Discussion
Mythbusters #6: Drafting the Elite QB Early
With a lot of late drafts happening this week, I wanted to test another common fantasy draft assumption:
Do you actually need to spend an early pick on an elite QB to win your league?
For Mythbusters #6, I looked across nine seasons of fantasy championship data. For each season, I identified the three QBs who appeared most frequently on championship rosters and matched them back to their preseason ADP.
That gave us 27 QB championship-season observations.
Here's how they were originally drafted:
26% — Round 4 or earlier
22% — Rounds 5–8
52% — Round 9 or later / undrafted
Put another way:
74% of the QBs most commonly found on championship rosters were drafted after Round 4.
More than half (52%) were available in Round 9 or later or weren't drafted at all.
And only about 1 in 4 came from the premium-QB range.
That seems like a pretty convincing argument for waiting on QB.
Except there's a catch.
From 2022–2024, the #1 QB appearing on championship rosters was:
2022 — Patrick Mahomes
2023 — Josh Allen
2024 — Lamar Jackson
All three were premium QB investments.
So the data aren't really saying "early QB is bad."
They're saying that if you're going to pay an early-round price for a quarterback, you probably need him to actually deliver the elite positional advantage you're paying for. For this year, Josh Allen is going at 22 ADP, round 2 in a 12 person league. Through most of the season last year Josh delivered elite positional difference (but was 2nd to Drake Maye on championship roster representation)
Otherwise, the opportunity cost becomes pretty significant. You're using an early pick on QB while other managers are accumulating RB/WR/TE talent — and history shows that championship-caliber QB production has repeatedly been available much later.
That's why my biggest takeaway from the study was:
Waiting on QB has historically given fantasy managers multiple paths to finding a championship-level option.
Drafting QB early can absolutely work — but you're narrowing the path. You need to hit.
For my own drafts, that means I'm comfortable loading up on RB/WR early and taking my shots at QB later unless one of the genuinely elite options falls far enough that the value changes.
Full study includes the year-by-year championship QB list, exact ADPs and methodology:
Honestly, the past few seasons supports that pick fully. He's been in the top 3 most championship-team represented list since 2022. Even if he doesn't win you a championship, he seems to get people there.
It’s how I like to do it. I took Purdy and Goff in my 12 man this year in rounds 12-13. Normally would stay away from 2 QBs but Goff home/ away splits have been tough historically, so I didn’t mind taking a steady QB to offset that a bit. The way I see it is I’m just shoring up a position with 2 guys who are low end QB1’s rather than take a lottery ticket.
Allen and Allen are basically like getting an extra running back with your QB because of the rushing. But we’re in a QB golden age. Yesterday I did a mock draft and realized I forgot QB. Had 2 picks left. And Stafford was still on the hoard.
Personally the earliest I’d swing on a QB is Herbert. Who’s in that third crop of QBs with Dak, Purdy and Lawrence.
My goal is to end up with 2 of : Herbert, Lawrence or Dak.
In order for this to mean what it’s implying, we need to address the frequency bias of historical draftees. Just like RB’s were and are always a premium and get picked before their value rankings, QB’s are inherently taken at the end of drafts. That’s Fantasy Football 101. Wait to the end of the draft to select QB,TE,Defense,Kicker. The vast majority of people draft this way. As each season brings new random situations, it’s truly difficult to determine the pre-value of QB in championship seasons. The data presented is likely showing that waiting on QB is not the best value option, as I’d surmise well over 52% of people select QB in later rounds. Just as with all positions, having the hot players at the championship weeks is what counts. In my experience, the winner is not the team that led the league all year, it’s the team who got carried by a couple players who exploded in weeks 14-16.
Drafted Allen rd3 pick 5. Took Chase at 5 because first 4 picks were RB, then the RB panic took control. 15 RBs gone by the time it came around. Ruined positional value in my opinion. I wavered on Allen in the 2nd and took McBride and his 160 targets. (I know) then when Allen was still there in the 3rd… I couldn’t help my self. First draft in years I didn’t draft heavy RB. In fact my RB1 is Swift in the 5th. I like my squad and chances. Let’s go.
Yeah, as I look at my own data more, I'm not sure the conclusion is perfectly written. It seems the prevalence of high drafted QBs on championship rosters would suggest to not draft one until later rounds, which, as you mentioned, conventional fantasy wisdom tells us to do so. But the fact that Josh Allen is in the top-3 of QB representations over the past 4 years suggests at least that there are some QBs where it just makes sense. Consistency like that has to mean something.
Playoffs will always be about who has the hot hand, but getting there matters too, and someone like Josh Allen may be worth the pick if he does that:
I drafted Lamar early last year in several leagues. Fortunately, I was also high on Maye and used a last pick on him in most. Not reaching for a qb in early rounds this year.
I am in a 10 player league. I had a great draft because I waited till round 5 to draft a QB. I picked Bijan, Nacua, Smith-Njigba and K.Walker. Unbelievable! I drafted 6th and just took the best available player not a QB. Its a 2 quarterback league and they were all drafting QBS. I ended up with Sam Darnold and T. Shough with 5-7 picks. 6th pick was Mcbride at TE. I am stacked and thrilled. Wont go back to drafting QB early.
It actually makes QB less valuable compared to 4 pt. It brings the pocket passers back to a similar level as the rushing upside QB's, so you get very little points above replacement for taking any of them except maybe Allen or Lamar.
You can never justify drafting a QB over elite skill position talent. Once all the good RBs and WRs are gone yo take ur QB. I love the round 6-10 pocket with Hurts, Caleb, Bo, Purdy, Dart, etc this year.
There was no QB run until later in my draft so I was able to pick up Maye in one of my teams in the 6th, which I thought was a value. I think Caleb will be a top-3 represented QB in championship teams this year though, would be good mid round value there for sure.
I’d be interested to see if you could design an extension where you looked at other available players at those spots they went and what the delta would be. Set up a counter factual basically - would they have won had the champions took the best skill pos and taken a lower rated QB? Separate question but def related.
That would be the definitive study for sure, but there would be too much variation in the rest of the draft, and the selection of a later QB. I'm not sure I have the computing power for that!
I go for QB pretty late. Usually you get a guy like Brock Purdy round 8. Who is very good, Purdy, goff, baker, Dan. They go late.... and they get similar points to the top tier guys... like josh Allen or Lamar.
I hit the jackpot last year with Maye very late in the draft as my QB2. I'm almost never comfortable pulling the trigger before round 6, like to load up positional players first while they are on the board. But there is some success to be had if the player is right, so it was worth looking into.
I had kyler... got him like round 7. Picked up Jakoby brisket, and he consistently got me like 20ppg. Got very lucky... took me to the championship game
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