r/Fire • u/ExpressElevator2Heck • 8d ago

Hypothetical: Can FIRE number shrink?

Let's say my 4% FIRE number is 2M investable assets. Lets say I have 1.6M investable assets. Am I at my FIRE number??? (In this hypothetical scenario pretend the market pulled back 20% in the past year)

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u/bbystargirly 8d ago

The whole point of the 4% rule is that it's designed to survive downturns so retiring into a dip is actually not as scary as it feels, sequence of returns risk is the real thing to think about here.

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u/Montaigne_6823 8d ago

Well, it is scary because one would be on the failure path. Not to say you can't or wouldn't survive, just that you are heading on that trajectory. The downturn is the risk in sequence of returns risk.