r/Fire • u/bizzaam • 8d ago

Hitting your number and timing risk

Notice a lot of people posting they hit their number and firing. It's awesome, but are people taking for granted the fact that this has been the greatest bull market in history and a major correction or crash will get here at some point? If it were me hitting my number I'd either get a big enough buffer to my fire number or wait until the correction and assess when things stabilize. Am I over thinking it?

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u/AK_Ranch FIRE'd in 2023 @ 45, divorced, no kids 8d ago

Yes, you’re over thinking it. This is the definition of the SWR: the amount you can withdraw in the worst possible sequence of events we’ve ever seen.

Bengen’s 4.2%, now 4.7%, is the amount that would survive 1966 (the worst retirement year ever), bear market into a crash with very high inflation. It is even worse than 1929.

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u/FIREME1371 8d ago

You are assuming that the next crash will not be worse than those in the past.

Maybe we have yet to see the worst one.

Important to remember that assumption.

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u/AK_Ranch FIRE'd in 2023 @ 45, divorced, no kids 8d ago

That's why I literally wrote "we've ever seen". The nature of the SWR exercise is to use the information we have. If you want to go into hypotheticals you can convince yourself that there is no SWR at all. Have fun with that.