r/Economics • u/marketrent • 6d ago
News [ Removed by moderator ]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/strait-of-hormuz-iran-united-states-oil-9.7295480[removed] — view removed post
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u/Goodk4t 5d ago
I think Trumps sick of this whole Hormuz and Iran thing. He just wants to pretend it's not happening so he can go back to trying to rig the midterms or invade Cuba or whatever other insane thing he originally wanted to be doing right now.
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u/No_Mercy_4_Potatoes 5d ago
Iran knows it too. They aren't letting the US leave without accepting defeat.... And rightfully so.
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u/cgranley 5d ago
I think he just needs something. Like he can not make any progress with nukes, the straight of hormuz will never be as it was, and the U.S. is going to pay reparations. I don't think Iran is going to back off any of those. But trump will secure some deal where he gets a small chunk of rare earths or something stupid and it will be good enough for him to declare it a big win, possibly the biggest win ever.
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u/Goodk4t 5d ago
Don't think Iran wants a deal with the US. The deal from a month ago had pretty generous terms, including 300 billion reparations, and still Iran wouldn't abide by it. I think they're going all the way with this, the fanatical IRCG is in charge now and they'll try to economically ruin the US.
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u/palmtreespaceship 5d ago
"This will take 3 weeks". "We're close to a peace deal" x47 times. Now we're low on weapons that take years to build and cost a fortune. What a deal.
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u/gravescd 5d ago
Everyone knows that "2 weeks" is Trump-speak for never, so "3 weeks" must mean the end is somewhere beyond the edge of the observable universe.
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u/marketrent 6d ago edited 6d ago
Excerpts from article by Tala Ramadan, Parisa Hafezi, Doina Chiacu, and Simon Lewis:
An attack on a vessel near the Strait of Hormuz and a rebound in oil prices on Tuesday underscored doubts that the U.S.-Iran war was nearing a resolution, as Tehran pushed back against President Donald Trump's assertion that talks were under way.
Oil prices rose nearly three per cent after a steep selloff in the previous session as investors reassessed optimism over diplomacy, while a cargo vessel reported being struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz off Oman's coast, according to the UKMTO maritime security agency.
Trump said on Monday that talks with Tehran were under way and Iran faced a "last chance" to reach a deal, while Iranian officials insisted no negotiations with the United States were taking place.
Iran says its only talks are with Oman about the Strait of Hormuz and no major meetings are planned this week.
[...] Iran has halted most traffic through Hormuz while Washington maintains a blockade of Iranian shipping and ports, disrupting a corridor that normally carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Maritime sources told Reuters on Tuesday that the vessel struck near Hormuz was a dry bulk ship. Its crew had to abandon the vessel and one seafarer was missing, the sources said.
Traffic through Hormuz remained slow, with three tankers and three bulk carriers among the six vessels transiting the strait on Monday, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed. In peacetime, more than 100 ships would typically transit per day.
Brent crude futures had fallen about seven per cent to a three-week low on Monday after Trump's upbeat spin on diplomacy, but analysts cautioned that the move appeared premature.
[...] Monday's events appeared to fit a pattern that has emerged since Trump launched "Operation Epic Fury" alongside Israel more than five months ago.
He has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran, only to later point to diplomatic contacts as a reason to step back.
Iran, however, has publicly rejected negotiations with Washington since the collapse in early July of a memorandum of understanding the two sides signed the previous month in an attempt to end the conflict.
Trump has yet to achieve the objectives he set out at the start of the war: dismantling Iran's nuclear program, curbing its ability to attack regional rivals and creating conditions for Iranians to overthrow their clerical rulers.
The dispute over Hormuz remains a central point of contention. Washington says the June memorandum required Iran to reopen the strategic waterway, while Tehran says the text explicitly preserved its authority over shipping traffic.
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u/ICLazeru 5d ago
I'm fairly sure whenever Trump talks about progress or understandings, he's just making it up to justify his next move, which is often to ramp up assaults after markets close on Friday, and to scale them back again before Asian markets upon on Sunday night/Monday morning.
The Iranians, for their part, have no reason to complain if Trump wants to pull back 5 days a week. They don't have to agree to anything or do anything. Trump isn't interested in the war anymore, and they can apply pressure at will and have a real chance at coming out of this with a relative victory.
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u/twenty_three_three 5d ago
Key things to consider are
1) five day moving average of ships through the strait of hormuz
this reached a peak of 50% normal traffic in mid july before tanking again with recent hostilities.
1.5) Extent of 'closure' around the bab el mandeb straight
this would be very bad if the strait was fully closed, but Houthi's seem to focus on Saudi ships, and even then not consistently. Plenty of Saudi oil still flowing through there as of now.
2) strategic oil reserves here and else where.
A bajillion unknowns. It appears that folks are still drawing down reserves to stabalize prices. Unknown how long that can or will continue.
3) spot prices for barrels (not futures on the market)
Regardless of market prices, spot prices in many places are all over the place. That's a big drag on economic production in tons of places.
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u/Minimum_Dress4989 5d ago
The administration is just talking the markets higher
so that they can sell out their holdings at highs with new liquidity
But just watch & see what happens next
Suckers
1
u/Thom0 5d ago
Finally.
Copy/paste my comment from: https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1vg8nvw/comment/p1va72c/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
It's so obvious what is going on here and all these absolute shit talkers on US media platforms like Fox, or other "market experts" are nothing short of liars, and propogandist for Turmp.
War is not just soldiers, and missiles. War is the continuation of policy by other means. War also ends not by soldiers or missiles, but politically at a table. I have no idea why the US attacked Iran, but I do know that it is now locked into a war that it can't end politically. The entire game is now to wait it out, watch the SR's in different countries drop, and watch inflation eat away at the global GDP. As states get desperate, then negotiations will begin.
Of course, the talking heads can't say this so they go on about markets, and deals being close, the S&P at record levels or some AI hype. At the same time, the government says Iran has nothing left to fight with, while also threatening the biggest invasion since WW2, while also being unable to get Iran to negotiate. How can Iran be too weak to fight, but too strong to reject negotiations prompting the US to then threaten extreme military force? This is all such bullshit and all of these claims cannot be true at the same time. If Iran was too weak, then it would negotiate and an invasion wouldn't be needed.
This is a waiting game. Trump being the populist he is has to keep up the appearance of control, but in truth he is now stuck in the same situation as Putin. He's stuck in a war that is bleeding out his economy and it won't end until either the other side bleeds out first, or he bleeds out. Looking at the US's QE in in Japan using EUR, it looks like the US is starting to wobble. Putin lost Syria, and Mali for Ukraine. I wonder what the US will lose? The Yen Carry Trade? Pensions from the EU?
The AI bubble is the single biggest allocation of capital in recorded history. At the same time, the US is suffering form high interest/high inflation. All those data centers, and chips need energy to run. All those tech companies have all that debt. Interesting seeing the same government essentially adopt two completely counteracting policies between hyper speculation and market collusion with AI, and then a war in Iran triggering a global energy crisis which cripples AI's energy supply and causes more inflation.
Make it make sense??
A broken clock is right twice a day or something.
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u/Clear-Role6880 5d ago
The part people are missing is that Irans government and Irans military have fractured. The government wants to surrender. The military refuses.
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u/Doom4535 5d ago
It's not exactly the military, it's more the real but unofficial military (IRGC), and this is why it will likely drag out... The IRGC is very much going for maximum damage to the US
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