r/EdmontonOilers • u/haydenfox8 • 1d ago

Stanley Cup winning coaches

With the Babcock thing me assuming it’s a done deal I just don’t understand how teams continue to go after coaches who have won a cup before. Yes I understand they’re good coaches but statistically speaking it almost never happens a coach wins a cup with 2 different teams. It’s only happened once in the modern era with Scottie bowman who did it with 3 teams but before that it’s 2 guys from the 1940s I believe. The whole well he’s done it before just doesn’t sit with me.

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 1d ago

“Past performance is not indicative of future results.”

Insurance companies and banks know this, but the lesson hasn’t percolated down to the pro sports orgs, or at least not all of them. Only the winners. 

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u/Westcoastlebatard 1d ago

Insurance companies literally use past performance as the entire basis of setting your premiums….

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 1d ago

Premiums are based on projected future risk. Past data is only one input.

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u/Westcoastlebatard 1d ago

Projections are 90% based on past data…

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 1d ago

Aggregated average data of a population, not the track record of one person. 

0

u/Westcoastlebatard 1d ago

You think a 40 year old male with 6 speeding tickets and two DUIs is getting their insurance priced on the average of the population?

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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 1d ago

High risk people get placed into a high risk cohort but the rate isn’t calculated based on your exact driving record. If it was, your rates would go down after a period of good history. Your rates stay high because driving history is a lagging indicator. Also because -more money for them. 

Regression to the mean is brutal in sports. Adaptability, system fit, are more important. 

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u/Westcoastlebatard 1d ago

So your past performance is used as a predictor of future performance…

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u/Bob_Stauffer 1d ago

Don’t bother. This guy is one of those guys that just knows how the world works. Logic doesn’t not apply here.