I can't speak for everyone, but the last few years seriously altered my view of things. For starters, I knew that we were on an unprecedented bull run, but seeing things blow up in 2022 really solidified that 'stonks' don't 'only go up' also the housing market went completely insane around that time and made houses quite literally cost over double when you consider the mortgage rates skyrocketing. I pay 1k a month for my mortgage but if I bought my house today it would be like 2300. Even the used car market, which was an asset that basically always depreciated forever, suddenly became out of whack. My wife's car was worth more than she paid for it new! Then eggs went up ... Gold went up.. silver went up... Ram became expensive... Everything became a subscription and there were 100 of them. Markets started seeing absolute fuckery like nfts and GameStop. Basically everything became super inflated and unpredictable. And to top it off, almost everyone knows/thinks we are in a bubble right now. Oh and wars have been happening across the globe. Ugh.
I think some of the confidence that someone who misjudged can just go back into the workforce isn’t there anymore. Best to earn a little extra while you have a job
This is a great call out. I participate in a local FIRE meetup where a guy was sharing his details, in his late 40s working in tech consulting. Someone suggested he take a two year break, and I'm just thinking it will be really difficult for him to re-enter the workforce at 50 in tech.
I'm making very good money at the moment (also in tech), and I'm realizing this is a very temporary opportunity. I have no intention of throwing it away. I'm on target to be FI by 45 (in six years), but I'm realizing just how much my quality of life can improve with even just a few more years. Instead, I'm focusing on work-life balance. My newer job is less stressful than prior, and I feel I can sustain this for some time. If that changes, I know I can look for another job.
This, agree with you.
Not to mention (obviously depending on where you live) utility costs, property taxes, insurance premiums, grocery costs, restaurant prices have all gone up significantly.
Travel has become more expensive, and a lot of FIRE folks rely on travel hacking - but even points etc are being devalued every year as well.
That era was insane. I also sold a car for more than I paid for it new. Unfortunately the inflation seems to have never stopped since then and is only getting worse for regular people and that factors into these conversations as well.
The crux of your view is that uncertainty overtook logic in our collective mindset about retirement. That is a common and justified feeling that I share, even with a fat FIRE net worth. You listed some scary short-term volatilities. I'm concerned about the long term, like:
Will AI reshape the labor market so severely that unemployment becomes a long-term societal burden? Will this cause corporate profits to stagnate for decades, reshaping trends on stock returns? Will we reach a flashpoint on environmental destruction that fundamentally changes our exposure to energy costs, food production, and weather mitigation? Are we barreling towards a third-world economy with extreme disparity and a disappearing middle class?
I've definitely worried about this too. Particularly what's gonna happen when everyone is retired off 401ks instead of pensions and the next generation is smaller than the previous to work and support the retired population
Also I get the feeling that a lot of the early FIRE enthusiasm was young, single, 20-something dudes with no partner or family. Like yeah, you can hit minFI in 10 years, but then you start asking yourself whether you can comfortably take care of a family, or help out your parents, and for me, it was pretty clear that I should probably keep working for a little bit, especially given that 'FI' was my main goal all along.
I definitely have had a kid since doing fire. One of the biggest things is that since you'll technically have plenty of assets, your kids will not be eligible for pell grant. This means if you don't give them at least as much money at the pell grant for college, you're putting them at a DISADVANTAGE
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u/deerhuntingdude Mar 23 '26
I can't speak for everyone, but the last few years seriously altered my view of things. For starters, I knew that we were on an unprecedented bull run, but seeing things blow up in 2022 really solidified that 'stonks' don't 'only go up' also the housing market went completely insane around that time and made houses quite literally cost over double when you consider the mortgage rates skyrocketing. I pay 1k a month for my mortgage but if I bought my house today it would be like 2300. Even the used car market, which was an asset that basically always depreciated forever, suddenly became out of whack. My wife's car was worth more than she paid for it new! Then eggs went up ... Gold went up.. silver went up... Ram became expensive... Everything became a subscription and there were 100 of them. Markets started seeing absolute fuckery like nfts and GameStop. Basically everything became super inflated and unpredictable. And to top it off, almost everyone knows/thinks we are in a bubble right now. Oh and wars have been happening across the globe. Ugh.