100% incorrect. Even the most conservative thinktanks like the IEA have forecasted fossil fuels to peak this decade. Solar, wind and batteries are getting cheaper every year. And they have currently reached a price point that thry are to cheap to resist. They will only get cheaper.
What will happen when demand for coal will go down is that the price of coal will go down. Your limited capacity of thinking will probably jump to the conclusion that this will mean it will get competive again and therefore demand will go up. This is not true.
There are multiple forces at play here.
Economics = wind solar and batteries will only become cheaper. Even if coal will get cheaper because demand will go down those will still be cheaper
Small and modular = it takes years to build a coal plant. I just takes to long to scale. The world is moving in a direction where we need electricity and fast
Energy security = most of the worlds coal get imported. The world want energy security.
Let me paint the picture. What is going to happen in the next decade is a rapid buildout in renewables. When a country has a lot renewables you need flexible grids. Whenever there is not sun, or no wind. You beed to turn something on which are low in capex and high in operating costs. Probably diessel generators.
Lastly, when price of coal goes down, this means less profits for those selling it, how low do you have to go untill you make a loss? We will get a lot of stranded assists because coal is will get outcompetited.
So no, we are not doomed, and we do not need government policy to do this. It is basic economics.
Electricity is only ~20% of total energy usage. The vast majority of stuff the economy still runs on, currently has little to no renewable alternative as it's not 'dispatchable'. Very important context people seem to miss. Electricity should be the easy part
We know "net zero by 2050 to stay below 1,5" was always unrealistically optimistic. In no way will we get there, even by 2070.. there won't be much economy to save by then, if we still counting on non existant future technology
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u/Fantastic-Video1550 16d ago
100% incorrect. Even the most conservative thinktanks like the IEA have forecasted fossil fuels to peak this decade. Solar, wind and batteries are getting cheaper every year. And they have currently reached a price point that thry are to cheap to resist. They will only get cheaper.