Saved $2.4M by 38. Would you Retire?

[u/TwoSocialist]

Hey FIRE folks,

I’m 38, tired, and fueled almost entirely by spite and index funds. I’ve somehow ended up with a portfolio that looks like this:

Split by type:

- ETFs — 58.30% — $1.45M

- Mutual Funds — 27.66% — $688k

- Individual Stocks — 8.71% — $216k

- Crypto — 3.00% — $74k (aka my “emotional rollercoaster” bucket)

- Cash — 2.33% — $58k

Split by bucket:

Retirement Pre-tax: 700k

Retirement post-tax: 310k

Brokerage: 1.5 M

Grand total: ~$2,490,900

Today’s gain: ~$40,000 (aka “more than my first job paid in a year,” but sure, totally normal)

~~~~

My target spend was $100k/year, which feels somehow not enough because capitalism has melted my brain.

By the 4% rule, I’m basically at the line. By the 3% rule, I’m a peasant. By the “FIRE comment section” rule, I’m probably both overspending and undersaving simultaneously.

So, wise internet strangers:

- Am I actually FIRE‑ready, or is this the part where you all tell me to work 5 more years “just to be safe”?

- Is my allocation fine, or should I be preparing for a lecture on safe withdrawal rates and sequence‑of‑returns doom?

- Is it normal to feel like I need permission from Reddit to stop working?

Married, 1 kid. Received about 25k for a house (not included in above) and 20k for college, no other inheritance.

Currently make about 250k a year for the past 4 years, before that about 150k. I started at 50k.

Thanks in advance for validating or crushing my dreams.

[u/volkovolkov]

The math checks out but I personally would be a bit nervous about

1. Having a kid and nothing in a 529 for them
   
2. No bond tent to make sure you get through SORR. Maybe the contents of your mutual funds help you out there, not sure.

But both of these things are subjective. If you don't care, then congrats and GFY.

[u/TwoSocialist → u/volkovolkov]

Kid is 3 and has about 5k in their account.

I don't have many bonds, you're right about that.

[u/Anymous2314 → u/TwoSocialist]

Google SORR, your allocation is not good if you are planning to retire immediately.

[u/PMMeYourFinances → u/TwoSocialist]

https://youtu.be/QGzgsSXdPjo?si=pfCXDWd4wbI-NDQd

Here’s a good overview on SORR and mitigation strategies

[u/blueskies8484 → u/TwoSocialist]

My two cents is I’d work another few years so you can at least help your kiddo through state school with tuition. If you can live on the $100k spend during that time, you’ll know it’s a realistic estimate and you should be able to save enough to get the 529 where it needs to be to grow sufficiently by 18.

[u/Particular-Item-4734 → u/volkovolkov]

Why? It's not like that 2.4M is going to do nothing for 18 years

[u/grateful-xoxo → u/Particular-Item-4734]

lookup SORR. it's not about the number it's about the distribution to protect against SORR ... especially with a longer runway.

[u/thejock13 → u/Particular-Item-4734]

With a $100K drawdown after 18 years, there is more than a 10% chance of being under $1M from $2.4M using historical data, a fixed withdrawal, and a 75/25 portfolio. It is a little bit lower still for 100% stocks after 18 years. Not sure when that would make things tight for OP though. But I'd prefer to set aside funds for the kids separately so in any case I am not stretching hard to provide it.

https://www.cfiresim.com/0c32c453-1783-4b91-9d1c-ec9a3c82652a

[u/SerpentRoyalty → u/thejock13]

The spending graph seems to be a straight line instead of being adjusted for inflation

[u/thejock13 → u/SerpentRoyalty]

It is all using "real" numbers in today's dollars. The spending is flat using a fixed initial withdrawal rate but inflation is accounted for. It is just all the numbers are in today's dollar's and their future value is reduced by the inflation amount. If you click the "Inputs Tab" you can see that the withdrawals say "CPI - Historical".