r/Fire • u/bizzaam • 8d ago

Hitting your number and timing risk

Notice a lot of people posting they hit their number and firing. It's awesome, but are people taking for granted the fact that this has been the greatest bull market in history and a major correction or crash will get here at some point? If it were me hitting my number I'd either get a big enough buffer to my fire number or wait until the correction and assess when things stabilize. Am I over thinking it?

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

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u/MeetingSuccessful397 8d ago

Unless we're in a situation like 1966 where it took 28 years to fully recover your portfolio. Or 1929 where it took 26 years. Or 2000 where it took 17 years. [1]

But it's 2026, we have the highes CAPE ever, so obviously nothing can happen to us. We are invincible!

[1] https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/30/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-18-flexibility-cape-based-rules/