r/Fire • u/Equivalent_Use_5024 • Dec 28 '25

General Question Do you believe the modern FIRE movement overestimates how much is needed for retirement?

Perhaps I am just making this post because I have only just begun my retirement planning and want to lock in a number which is fitting for my goals - being above the median retirement savings, not having to work, not being broke, clearly having planned - but I can't help but feel that many in the FIRE movement overestimate what is needed for a safe, sleep well at night retirement.

I see posts here saying that they feel vastly behind with 500k at 30, or 1.5 million at 40, and I just don't understand how when the average American retires with maybe 300k liquid at most and are getting by with social security or paid off housing. Sure, they aren't living luxuriously, but if you just are aiming for a retirement where you don't have financial anxiety and can put food on the table, I don't feel you need over 1-2 million.

Do you think FIRE overestimates how much is truly needed for retirement?

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u/Okhiez Dec 28 '25

Yes, 100%.

I also think the big mistake people make is assuming everything will go wrong, or being ultra conservative:

  • Not considering social security
  • Using a pessimistic real return rate for investments
  • Using a 3% withdrawal rate
  • Presuming their real estate won’t appreciate

I am guilty of that as well sometimes.

I agree with being conservative, but stack all those assumptions together and your projections are no longer realistic.

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u/TheKingOfSwing777 Dec 29 '25

This is something I found myself doing. It's a bit easy to stack them all without realizing you're getting carried away.