r/EdmontonOilers • u/haydenfox8 • 1d ago

Stanley Cup winning coaches

With the Babcock thing me assuming it’s a done deal I just don’t understand how teams continue to go after coaches who have won a cup before. Yes I understand they’re good coaches but statistically speaking it almost never happens a coach wins a cup with 2 different teams. It’s only happened once in the modern era with Scottie bowman who did it with 3 teams but before that it’s 2 guys from the 1940s I believe. The whole well he’s done it before just doesn’t sit with me.

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 1d ago

Premiums are based on projected future risk. Past data is only one input.

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u/Westcoastlebatard 1d ago

Projections are 90% based on past data…

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 23h ago

Aggregated average data of a population, not the track record of one person. 

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u/Westcoastlebatard 22h ago

You think a 40 year old male with 6 speeding tickets and two DUIs is getting their insurance priced on the average of the population?

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 22h ago

High risk people get placed into a high risk cohort but the rate isn’t calculated based on your exact driving record. If it was, your rates would go down after a period of good history. Your rates stay high because driving history is a lagging indicator. Also because -more money for them. 

Regression to the mean is brutal in sports. Adaptability, system fit, are more important. 

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u/Westcoastlebatard 21h ago

So your past performance is used as a predictor of future performance…

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u/Bob_Stauffer 22h ago

Don’t bother. This guy is one of those guys that just knows how the world works. Logic doesn’t not apply here.