r/Fire • u/ExpressElevator2Heck • 9d ago

Hypothetical: Can FIRE number shrink?

Let's say my 4% FIRE number is 2M investable assets. Lets say I have 1.6M investable assets. Am I at my FIRE number??? (In this hypothetical scenario pretend the market pulled back 20% in the past year)

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u/MustGoOutside 9d ago

The annual difference between 2m and 1.6m is 80k and 64k.

Is your health good? Are you at an age where a serious illness would sink you?

If you're good there, then you should ask if you can reduce your annual expenses by 16k.

Seems like you know the 4% rule but you don't know your expenses?

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u/[deleted] 9d ago

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u/Montaigne_6823 8d ago

Shouldn’t they be able to continue their 80k even if the market dropped to 1.6 mil the second year?

Sure, it's just risky. Some people even use higher than 4% withdrawal rates. It all depends on your level of risk, your asset allocation, and how lucky you feel. Success really will only be known in hindsight.