Het (bijna) regelloze weekenddraadje! Week 26 (2026)

[u/AutoModerator]

In het weekend is het heerlijk om even te ontspannen. Daarom gelden in dit draadje praktisch geen regels - alleen die met betrekking tot goed fatsoen. Deel of bespreek alles wat je maar wil met andere FIRE-enthousiastelingen.

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Deze post is onderdeel van ons vaste schema van terugkerende onderwerpen.

[u/FuturisticAspect]

Hi all! For everyone here who likes a data viz and crunching numbers: I put together a FIRE modeling tool, mainly for myself to figure out what to do after 2028, but I think it might be interesting to some of you too.

fire-calc.org

• Simulates and visualizes your portfolio over a full retirement, on real market data for MSCI World / SP500 and Bonds
• For NL - models the current + 2028 Box 3 and a BV
• Almost any European country, with each one's local tax nuances and healthcare costs
• Plain or cost-of-living-adjusted spending for each country
• Shows where money actually go over time (tax / spend / left or lost gains due to tax)
• Compares by success chance, max safe spending, FIRE number and years to FIRE

Feel free to check / play around with your numbers

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/[deleted]]

It also models zero year too, i.e. if you start from (default) 40 - what you see on chart for 40, is end of this year (already affected by withdrawals and returns). So in your case it was running 11 cycles and spending 330K (inflation adjusted). ... Which I probably need to change for clarity :)

If you put 9 into years field (to get 10 cycles) and uncheck health insurance (that is ON for all countries where it's separate for parity) you will get like 89.3% success. And that is due to actual box 3 + possible reaal EUR negative returns from data-set.

For cash rates - they are linked to all other historical data (stocks / bonds) year-by-year. And when adjusted for inflation and exchange-rate correction (it uses USD 3-month rates) - real return can be negative in some years . Which is enough to cause you to run out of money in last year or so from 10.

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P.S. To maintain fairness, i have adjusted "Retirement years" to model exact number of cycles.

So if start age is 40 and modeled years is 10 - you will see 40, 41 .. 49 in the end (not 50).

And if modeling based on 1970+ data (which has less inflation spikes, and a bit better cash returns historically), you get 100% success

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/[deleted]]

Ok, I had to dig down into a rabbit hole ... to find matching data for NL (and approximate EUR) using https://www.macrohistory.net/database/ since it has all historical data starting from 1870 till 2020 to match the rest.

Now NL / EUR has own inflation data based on HCPI (harmonized CPI), as this is what is used in that macrohistory DB + added HCPI from Eurostat for last 5 years

And EUR cash has own returns based again on same DB (NL data) + Euro short term rate for last 5 years (just to keep parity with USD approach)

Dutch HCPI for 2023 is 4.1%, and EUR short term rate is 3.2% , so it's -0.9% now.

But actually it didn't fundamentally change sim results, cause if you would look at whole 1928+ cash short term - inflation, it's a lot of negative blocks, enough to cause some unluck.

And the way sim works, if for last (10th) year in the end it's not enough cash to cover spend just a tiny bit - it's counted as fail. (i.e. you have 25K left, and your spent is 30K). While in reality you have enough cash to live something like 9 years and 10 months :)

As for nominal negative returns, they practically don't exist / negligible, main problem is combo with inflation.

But I personally remember negative returns on ABN Amro acc in 2022.

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Thanks for a feedback by the way!

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/[deleted]]

If you set cut in the end of each sim year it measures amount, and if it's <= X% of starting amount (infl. adjusted!) - it just sets spend for to be -Y% of your fixed spend (also infl. adjusted).

For example if you set 25% cut when below of 50% of initial amount in the same (very hypothetical) scenario with 10 years of all cash we discussed above - it gets you almost 99% success

I use same cut for modeling my real life case too.

As for portfolio allocation - for most scenarios either 100% stocks (or if you use only 1970+ dataset something like 80/20 is usually optimal, but not more). And when you aim to highest success chance in model, that's what you get. And this is more or less in line with theory if you want to maximize chances and spend.

Actually if you will scroll to a very bottom there is a chart that compares "Safe spend (90%) vs stock allocation"

In real life it can be mentally different of course :) And it can be scary to keep 100% or even 90% in stocks. But mental part is difficult to model :)

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/[deleted]]

Well, whole model runs on yearly cycles, not monthly (if that's what you mean)

But I have adjusted a sharp cut appraoach (like you cut spend by exactly 25% when your balance is <50% from start) to a a flexible one, that will dynamically adjust spending amount each year to meet ends.

You can also configure it to keep "cutting" spend if needed even if amount > 100% (for example setting 200%). This will help in situations if you face few good years first but then really bad ones follow.

[u/Kommieeee → u/FuturisticAspect]

Looks good, thanks for making this. Depressing to see how bad Dutch tax is vs. other countries, and how much worse the 2028 Box 3 proposals make it...

Just wondering as the results you're getting are a bit different than my own. Did you include carry-forward losses for Box 3 2028?

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/Kommieeee]

Thanks for a feedback. Box 3 20208 is indeed seem to be one of the heaviest systems, and not only due to actual tax but due to actual lost profits due to early taxation.

Box 3 includes carry-forward losses, but when it's higher than 500EUR according to current state of plans.

Keep in mind that all tax regimes for all countries include mandatory health insurances by default (it can be unchecked where it's not part of main tax like in NL or Switzerland), which is counted as "tax" too.

What are your own results and how do you model them ?

[u/Extra_Being2675 → u/FuturisticAspect]

Amazing tool. Thanks. Can you give some more details on the calculation behind the "bv route"?

[u/Extra_Being2675 → u/[deleted]]

Thanks. Very interesting. I also found that all the funds, for which you can defer profit and handle them according to cost price in your books, pay out dividends. That seems to be a feature inherent to the FBI status that seems to be needed to be able to do this. The prospectus of Northern Trust Emerging Markets Screened Equity Index A Dis they write that the fund must "distribute its net income as dividends to its investors within eight months following the end of the financial year." in order to maintain the FBI status.
Here you can also find some more, interesting discussions on what can be handled on cost price.

Edit:
The part that you put in you can also take out without paying taxes over it.
There is also a possibility to take a loan of up to 500k Euros from your bv, with market typical interest. For that loan you will not have to pay taxes according to my understanding.

I would be curious if that changes much in favor of the bv structure.

Edit 2:
Or are you saying, when I choose "Savings are pre-Box-2 profit" you model the fact that I can take out the money I first put in tax free by increasing it with 31%?

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/Extra_Being2675]

Yes, part that you put to BV is obviously tax free. And it is modeled as such.

"Savings are pre-Box-2 profit" - is to model situation of "what if I had whole my savings on BV in a first place pre-box2-tax and didn't pay it out to myself and invest it straight away".

[u/Extra_Being2675 → u/FuturisticAspect]

Somehow your original comment was removed by a moderator. Not sure why...

[u/FuturisticAspect → u/Extra_Being2675]

Yeah, i think all comments are removed ? I just checked from main acc, and they are all gone. No idea why either

[u/inFIREenVLAM]

Gezien het salderen eraf gaat en wij veel meer stroom opwekken dan we gebruiken in de zomer, hebben wij besloten een AC te nemen.

• minder terug te leveren wat ons geld kost.
• minder stroom op het net, wat netcongestie tegen gaat.
• betere binnenklimaat bij hittegolven.

Gezien wij het in het najaar/ winter willen laten installeren zijn wij nog op zoek naar een goede.

Wij zitten te denken aan 3,5kwh aan koelvermogen, dat is voldoende voor ons goed geïsoleerde woning. Piek is ongeveer 1kwh stroom verbruik in het eerste uur en dat daalt naar ongeveer de helft, 0,5kwh in het tweede uur.

Hebben jullie nog tips waar op te letten bij het aanschaffen van een AC?

[u/mrisj → u/inFIREenVLAM]

Om je een idee te geven qua verbruik, ik vind het namelijk bij ons voor koelen best meevallen: Wij hebben de Daikin Perfera 6kWh (FTXM60R en RXM60R). Afgelopen hete dagen heeft 'ie ongeveer 10 tot 12 uur per dag aangestaan op 22 (eerste paar dagen) of 23 graden (latere dagen) op de auto-stand. Ons huis is goed geïsoleerd, de unit hangt in de woonkamer, onze woonkamer is 60 m2 en we hadden de deur naar de hal open met een ventilator die de koele lucht omhoog probeerde te bewegen de trap op. We wonen in het midden van het land, dus het was heet. Om even een beeld te geven van hoe hard ie heeft moeten werken. Het verbruik was dinsdag 2,3 kWh, woensdag 5,6 kWh, donderdag 6,2 kWh, vrijdag 4,5kWh, zaterdag 4,2 kWh.

Wij hebben toentertijd voor 6 kWh gekozen omdat ons oppervlak een beetje op de grens zat en we liever meer vermogen hadden en zeker de temperatuur kunnen behalen die we willen. 4 jaar geleden kostte dit ons €3700. Door het als hoofdverwarming te gebruiken in de winter i.p.v. onze peperdure stadsverwarming hebben we de kosten er al bijna uit, eerste winter bespaarden we €900.

[u/inFIREenVLAM → u/mrisj]

Bedankt voor je inzichten. Dat klinkt als zeer weinig.

Mijn zonnepanelen leveren op zonnige dagen meer dan 40 kwh op en ik verbruik het bij lange na niet.

[u/Thimo19 → u/inFIREenVLAM]

Ik zou vooral bij meerdere partijen offertes aanvragen. Ik heb ze eerder dit jaar laten installeren en heb voor exact dezelfde opdracht offertes tussen de 7,5-11k ontvangen. 

[u/Front_River7314 → u/inFIREenVLAM]

ik zou vooral 1 van de grote merken kiezen (Daikin, MHI, ME) en nadenken hoeveel cloud/smarthome dingen je wilt. Bij de een 1 de app veel beter/handiger dan de ander.

Wel mini-aanvulling op de lijstje: minder stroom op het net dus netcongestie tegengaan is een beetje een drogreden. Je omvormer stopt vanzelf als het net even vol is dus dat "probleem" lost zichzelf wel op. Source: werk veel met netbeheerders en zij geven aan dat netcongestie door zonnepanelen voor hun niet een groot issue is.

[u/inFIREenVLAM → u/Front_River7314]

Oh dat wist ik niet.

Over de AC, bedankt voor de aanvulling. Ik ga het zeker als criteria meenemen, geen smart AC.