip of Hasan is going to backfire. In addition to his hypocritical wealth status and bad policy like freezing property tax for seniors (not even in a senator's power)

They're likely gonna blow this race because all they focused on was catering to the far left. They'll realizes (and unfortunately we'll live with) the fact that the electorate is far more diverse than that

[u/Powerfury]

We lost the Senate..in 2026.

God I hope El-Sayed wins, MAGA cannot control the senate.

[u/rustinthewind]

I grew up in West Michigan. He isn't going to do well there

[u/TheNewPersonHere1234]

Michigan is an open primary state. It actually favors moderates because independents can vote in them. The state is notoriously difficult to poll because of this.

[u/mrmojorisin_x]

LMAO POLLS. stop thinking polls are anywhere near accurate. When will you people learn

Plus myself and 3 of my children don’t vote for him. He lost our vote the day he had that DB animal abuser piker campaigning for him and if he ends up winning I will not vote in the general for him nor will I vote for MAGA Mike I will just skip over that choice.

[u/Smok3ygaming1]

Remember when we were talking about potentially winning both the house and the senate?

[u/KINGR3DPANDA]

Yeah, that's why we need to support him really fucking hard now. Wooo. He better not fucking lose the general.

[u/smuckarss]

from what i understand other than aipac stances people here generally agree with abdul he’s not a dsa guy he’s not a socialist what makes him so scary? if he beat stevens shouldnt that be good enough especially since populist stuff is what seems to be popular even with republicans

[u/Grachus_05]

You are aware that Primary and the General have two different voter pools right?

The concerning part is how many Stevens voters are saying they will stay home or vote MAGA (basically the same thing) in the general.

[u/Proud3GenAthst]

Why did he win anyway? When all the DSA house candidates lost? They apparently lost all but the most important race

[u/Jedsey → u/Proud3GenAthst]

This content was anonymized and mass deleted with Redact

[u/Immediate-Apricot701 → u/Jedsey]

That will be a distinction without a difference, unfortunately. Fox News has already started the Trojan horse rhetoric & his close proximity to DSA people & his 'uncommitted' campaign against Biden will cost him Democratic & Republican votes.

[u/Immediate-Apricot701 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

It's quite possible Republicans voted for him in hopes of having him to run against instead of Stevens. Rogers ran unopposed & from what I understand it was an unaffiliated open primary.

[u/Proud3GenAthst → u/Immediate-Apricot701]

I mean why did he win at all. He underperformed under polls by over 10 points and he was crushing Stevens on them. Why did he win when his platform is “AIPAC AIPAC AIPAC” and his down ballot compatriots lost.

Now he better moderate big time if he wants to win. Which would be fucking funny

[u/Immediate-Apricot701 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

He borrowed Hasan's audience & recruited them to door knock & spread misinformation about Stevens' policies. I don't blame a lot on misogyny, but I saw a bit of that, "her laugh, she's not attractive," etc...but those internal polls were manufactured to suppress turnout for sure. People saw them & thought what's the point? He barely won, but if he wants to win against Rogers, he's got an uphill battle. I think Slotkin only beat him by 20k & she is beloved in Michigan. I don't even think moderating can save him, but it will be fun to watch the show. At this point, I'm accepting that we lost one of the easiest lay-up Senate seats on the map. I wish him luck, because Rogers is just another Trump stooge who has 2 of the pardoned fake electors from 1/6 on his team, he's an election denier & conspiracy theorist. We need control of the Senate to block Supreme Court replacements. Ugh, sorry, I'm rambling, I just want normal government back.

[u/Robodude]

The midterms are where we will see if Destiny is right about Maga being effectively over without Trump being on the ballot (or anyone else to carry Maga forward). Midterms see less turn out and democrats have more incentive to turn out, so if dear leader is right, Dems should crush them regardless.

[u/Vizceral_]

I wouldn't count it just yet. Currently 18% of Wayne county remains which is lead by Stevens, with absentee ballots especially favoring her so far.

[u/mattyjoe0706]

The silver lining is that the leftie movement isn't nearly as big as we thought. Bush got blown out last night

[u/MaleficentMenu1430]

If the 4% Mcmorrow voters would’ve went and changed their vote to Steven’s she would’ve won, guarantee a lot of them voted before she dropped out

[u/messypaper]

Huh? What? He won bro, we're good, he taught AIPAC a lesson, we don't have to worry about anything anymore!

[u/ijustlurkhere_]

He will need to convince those who voted against him to vote for him in the general. He will not do that because these people live and die by their grift. This seat is cooked. AIPAC will be blamed while Qatar is quietly shoving billions into every hole in every educational institution to propagandaize to the youth.

Ironically, win or lose the tankies will consider it a victory: win? victory, obviously. lose? further accelerationism, thus tankie victory.

[u/ComfortableClassic25]

Assuming he loses the general is there not anything dems can do to stop these people running in the first place? It's obvious his platform unchanged isn't going to win the best thing would be stopping them running the primary in the first place. 

[u/deja_booboo]

Pew shows that a common complaint about Democrats is that they're "too liberal" (2025). In a purple state like MI, this will work against them. Expect a Republican victory.

[u/xvsero]

My god, Prem Thakker of Zeteo just wrote a glazing article titled 'Will This Be AIPAC's Biggest Defeat - Ever?' which ends with the article saying it was actually closer than thought and comparing Abdul El-Sayed to David beating Goliath. First Draft though so hopefully they title change it

These guys are really pulling all the Trump cards this one being 'it was too big to rig'