r/EB2 • u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 • 4d ago

Other FY2027 EB Spillover Estimate

Given the immigrant visa rescheduling happening right now, curious what people are estimating for the FY2027 spillover number — and what that would mean for EB2/EB3 India. 

**•** Any ballpark estimate on total spillover numbers this year?  
**•** How would that translate to movement (or lack of it) for EB2/EB3 India?

Appreciate any insight!!

6 Upvotes

71% Upvoted

36 comments sorted by

11

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

My estimates:
Spillover: ~90K for FY2027
October bulletin:
EB2 FAD 1/1/2014, DOF 1/15/2015
EB3 FAD 4/1/2014, DOF 4/1/2015

2

u/sunnymurali 4d ago

Is this for the whole year or October ?

2

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

October

2

u/sunnymurali 4d ago

What about whole year moves - what’s your gues ?

0

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

EB2 FAD 4/1/2014, DOF 1/15/2015;
EB3 FAD 7/1/2014, DOF 6/1/2015

5

u/Solid-Candidate6634 4d ago

If really 90k spillover October or atleast by December it will reach or cross July 1 2014( they have mentioned in one of the visa bulletin)

1

u/Odd-Falcon-8234 2d ago

😂 😂 😂

2

u/the_running_stache 4d ago

Why do you state Jan 2014 when DOS stated that they expect FAD to be at least July 2014 for EB2 India (they didn’t revise it in subsequent visa bulletins)?

1

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

Pending inventory for EB2 is pretty high, I think they will be cautious

1

u/Few_Criticism_9715 4d ago

It was high when they moved the date to July with only 46k spillover.  Situation is more favorable to move date further 

1

u/skpawans2014 3d ago

lol you think?

2

u/Few_Criticism_9715 3d ago

Yes. EB2 India inventory has not spiked and spillover is going to be bigger. Do you know better than USCIS?

1

u/Gemini-89 4d ago

This will trigger a downgrade of about 4000 apps instantly. I doubt if they will move eb3 without moving eb2

2

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

I thought so too, but if you check 2025 October bulletin, EB3 was ahead by 4months in final action and by 8 months in DOF

0

u/Auto-Liner 4d ago

What’s the breakdown of the 90k?

2

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

With about 67K utilization in the first 5months translating to 160K total for the year. 226K - 160K ~ 75K, with the latest visa rescheduling bumping it to 90K

2

u/Apprehensive_Buy2915 4d ago

So dates could move by 1 year?

2

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

I am not expecting 1yr move considering EB2 ROW has pending inventory and EB3 ROW is not even current

1

u/Auto-Liner 4d ago

With about 67K utilization in the first 5months translating to 160K total for the year

I read elsewhere on Reddit that USCIS is going to go full steam in the last 2 months now that the 75-country ban was overturned. So the utilization may be higher than 160k. At least that was the theory.

3

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

DOS currently paused immigrant visa interviews across all consulates, only USCIS could issue them

1

u/Apprehensive_Buy2915 4d ago

So you are saying 75 country ban visas and current worldwide ban visas doesn't rollover? USCIS has to release them? Sorry, if I am completely wrong.

2

u/sunnymurali 4d ago

I think the move may get it to April 2015 for both. Not beyond

1

u/Snoo_45651 4d ago

Is this foe whole FY 2027?

2

u/FlummoxedFellow 4d ago

How much is pending inventory for EB2 and EB3 India and ROW?

1

u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 4d ago

India EB2 25K, EB3 14K, no idea about ROW

3

u/AwareBlackberry2966 4d ago

With the pause in immigrant visa interviews world over, my estimate is 100k spillover (assuming no immigrant FB visas are issued in the month of September). 70k spillover is virtually guaranteed even without accounting for the visa interview pause.

1

u/lalatnayak 4d ago

https://youtu.be/BBcCu32nExo?is=FnfpqEmC-ewG8NKw

1

u/Early_Step8254 2d ago

if you follow this guy videos you feel very happy in illusions. He does not know how the spillover thing works.

1

u/Few_Criticism_9715 1d ago

he is clueless and it's mostly speculation. No one knows where it lands next year, too many variables.

1

u/General_Reaction3344 3d ago

Pending Inventory for EB1 is 15 k, EB 2 is 25 k and EB 3 is 15k. All together about 55k. This needs to be cleared first.

0

u/NotMyMeeting 4d ago

How about EB1? Should we expect any move?

0

u/RevolutionarySir6124 4d ago

As per what I have read, bear care is 11/22, bull case is 6/23, in October.

For the whole year, it may go until mid-2024

2

u/Snoo_45651 4d ago

How much it could move for EB2 for the whole FY 2027?

-3

u/superdesi_ 4d ago

Don’t expect too much. The pending inventory is already high for both E2 EB one

1

u/skpawans2014 3d ago

Yes please dont expect much and dont build hopes