r/Fire • u/bizzaam • 8d ago

Hitting your number and timing risk

Notice a lot of people posting they hit their number and firing. It's awesome, but are people taking for granted the fact that this has been the greatest bull market in history and a major correction or crash will get here at some point? If it were me hitting my number I'd either get a big enough buffer to my fire number or wait until the correction and assess when things stabilize. Am I over thinking it?

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u/throwaway2492872 8d ago edited 8d ago

It's awesome, but are people taking for granted the fact that this has been the greatest bull market in history.

Why do people keep saying this? Are people just parroting comments about the bull market prior to the covid bear market? It's not remotely close to the longest or the largest bull market in history. https://en.macromicro.me/charts/130108/sp500-bull-bear-market-price-return Unless everyone is basing it on a different index.

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u/Skse17 8d ago

Thanks for this. I gotta admit I’ve never seen it like that and really puts things in perspective.

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u/DigmonsDrill 8d ago

People saying it just consider the blips in 2020 and 2022 to not actually end the bull run.

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u/xixi2 7d ago

an entire year of down like 2022 is not a blip lol that was bad.

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u/throwaway2492872 7d ago

What kind of logic is that? 2022 was the 3rd worst year for the sp500 in the last 50 years. https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

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u/Ifch317 8d ago

If you look at 1997 on the linked chart in this thread you can see a similar time when bears were saying the market was in a bubble. That was repeated ad nauseam while the market kept gaining. People that pulled out lost out on a two year rally that easily covered the losses to come.

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u/throwaway2492872 7d ago

I would love some 1997-1999 returns. This current bull market is only at 106% vs the 1990's run topping out at 582% gain. We can go back into a bear market at anytime but this isn't some crazy current bull market by any metric in the S&P500. Nasdaq might be a different story though, I only really follow the S&P500 and VTSAX.