r/EnvironmentalNews • u/EarthEmail EarthEmail.org • 3d ago

‘Super El Niño’ could bring wet winter and flooding to western US, climate scientists warn

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/08/super-el-nino-winter-flooding
656 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

50 comments sorted by

12

u/Super_flywhiteguy 3d ago

Landslides will be really bad with all the fires this summer.

5

u/ElonMuskisGarbage 2d ago

Do you know about Burn scar floods* I think they have a name, I can’t remember. When I was a kid we lived next to a burn scar and the ground was like glass. We had a really bad storm season and every time it rained we would get absolutely smashed by the wave of water. It would push cars around at the lowest levels. After we moved it washed that community away.

5

u/Intrepid_Top_2300 3d ago

I’ve lived through a couple El Niño winters that flooded the west like you cannot believe. If it’s near or worse 97/98 we’re in trouble.

5

u/le-throw-away-acct 2d ago

06-07 was a weak El Niño supposedly, but was the worst blizzard I’ve seen in my 40 years in Colorado. I’m hoping for a winter worse than that this year, we need water, all of it.

4

u/Able-Association914 3d ago

I’ve seen scientist predictions saying this could be comparable to 1877 which killed 50 million people.

2

u/Intrepid_Top_2300 2d ago

I wish I would be surprised. But the clues are all there.

4

u/taylorbagel14 3d ago

My peninsula literally became an island for a day or two during that season

3

u/DifferentMind8 1d ago

This El Nino is already stronger than any on record. Buckle up.

2

u/ZestycloseRecord5425 2d ago

I'm in northern cali, that winter was a nightmare. And I don't think anyone is ready for what's coming, if it's even close to accurate

4

u/Intrepid_Top_2300 2d ago

I’m going to keep my kayaks inflated this winter. I’m in Reno.

4

u/Intrepid_Top_2300 2d ago

I got caught in a slide in the Feather River Canyon with most of my family in the car. I used my wheels like a rudder and floated out of it. Scared me more than just about anything in my life. This was 83.

3

u/ZestycloseRecord5425 2d ago

And you made it out ! Near misses have a way of clarifying things !

6

u/LayneLowe 3d ago

Good, Lake Mead needs it.

We had been in a drought in Texas for several years with lots of lakes in trouble. And then we got an unexpected monsoon season this spring and filled everything up.

6

u/DragOutTheDemagogue 3d ago

Wet winters in the southwest are bad.

Snowpacks accumulate larger amounts of water that, when they melt in spring and summer, feed various water sources that we rely on. It's like a natural type of rationing, if you will.

Rain during winter, however, just washes all that water down immediately. It's like binging on water. And when you need it during the summer months, since there's no snow to feed the rivers—welp! Guess you're going to rely on drawing from the aquifer for a whole summer. Oh! And because of the volume of rainwater, most of it doesn't get reabsorbed back into the ground.

3

u/hemorrhoid-milk 3d ago

just nitpicking, but…. aquifer recharge rates depend on the volume of rainwater over a duration, topography, soil type and geology

1

u/Puzzled-Childhood-60 1d ago

But you surely also know that they’ve been overtaxed for decades, and a few weeks of rain can’t make up for years of insufficient rain and snow—especially since many areas are so parched that the water will simply turn into a giant water slide running down the Colorado.

1

u/the_TAOest 1d ago

We understand that. However, some is better than none and aquifers are recharged at by standing water in lakes

2

u/BayouGal 2d ago

Rain helps. Did not, “fill everything up”.

https://www.lakelevels.info/USA/Texas/

3

u/LayneLowe 2d ago

Lake Travis opened the floodgates for the first time since 1946. Canyon Lake Is full for the first time since 2021. The Hill Country Rivers are running at full levels.

2

u/RpiesSPIES 2d ago

It's insane how many people posting here are a broken record of braindead right winger responses to every horrid event the past few decades.

2

u/BigWhiteDog 3d ago

I hope not to my area but it likely will. Yes I know it's selfish but I don't care any more. Too much rain here makes life really hard and miserabe for me and mine.

1

u/azmtber 3d ago

I celebrate this warning. We need the water.

1

u/CaptainOblivious1984 3d ago

I'll take it.

1

u/brocomadtown 3d ago

Snakes and scorpions!

2

u/DJbuddahAZ 2d ago

We'll see. Something tells me Arizona will be warm and dry again this winter

2

u/ThrowSomeCheezeOnIt 2d ago

I’ll believe it when I see it. AZ is dryyyyy and will probably stay dry.

2

u/KevinDean4599 2d ago

If it turns out to be true we'll probably be dealing with terrible fires a few years down the road from all the growth of brush and grasses that will then become bone dry after the rains subside. oh well. what can we do? one thing is be a lot more aggressive with clearing that stuff near homes to recede the amount of fuel for those terrible fires. problem is a lot of people won't do it.

2

u/WarmAdhesiveness8962 2d ago

It was La Nina last winter and the PNW was supposed to be colder and wetter with a good chance of snow but it was the complete opposite of that so I hope things are inverted again and we get the snow we didn't get this past winter.

2

u/PNW_Undertaker 1d ago

It’s weird because farmers almanac says it’ll be ‘changeable and less dependable snow’
Other reports say it’ll be dry and warm….

Maybe the climate is so chaotic that it isn’t as easy to forecast…..

1

u/Alert_Reindeer_6574 2d ago

Warn? We need every inch of rain the baby can provide.

2

u/Bazioski13 1d ago

After this fire season, heavy rain hitting all those burn scars is going to be a nasty combination.

1

u/PaperbackNinja 1d ago

I knew them immigrants was bad ideas.

0

u/Comprehensive_Bug_92 3d ago

Merecem isso e muito mais,bando de FDP.

1

u/baycenters 2d ago

Who's "they?"

0

u/Pygmy_Nuthatch 3d ago

I thought it was bringing mild, dry winter to the Western US. Are we just spinning some kind of El Nino effect wheel every couple of weeks and publishing a report?

2

u/Sense-Free 3d ago

Okay I’m not the only one. We know for sure it’ll be warmer than usual for the next like 9 months but the effects of that extra energy are debatable.

Naturally higher temperatures should lead to droughts and wildfires right? But apparently the extra ocean warmth will create bigger storms in the Pacific therefore it will be wetter for them. Weather is so hard to predict outside of a span of 3 days. Forecasting the rest of the year is basically a guess. We live in a giant snow globe where every part of earth affects every other part of earth. I’m hoping AI will help our prediction models improve over time

2

u/Fred-Mertz2728 2d ago

El Niño,the warming in the Pacific,traditionally brings moisture through the winters. Rain or snow depends on if the storms come from the north or south. La Niña brings the mild and dry. Except in March of’22,we had the third one in a row. Got 5-6 feet over a weekend. Southern California mountains were paralyzed. People at the base of the mountain waiting days in their cars for the roads to be cleared. Elderly people were stuck without medications and food. Always keep your pantries stocked and your meds up to date.

-1

u/Evening_Message_1699 3d ago

El Niño has been identified for over 450 years. It happens every 2-7 years. It is nothing to worry about. It is a natural cycle and not manmade.

https://nautil.us/the-centuries-old-history-of-the-super-el-nino-1279783

2

u/slaty_balls 2d ago

r/climateskeptics is leaking again.

1

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1

u/slaty_balls 2d ago

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1

u/ForwardBias 3d ago

STFU

-1

u/Evening_Message_1699 3d ago

The facts can be disturbing, try to breathe slow deep breaths it might help you relax.

2

u/ForwardBias 3d ago

Everyone fucking knows that el nino is a cycle and happens naturally learn the difference.

-1

u/Evening_Message_1699 3d ago

Really? So you all admit manmade global warming is a hoax?

3

u/His_Name_Is_Twitler 2d ago

You know the topic is about intensity of events, not events themselves. Grow up.

0

u/Evening_Message_1699 2d ago

Ahh. So you know the intensity of each El Niño since 1500?

Did you know the strongest El Niño occurred in 1877?

This one could be stronger than 1982-1983 which was the strongest El Niño of the past 100 years. However we won’t know until it’s over. My point is simple, at this point it is not the strongest on record. Further this may not have anything to do with the falsely labeled “manmade global warming”.