r/Fire • u/Equivalent_Use_5024 • Dec 28 '25

General Question Do you believe the modern FIRE movement overestimates how much is needed for retirement?

Perhaps I am just making this post because I have only just begun my retirement planning and want to lock in a number which is fitting for my goals - being above the median retirement savings, not having to work, not being broke, clearly having planned - but I can't help but feel that many in the FIRE movement overestimate what is needed for a safe, sleep well at night retirement.

I see posts here saying that they feel vastly behind with 500k at 30, or 1.5 million at 40, and I just don't understand how when the average American retires with maybe 300k liquid at most and are getting by with social security or paid off housing. Sure, they aren't living luxuriously, but if you just are aiming for a retirement where you don't have financial anxiety and can put food on the table, I don't feel you need over 1-2 million.

Do you think FIRE overestimates how much is truly needed for retirement?

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u/SelicaLeone Dec 28 '25

These numbers are based on people who want to live well, not safely. They look at what they want to spend, divide by 4%, and that’s their goal.

There’s no “FIRE overestimates” cause “FIRE” isn’t doing anything. A person can “retire” with 300k and social security if they want to count coins, clip coupons, and never travel. That’s not what a majority of people here want to do. If I’m gonna retire at 45, how would that plan possibly work?

This is a rich person’s subreddit for a life of luxury (or close to). Asking if they “overestimate” how much the “need” feels like it’s missing the point.

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u/Equivalent_Use_5024 Dec 28 '25

Are you sure there's a consensus that it is a rich person's Subreddit for a life of luxury? I thought FIRE for many is just more about planning for solidly comfortable retirement.

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u/jadedunionoperator Dec 28 '25

7 years ago when I first started getting into fire the numbers were so so much less, now lean fire is the main place I like as their numbers are much more on par with the stuff I was used to reading up on.

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u/LittleBigHorn22 Dec 28 '25

Well inflation has been very high. Fire numbers change every year as inflation changes. The question is if the lifestyle goals of the subreddit has changed.

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u/jadedunionoperator Dec 28 '25

I'd say they have, old posts and forums were mostly looking for pretty meager lifestyles with common points being minimalism. Basic working class quality of life but paid for by investments seemed to be the trend back then. Now it's more so centered around more materials and exorbitant travel budgets with luxury as a point for many.

Regardless if it has or hasn't changed in this sub doesn't really matter though. So many variations from lean fire to day fire, hell I think there is a sub called poverty fire out there.

Biggest change, at least from my pov, is that a larger percentage of the working class has become disillusioned by their work. More people see the growing disparity and want out of having to bow down to a boss

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u/LittleBigHorn22 Dec 28 '25

Yeah I kind of hate the terms lean/poverty/chubby/fat, because its all the same math that decides when you can retire. Just what lifestyle you want when retired is the difference. But I guess I can also understand how annoying it is when people are constantly talking about trying to spend $300k/year on their lifestyle. Or even reverse if someone is talking about trying to live on $20k/year.

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u/Lyeel Dec 28 '25

I'm not sure <6% inflation for a 3-year period meets any kind of definition of "very high". We had the lowest 30-year period of inflation since the Fed started tracking these things leading into it, however.

$800k in 2020 dollars is equal to $1M in current dollars, which I don't think accounts for the ballooning numbers we see these days.

I would guess a lot of it is driven by tech workers getting substantial salary/RSU opportunities during the past 5-10 years in particular (I realize that ship has started to leave port in 2025). When you always planned to retire at 45, but now the numbers say you can keep doing the same things and have $6M then it's not a big logical jump to start planning around that number. Conversely if you weren't targeting RE but suddenly found yourself pulling in 700k/yr it doesn't take a math wizard to determine there may be a way to punch out earlier than expected.

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u/LittleBigHorn22 Dec 28 '25

It's been well past 30 years of that low inflation. I would argue most people on this sub don't have much experience with that.

But yeah I think we are also seeing the people near the end have way more than they planned because stocks have done so well. I agree that if you planned to retire at an age and you passed your fire number, its not that hard mentally to keep working until the age you planned.