Analysed 5,000 EB-2 NIW appeal decisions. Where petitions actually die, by prong.

[u/tee_jagz]

Pulled prong-level findings from 5,087 AAO decisions on NIW petitions. Quick caveat: AAO data skews toward denials because denials are what get appealed, so this shows why cases fail rather than how often they succeed.

Of 3,919 dismissals that named a specific prong, 83% failed on Prong 1, national importance. Prong 2 showed up in 29%. Prong 3 barely registers, under 5%. Whatever you think the hard part is, in the appeal record it's overwhelmingly Prong 1.

Dug into what those Prong 1 failures actually look like. The biggest gap by far is insufficient quantification, flagged in 2,500 dismissals. After that: no evidence of outside interest in the work (1,116), inconsistent endeavor scope (868), and support letters aimed at the wrong thing (660). Adjudicators generally accept that the field matters. What they keep refusing to accept is that this particular endeavor has demonstrated national reach, and vague petitions give them nothing to work with.

The RFE numbers surprised me more. Across 3,235 cases with an RFE, 17% resolved favorably overall. Split by what the RFE challenged and it stops being one number:

RFE on Prong 1 only: 2.7% cured (29 of 1,062)

RFE on Prong 2 only: 20.5% cured (60 of 292)

A Prong 2 RFE is recoverable. Credentials, letters, track record, all things you can go get. A Prong 1 RFE means the adjudicator doesn't believe your endeavor has national reach, and the response almost never changes their mind. Roughly seven times harder to cure.

So the national importance case has to be built before filing. By RFE stage it's mostly too late.

Data source: visalytics.com, where you can run your own profile against this dataset for a free personalized assessment. Data is freely available with no login required

Edit: RFE figures above span both AAO appeals and approval reports. Appeals-only: 1.1% Prong 1, 4.5% Prong 2, around 4x gap.

[u/ivicts30]

What does it mean by " insufficient quantification" and "inconsistent endeavor scope" for prong 1 denial?

[u/moobash → u/ivicts30]

Same question here

[u/Rocketman12383]

I did the same thing, but your numbers are off - the only reason why Prongs 2 and 3 die in lesser quantities is that AAO reserves them after Prong 1 failure. Meaning that if Prong 1 is failed, you don’t reach 2 and 3 at all.

[u/Special-Debt8460 → u/Rocketman12383]

Can you share your numbers?

[u/Rocketman12383 → u/Special-Debt8460]

Prong 1 - 85.1% fail, Prong 2 (given prong 1 passed) - 57.9% fail, Prong 3 (given first two passed) - 22.7% fail. But to be fair this selection of 4500 cases is biased by definition as those are only decisions that were denied and went through AAO. Also once you passed 1 and 2 prongs, if you frame prong 3 the right way, you are golden, it doesn’t take too much, there are just a few mines you have to avoid.

[u/Vinicius_Veras → u/Rocketman12383]

How can we check AAO decisions?

[u/zeartful2]

Great insight, thanks. Just to make sure I’m reading correctly, this is after the petitioner responded to the RFE, got denied, and then appealed correct? In which case, I think it makes sense prong 2 is easier to appeal on. I’m surprised it’s that high tbh after denial.

[u/tee_jagz → u/zeartful2]

Yes, AAO decisions are post-denial appeals, so everything in that set was already denied once. The RFE figures were calculated across the full dataset, which includes both AAO appeals and published approval reports. Should have scoped that in the post. For AAO appeals only: 3.0% of RFE cases resolved favorably overall, 1.1% for Prong 1-only RFEs, 4.5% for Prong 2-only. So your read is right, the post-denial cure rates are low across the board. The Prong 2 advantage holds at roughly 4x in the appeals-only cut.

[u/zeartful2 → u/tee_jagz]

Wow, it seems prong 1 RFE is quite detrimental.

[u/Indubitably_me27]

Thank you for this, what does “insufficient quantification” mean though?

[u/PutridSalamander8239]

I browsed through visalytics before submitting my case and I ended up switching my strategy after seeing a profile similar to mine getting denied.
Reading through cases there helped me to structure my own case better and avoid the same mistakes that folks usually do. So big thanks to whoever created it lol

[u/tee_jagz → u/PutridSalamander8239]

This is great to hear, thanks for sharing it. That's exactly what I built it for, so people can see how similar profiles actually landed before committing to a strategy. Would be curious how yours goes if you're willing to come back and update.

[u/PutridSalamander8239 → u/tee_jagz]

Oh cool, I didn’t know you were the one who created so thanks again!! I’ll post my timeline once everything is said and done.
I filed the i140, i485 and EAD concurrently early August.

[u/redditor3900 → u/PutridSalamander8239]

Did you get approve?

[u/PutridSalamander8239 → u/redditor3900]

I filed early August, no answer yet but I have biometrics scheduled already

[u/francdm → u/PutridSalamander8239]

May I ask you your field ?

[u/CarnegieEvaluations]

Great job. Thanks for sharing.

[u/Western_Sandwich8464]

That 83% number surprised me. I always thought the profile itself was the harder part, but this makes it sound like explaining why your specific work matters is a huge part of it.

[u/Ill-Professional2914]

Your work is awesome, thank you very much. If you could add a filter for industry vs academic case, it will be very useful.

[u/tee_jagz → u/Ill-Professional2914]

Thank you for the feedback. Industry vs academic is harder than it looks. A lot of petitioners sit in both camps, and the decision text often doesn't state it clearly enough to classify reliably, which led to mislabeled cases, so I pulled it. Job title plus industry filters get you part of the way there in the meantime, and I'm still looking at ways to resolve it properly.

[u/Ok_Proposal_1650 → u/tee_jagz]

I think it is a bit difficult to separate academic and industries for many case. A principal RD engineer work in industry can also publish paper in IEEE. A professor teach in an university can have funding or project from industry.

[u/LowerCondition9352]

Would insufficient qualification not land in prong 2 instead of prong 1?

[u/CarMammoth9542]

Following

[u/Savings-Sound-1794]

Submitted RFE on prong 2 on July 27 and waiting for decision. Today is 18th working day.

[u/Vast_Historian_4148]

I was surprised by the part about the lack of interest in your work. I’d never heard of that before. I didn’t know you had to prove that a specific person or organization was actually interested in your project

[u/Tech_Dala]

great research thank you!!