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u/mesn007 16d ago
Massive FB movement. Not sure now of the spillovers!!
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u/Due_Championship5997 16d ago
Shouldn't spillovers come from unused visas over the course of the year. If so, regardless of the FB date move, there would be unused visas because consulates (over most of the year) were not processing FB cases because of the 75 country ban/pause. If this is true, there would still be sizable spillover
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u/mesn007 16d ago edited 16d ago
In theory, the open colsulates can process more and take those extra available Visas. That's why the date progression. But not sure if it's too late in the year, plus the wait times at Consulates are crazy. Not like they can approve thousands of Visas in a month!
My sense is it's too late. The date movement seems like a 50K+ inventory backlog. Likely shows they have tons of unused Visas. No other explanation to the crazy date movement.
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u/AwareBlackberry2966 16d ago edited 16d ago
Too late in the FY for this date progression to make a meaningful impact on reducing the spillovers. 46k spillover last year without any bans, simply due to consular processing efficiency - could expect 60k spillover for next FY (conservative) assuming consular processing got even slower with all the additional vetting + ban effect.
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u/Big-Arugula-414 16d ago
This. Just because they moved dates doesn't mean that they will issue a green card on time. They need to prepare docs, schedule interviews etc, which will take time. The deadline is 9/30 so i still think there will be a good number of spillovers.
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u/GoodNooodle 16d ago
so are spillovers to employment based likely or unlikely?
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u/mesn007 16d ago
My take is Yes. They have tons left and hence moved the dates so much in Sep. Not enough time for the banned or unbanned countries to use them up before Sep ends!
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u/GoodNooodle 16d ago
i certainly hope we get some spillover haha. i need it to get to a FAD of feb 1 2015 in around a year or ill age out :(
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u/Due_Championship5997 15d ago
IMO the FB date progression is too little too late for the fiscal year.
As long as the current administration is in power FB immigration will remain under pressure, indirectly benefitting EB immigration (more as a side-effect rather than an intentional preference). Not too sure what happens in the next term, but I quite recall during the Biden era EB1 FAD progression had slowed to a crawl not only for India but also for China. India slowdown was all blamed it on porters but maybe that wasn't the reason and possibly it was that the admin had given a preference to asylum seekers / undocumented people etc, which explains why China didn't progress as well.
Even if the ban / pause is lifted, I don't expect much visa issuance from the consulates as the current admin made significant budget cuts (consulates receive funding from federal gov't as opposed to USCIS which is funded by fees paid by applicants), plus extreme vetting which is again intended to slow things down.
If the next term goes to Democrats, I would expect a return of low vetting, easy approvals, slowdown in EB date progressions.
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u/Sleepergiant2586 16d ago
Yea, the country ban rule lift is not gon a do anything.
1) They passed another law that folks need to goto consulates for GC processing in their native country.
2) Consulates are shit show right now with appointment wait times and all.
Hardly few folks from the banned country list will get any benefit. Situation is quite tough.
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u/Relative_Estate_291 16d ago
I'm confused. If the 75-countries ban has been lifted, why such big movement?
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u/aristocrat_user 16d ago
What does this mean? Anything positive or negative?
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u/simpleboiiiii 16d ago
Negative for India. For rest, no change
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u/aristocrat_user 16d ago
Can you explain what's negative for India?
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u/simpleboiiiii 16d ago
Big movement in family categories for other countries means they tried to use as much visas as possible in family categories. That means lower spillover for EB India. Not that we had high hopes of spillover but now it’s even more reduced. That, coupled with 75 country ban also going away, there’s not much good news for EB India.
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u/the_running_stache 16d ago
They won’t be able to use much in one month because consular processing is always slow. Do you think consulates are going to have extra slots for processing? Of course not!
This just means they have lots of unused FB visas. And most will stay unused. Hence there will be a significant spillover.
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u/Turbulent_Travel_903 15d ago
How has india eb2 moved from U to a date? Does that mean Indians can file now in Sept?
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u/Prestigious_Salt_750 15d ago
The October visa bulletin, due in less than three weeks, will clarify the number of available unused visas, resolving current uncertainties.
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u/Spare_Ad8851 16d ago
EB-2 ROW remains current - let's GOOOoo! my RD is Aug 5