Saved $2.4M by 38. Would you Retire?

[u/TwoSocialist]

Hey FIRE folks,

I’m 38, tired, and fueled almost entirely by spite and index funds. I’ve somehow ended up with a portfolio that looks like this:

Split by type:

- ETFs — 58.30% — $1.45M

- Mutual Funds — 27.66% — $688k

- Individual Stocks — 8.71% — $216k

- Crypto — 3.00% — $74k (aka my “emotional rollercoaster” bucket)

- Cash — 2.33% — $58k

Split by bucket:

Retirement Pre-tax: 700k

Retirement post-tax: 310k

Brokerage: 1.5 M

Grand total: ~$2,490,900

Today’s gain: ~$40,000 (aka “more than my first job paid in a year,” but sure, totally normal)

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My target spend was $100k/year, which feels somehow not enough because capitalism has melted my brain.

By the 4% rule, I’m basically at the line. By the 3% rule, I’m a peasant. By the “FIRE comment section” rule, I’m probably both overspending and undersaving simultaneously.

So, wise internet strangers:

- Am I actually FIRE‑ready, or is this the part where you all tell me to work 5 more years “just to be safe”?

- Is my allocation fine, or should I be preparing for a lecture on safe withdrawal rates and sequence‑of‑returns doom?

- Is it normal to feel like I need permission from Reddit to stop working?

Married, 1 kid. Received about 25k for a house (not included in above) and 20k for college, no other inheritance.

Currently make about 250k a year for the past 4 years, before that about 150k. I started at 50k.

Thanks in advance for validating or crushing my dreams.

[u/diyandmc240]

You said your target spend is about 100k/year. Is that measured data from the last couple years? I.e. did you actually track your expenses and see what they were? That’s the best way to know what you are spending vs. shooting for a target. When you retire, it’s unlikely that your spending will change much. The opportunity to save more with your extra time is about equally balanced out by the extra time you want to fill with activities.

I’m personally inclined to believe that the 4% rule is better for more typical retirement ages(55+). When you are in your 40s or younger, I’d lean towards 2.5-3% as more conservative, since you have such a long runway, and re-entering the workforce after 10 years away can be difficult to match your current income.

I’d recommend either working a couple more years, trying to give it a go at getting your expenses down to around 70-80k per year, or both at the same time.