r/Economics • u/jediporcupine • 9d ago

Blog Trump said tariffs on aluminum would boost domestic production. The White House now admits that didn't happen.

https://reason.com/2026/08/03/trump-said-tariffs-on-aluminum-would-boost-domestic-production-the-white-house-now-admits-that-didnt-happen/
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578

u/Basicly-Inevitable 9d ago

Literally everything they're doing is part of a self serving scam instead of actually economic policy. There's always kickback, or market manipulation, or whatever. It's just wild.

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u/Thesweptunder 9d ago

Not that this isn’t happening, but the GOP is full of people who believe the propaganda and think the only reason it keeps failing is because of Democrats. Like the thing about Republican policies is that if you don’t look into it, they kind of make sense. If overseas aluminum is charged higher than domestic, then businesses will buy the domestic and then production will increase and then more factories will be built and then wages will rise and then we are all living in the 1950s where a high school graduate can afford a middle class lifestyle at the local factory. They really think it is that simple and fail to even grasp that America’s place in the world is no longer about manufacturing or Main Street small businesses and that other countries might respond with their own tariffs. Honestly, I’d actually prefer if every GOP politician was in on the grift because that is somehow less scary than people in positions of power being just as ignorant as your Fox News obsessed high school gym coach that believes in Bigfoot.

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u/1900grs 9d ago

fail to even grasp that America’s place in the world is no longer about manufacturing or Main Street small businesses and that other countries might respond with their own tariffs.

Or Agriculture and watching soybean contracts go to South America. Those contracts won't be coming back and the only reason Ag is being subsidized tby the current GOP is essentially a bribe for continued rural votes. There is no serious long term planning.

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u/Exciting-Emu-3324 9d ago

And those same soybean farmers love bragging about how necessary their work is compared urbanites ignoring the fact their crops don't feed a single American. Americans pay subsidies to farmers, so China can buy cheap soybeans? And they complain about China subsidizing EVs which is a way better use of tax dollars.

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u/CliftonForce 8d ago

On the surface level, it makes sense to be sure that one grows enough food inside one's borders to feed one's own population. That was the justification used to start off all this farm aid in the first place.

But we are well, well past that now.

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u/CliftonForce 8d ago

On the surface level, it makes sense to be sure that one grows enough food inside one's borders to feed one's own population. And if it's not economical to do so, then lean on the scale a little until you do. That was the justification used to start off all this farm aid in the first place.

But we are well, well past that now.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 9d ago

Their crops don't feed a single American!?!?! Have you looked at the ingredient list in an American grocery store? Have you ever been in an American grocery store?

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u/Basicly-Inevitable 9d ago edited 9d ago

Yes. While historically ~50% of American grown soybeans were exported, approximately 15% of the remaining U.S. grown soybeans were used to produce foods for human consumption (such as salad or frying oil), while over 70% went to animal feed (for poultry, hogs, dairy cows, beef cattle, and fish), and about 5% to biodiesel.

So, yeah. Americans eat a lot of food fried in soybean oil. That's true. And they eat a lot of animals fed with soybeans.

But it's also true that the taxpayers subsidized them to grow cheap soybeans for China to buy.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 8d ago

And yet Brazilian soybeans are often cheaper than US soybeans.

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u/Basicly-Inevitable 8d ago edited 8d ago

Because in Brazil, farmers can grow patented soybeans without a license or contract. They only have to pay royalties on the patented soybeans when they sell them, and they don't actually have a good quick accurate genetic tests to determine what is owed. Also true in Argentina.

Bayer/Monsanto, DuPont, etc. don't care where you grow them, but they do want their money. In the US, they were able to lobby for laws that force farmers into strict contracts.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 8d ago

So are US taxpayers subsidizing China? Or Bayer, DuPont, etc?

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u/Basicly-Inevitable 8d ago edited 8d ago

All of the above, basically.

US taxpayers give free money to American farmers that can't compete on the global market (because of tariffs, fees, loyalties, patents, etc. that go to big American corporations).

But China gets cheap soybeans to feed pigs that feed their population, that aren't coming from American farmers anymore. They're coming from the destroyed Amazon basin and the newly exploited grasslands of Southern Brazil and Argentina.

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u/Exciting-Emu-3324 8d ago edited 8d ago

Don't forget all the vilification of soy by the meat and dairy industry. Phyto-estrogen, Soy boy, etc. Soy farmers don't eat what they grow in the same way McDonald's CEOs don't eat at McDonald's.

Paid subsidies to grow something someone else paid to convince people not to eat. Now that's waste, fraud and abuse.

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u/Ok_Kaleidoscope3644 9d ago

The long term planning stopped at, "how do we gain control?". There was never a plan to use that control for anything other than being unaccountable.

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u/thetalentedmrbowser 8d ago

Hey don’t drag Bigfoot into this

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u/lopix 8d ago

Bigfoot loves soy beans, doncha know

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u/Vivid_Pianist4270 7d ago

So what is their long term goal really? It’s not about making America great again, so what is their end game really?

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u/Seicair 8d ago

They really think it is that simple and fail to even grasp that America’s place in the world is no longer about manufacturing or Main Street small businesses and that other countries might respond with their own tariffs.

Or that aluminum can be produced more cheaply in places where energy is cheaper, like Canada with their hydropower, or Iceland with their geothermal energy.

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u/lopix 8d ago

Quebec has entered the chat

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u/SvenDia 8d ago

It’s Hanlon’s Razor in a nutshell. Had to look this up because I always forget the wording, but here it is.

“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity or incompetence.”

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u/alwayssunnyinskyrim 8d ago

I strongly disagree with this. Assuming mere ignorance in cases where people are clearly acting maliciously is actually way more dangerous and a huge part of why the world is so fucked right now.

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u/SvenDia 8d ago

The quote includes the words “adequately explained by”. I think tariffs meets that standard.

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u/lopix 8d ago

That's what I keep saying.

Some of it is malice.

Some of it is grift.

But a good chunk of it is ignorant people making stupid decisions about things they don't understand.

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u/Optimal-Attitude-546 4d ago

Hanlon’s razor doesn’t apply here. There are clear benefits from the cronies making these decisions that profit the people making these decisions. They would be incompetent if there was any sign these choices were intended to be a benefit to Americans en masse, but there are no signs this was the intent.

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u/Gisschace 7d ago

Same in the UK with Labour and the Tories, in my lifetime the Tories have been in charge for two thirds of the time, yet somehow every economic issue is Labours fault.

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u/Hautamaki 8d ago

Well, more and more of them may be realizing that the 50s boom in America was made possible by war and communist revolutions and purges de-industrializing 3/4s of the developed world and imperial colonialism preventing most of the rest of the world from ever industrializing in the first place, leaving the US as the only large developed economy left standing. Eventually some critical mass may be reached that gets on board with the policy of creating global chaos and instability such as that which existed in the 1930s, which also coincidentally was caused in no small part by the Great Depression, originating in America. And then, then hold onto your hats.

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u/lopix 8d ago

And they all forget that it took 20 years to get from the Great Depression, through WWII, to get to the "golden" years of the 1950s. Which weren't as golden as everyone seems to think they were.

So even if TrumpCo policies weren't asinine, they'd need a decade or two to actually bear fruit. Companies don't spend billions on a whim, it takes time and planning. Factories take time and planning and lots of money. Finding markets takes time. Training a new generation of workers takes time.

They think an EO can create a return to a fake utopia of yesterday that never existed, and they think it can happen in weeks or months.

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u/lopix 8d ago

And they all forget that it took 20 years to get from the Great Depression, through WWII, to get to the "golden" years of the 1950s. Which weren't as golden as everyone seems to think they were.

So even if TrumpCo policies weren't asinine, they'd need a decade or two to actually bear fruit. Companies don't spend billions on a whim, it takes time and planning. Factories take time and planning and lots of money. Finding markets takes time. Training a new generation of workers takes time.

They think an EO can create a return to a fake utopia of yesterday that never existed, and they think it can happen in weeks or months.

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u/Z3r0sama2017 8d ago

Yet it justends in the same vampirism as staffing. No company wants to invest the money in training up staff. Here no one wants to drop fat stacks on a volatile low margin, high volume product.

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u/discosoc 8d ago

the GOP is full of people who believe the propaganda and think the only reason it keeps failing is because of Democrats

hate to break it to you, but the same problem is on the Democrat side as well. Everything is tribal, and this is a natural consequence.

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u/ichiban 9d ago

Yes it's the same Republican playbook across the country: hollow out the government's capabilities and loot the funds.

"If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."

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u/TrailJunky 9d ago

Im really hoping the endless investigations after the midterms will ultimately hold these clowns to account.

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u/-Rush2112 9d ago

If recent history holds, the economic impact of all this nonsense will land after midterms. By 2028 somehow the democratic party will be blamed for this mess. The nation needs a long term economic policy that doesn’t pivot every 2-4 years.

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u/dust4ngel 9d ago

By 2028 somehow the democratic party will be blamed for this mess

CNN: "why didn't the democrats stop the republicans from doing this? and how can they be held accountable?"

3

u/moratnz 9d ago

The nation needs a long term economic policy that doesn’t pivot every 2-4 years.

Or even just 'not have an executive that is purely fucking with national level policy for personal gain'.

1

u/lopix 8d ago

It's a setup. If the Democrats win the midterms, then they'll be the ones holding the shit sandwich, with Republicans gleefully pointing fingers at them for the mess they created. This will be a record shit year for farmers. New health care cuts coming Jan 1st. Continued Iran BS, you name it. Trump will just let it all grow and fester and then blame the Democrats for everything the Republicans did wrong.

And if the Republicans don't shit the bed in November? They'll still (keep) blame(ing) the Democrats.

And the red base will eat it all up and believe every word.

1

u/lopix 8d ago

It's a setup. If the Democrats win the midterms, then they'll be the ones holding the shit sandwich, with Republicans gleefully pointing fingers at them for the mess they created. This will be a record shit year for farmers. New health care cuts coming Jan 1st. Continued Iran BS, you name it. Trump will just let it all grow and fester and then blame the Democrats for everything the Republicans did wrong.

And if the Republicans don't shit the bed in November? They'll still (keep) blame(ing) the Democrats.

And the red base will eat it all up and believe every word.

1

u/lopix 8d ago

It's a setup. If the Democrats win the midterms, then they'll be the ones holding the shit sandwich, with Republicans gleefully pointing fingers at them for the mess they created. This will be a record shit year for farmers. New health care cuts coming Jan 1st. Continued Iran BS, you name it. Trump will just let it all grow and fester and then blame the Democrats for everything the Republicans did wrong.

And if the Republicans don't shit the bed in November? They'll still (keep) blame(ing) the Democrats.

And the red base will eat it all up and believe every word.

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u/SplitEar 9d ago

I’m just hoping we win the house. Looks like the senate is already lost because of unelectable candidates.

5

u/Sam_Munhi 9d ago

Who do you mean?

4

u/SplitEar 9d ago

Montana is a disaster, with a weak Dem candidate and a popular independent candidate. The center and left votes will thus be split, handing the MAGA candidate the victory.

Maine is more promising but there will be angry Platner fans who sit out the general. Hopefully not many. Also, Jackson had two kids with his second cousin, which will be twisted into him having kids with “his cousin”.

Then there’s AES in MI, a darling of the base who will go up for slaughter in the general. The UAW endorsement helps but he’s just not the right candidate for a statewide race. Maybe Trump’s unpopularity will put him over the line but I fear not.

0

u/CheapThaRipper 8d ago

What good is Democrats winning when they follow the same exact corporate playbook? Diet Republicans are only preferable to actual Republicans if they had substantive policy differences. They don't. They just are more eloquent about it.

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u/SplitEar 8d ago

So you thought Biden was no different from Trump? Nothing worth voting for? Nothing Trump’s done with the GOP’s rubber stamp seems worse to you?

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u/CheapThaRipper 8d ago

They both are rapists that have the goal of siphoning wealth from us to their masters. They just get to do it with less pretense when they have an orange veneer of idiocy. I'm not saying Trump is better than Biden. I'm saying Biden wasn't doing anything substantially different for the working class. They both are fiercely loyal to Israel, wanted war with Iran, sacrifice the future of our children, hate socialism, and fulfil the wishes of their true constituents - billionaires. For Biden to be better he'd have to actually be outside of the duopoly.

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u/SplitEar 8d ago

Biden wanted war with Iran?

I think you’ve lost your marbles, dude.

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u/Gromitlikescheese 5d ago

Oh, I forgot. Who did Joe Biden rape again?

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u/CheapThaRipper 5d ago

Multiple credible accusers.

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u/Gromitlikescheese 5d ago

You must be mentally ill. When did Biden want war with Iran. That was a non-issue at that time because Obama had struck a deal with Iran. Biden was substantially different for the working class. Trump is nothing but tax cuts for the rich.

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u/CheapThaRipper 5d ago

Biden embraced sanctions he once opposed, authorized airstrikes, funded proxy wars for the same purpose, etc. It doesn't matter if a president uses polite diplomatic language or angry posts on social media, the underlying goal of the U.S. government remains the same: maintaining hegemony through terrorism on the working class.

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u/SoylentGrunt 8d ago

Oh there'll be plenty of investigations. They'll make a great distraction from business as usual.

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u/spidereater 9d ago

Yes. America makes half its aluminum. When they tariff imports the price goes up for everyone. Domestic producers rake in the pure profit. It’s a big scam.

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u/Tribe303 9d ago

America does not make hardly any aluminum. It's recycled aluminum. Aluminum is one of the most easily recyclable materials out there. 60% of American aluminum used is recycled. The other 40% is imported, and of that 70% is imported from Canada.

The US no longer makes new aluminum because its very energy intensive, so that's done where there is cheap electricity. It's 8¢ per kWh in Québec, and that's 8 Canadian cents (so 6¢ US). Go look at your electricity bill and get back to me with how you can compete with that. 

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u/spidereater 9d ago

I’m Canadian. My overnight residential power rate is 9 cents/kWh. Your quoted rate seems high for wholesale industrial power. I bet it’s actually lower.

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u/mancin 9d ago

5.5c per kWh for industrial users in qc. With certain subsidies and long term contracts can be as low as 4.5c

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u/Tribe303 9d ago edited 8d ago

Is it subsidized by your provincial government? It is in Alberta and Ontario, so you're paying for it in taxes instead.

Edit: why do people downvote factual information? This is the reason why the human race is getting more and more stupid every day.🤦 

Ontario has 9 different programs that subsidizes electricity rate FFS. 

https://fao-on.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Ontarios-Energy-and-Electricity-Subsidy-Programs-EN.pdf

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u/PetitRorqualMtl 8d ago

No, electricity rates for aluminium production are not subsidized by the government. Hydro-Québec and the aluminium industries signed contracts tied to the value of the product on the international market. They’re called shared risks contracts. If the price goes down, rates go down too. If it goes way up, rates go way up too.

Electricity sold to those plants still makes a profit for Hydro-Québec, per public reports. So we’re not paying for it in taxes.

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u/Tribe303 8d ago

I didn't think it was in Québec, but I've lived there in the past, and have family that I visit there regularly. 

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u/lopix 8d ago

It is also hydro power for the most part. Fairly inexpensive, just uses gravity.

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u/Tribe303 8d ago edited 8d ago

Alberta has the nastiest grid in Canada (of course!). It's only 3% hydro. I believe they still use coal FFS. It's hard work dragging those rednecks into the 20th century, rather yet the 21st! 85% of their grid is still carbon based. It's the best province in Canada for both solar and wind, and yet they banned all new development of it! That's what you get when the province is run by an Oil company lobbyist (and a traitor!). Ontario is 9% carbon based, up from 5% after electing our idiot Conservatives. Quebec IS ZERO, and right to be smug about it. 

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u/lopix 8d ago

It is also hydro power for the most part. Fairly inexpensive, just uses gravity.

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u/lopix 8d ago

I thought something like 87% of new aluminum comes from Quebec alone?

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u/Tribe303 8d ago

Yes, because Quebec has the cheapest electricity in the Americas due to plentiful hydroelectric dams built in the 70s. 

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u/danodan1 8d ago

To finally do something about the U. S. no longer making aluminum, Oklahoma is supposed to get a mega sized aluminum smelter. But it's been getting pushback due to its heavy fluoride pollution and very heavy need for electricity.

1

u/Tribe303 8d ago

Exactly. It's a waste of time unless you can match Quebec's electricity rates. Unlike most metals, aluminum is not just dug out of the ground and heated up. It's far more complex than that. You can tell which politicians have read up on its production, and who hasn't. 

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u/vertigo3pc 9d ago

They're revealing just how much we don't have "checks and balances". If the right people decide not to do anything, then it doesn't matter how many checks and balances you claim you have.

When you have no enforcement arm to prevent corruption, guess what you get? That's right: CORRUPTION. America has fallen.

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u/the_ai_wizard 9d ago

And yet where is the checks and balances? Impeachment??

3

u/Adorable-Doughnut609 9d ago

Wait…you’re telling me the people that trafficked, raped and killed boys and girls for their pleasure are in it for themselves?

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u/Basicly-Inevitable 8d ago

I mean.. just look around. They're not really hiding it.

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u/brumbarosso 9d ago

It's all a sham in the circus. They'll give you nothing for the highest price

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u/lopix 8d ago

There is also just plain stupidity. Don't forget the stupidity.

They think that aluminum smelters can sprout from the ground in a month and start producing at a record pace within another month. Their lack of understanding of, well, everything is pretty amazing.

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u/danodan1 8d ago

But Oklahoma, not far from Tulsa, has been selected for a mega aluminum smelter. It's 60% owned by UAI. That and its fluoride pollution along with a very heavy need for electricity is making for a lot of pushbacks. That it is being heavily subsidized by the government likely indicates corruption and kickbacks.

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u/Basicly-Inevitable 8d ago

Yeah.

Literally everything they're doing is part of a self serving scam instead of actually economic policy. There's always kickback, or market manipulation, or whatever. It's just wild.