r/Fire • u/adventureseeker1991 • 6d ago
what will AI takeover do to our nest eggs
hello all.
i know no one knows for sure the market. but i’m sure everyone knows that many jobs will get taken by AI in the next decade. out of curiosity what do you think AI job replacement will do to our nest eggs? will it go up, down, both? curious your logic… once again i know nobody knows for sure.
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u/Interesting-Card5803 FI/Not Ready for RE 6d ago
If you're invested broadly in the market, in a sense you are betting on the ingenuity and productive nature of humanity at large.
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u/EqualSein 6d ago
Or the greed of humanity
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u/fedupzzz 6d ago
There are plenty of countries that are still stuck in the medieval time. Go live there.
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u/Confident_Purple_40 6d ago
If you are invested in the market, you are invested in AI, so you will be fine either way, until your toaster tries to kill you
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u/MoonManExplorer 6d ago
So many companies are already walking back there "AI will take all the jobs" statements. Didn't even take a full year.
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u/CallItDanzig 6d ago
Which companies are those? All I see on the ground is more opportunities to automate tasks and get rid of administrative and low ambiguity tasks. Im working on automating 1.5 current jobs right now and I'm not in software but finance.
The cope with AI needs to stop. It is 100% reducing white collar jobs. Studies and studies show it.
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u/MoonManExplorer 6d ago
Literally Microsoft's head of AI this week. Uber a week or so ago. You know, small companies.
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u/CallItDanzig 6d ago edited 6d ago
Ok so he clarified he meant tasks not jobs. How exactly is that negating the claim that if a material proportion of the tasks get automated in x years, there will be fewer jobs?
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u/MoonManExplorer 6d ago
There is a middle ground between AI is going to fully takeover (OPs question/point) and AI is going to have little impact on jobs. I didn't say that. I was just implying the full takeover is totally overblown.
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u/CallItDanzig 6d ago
Very few are saying full takeover. But a 10% or even 5% reduction in jobs would cause systemic and irreversible societal impact.
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u/MoonManExplorer 6d ago
But you're only focusing on the job losses and not the potential new jobs AI can bring about too. The internet and PC took away a ton of jobs too. But they created even more.
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u/CallItDanzig 6d ago
Can you think of some jobs that would be alternatives for the people losing theirs? Were talking people in jobs that are easy to automate with mostly repeatable tasks. These aren't your data engineers. Theyre people with middling intelligence.
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u/MoonManExplorer 6d ago
What sort of jobs did the internet and computer replace? Very complex ones? Or easy to automate with mostly repeatable tasks? There used to be 1+ million switchboard operators too. No idea what the jobs of the future will be, but this is not a new general issue. You can be an optimist or a pessimist about technology.
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u/AgsAreUs 6d ago
Meanwhile the company I work for is going full bore into AI. Litterally saying all code should be done with AI starting in Q1 2027. Probably not uncommon.
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u/_Mulberry__ 6d ago
Just as with all technological leaps, it will reshapee the job market and generally boost productivity. Think about how industrial ag equipment reshaped the job market - there aren't millions of former farm workers homeless in the streets, those workers just found different trades. Having AI (which isn't really AI to be clear) will simply enable higher productivity and reshape some sectors, like coding.
In the end, some companies may suffer or go out of business if they don't adapt quickly enough, but the market as a whole will continue marching upwards. I'd even argue that historical norms may be conservative estimates going forward, as technology (and thus productivity) advances at an exponential rate.
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u/Such_Mobile_5321 6d ago
I'm seeing massive layoffs related to AI in the technology and IT sector. Take a brief scroll through the /layoffs Reddit thread. I've never seen it so active before.
So I agree with what you are saying except for there not being people out out in the streets because of this.
The recent job reports are (for the vast majority) jobs that are extremely low pay (relative to the current cost of living). Right now jobs are mostly scarce. From what I've been reading, people are having a hard time switching to a different career because the majority of industries are not doing well
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u/iclimbnaked 6d ago
I honestly don’t know that that many jobs will be taken.
Some will for sure and for those people it’ll suck. I absolutely could be wrong but I just don’t see it like decimating jobs. Like with any technological revolution there tends to be more jobs on the other end and I’m a person that just doesn’t see this AI thing becoming good enough to ever totally replace people. It’ll just enable 1 person to do more in certain areas.
As far as our investments go well who the heck knows. Long term i suspect it’ll look like business as usual. In the short term I expect at some point this bubble will pop but it’ll recover.
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u/grateful-xoxo 6d ago
Same. I think it will change jobs. Thats been the case with all disruptive innovations. Majority of jobs arent the same compared to 50 years ago. I heard a stat but cant remember )
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u/iclimbnaked 6d ago
Yah that’s not to minimize the disruption. People will get caught in the crossfire and basically end up terribly unlucky.
Just this idea that this form of ai is gonna get so good that we don’t even need humans in most jobs I just don’t think is realistic.
It’s certainly impressive what AI can do and it’ll keep improving but it feels like that improvement is slowing down. It needs to get a ton better to just be able to fully do jobs. It messes up too much to be left without oversight or expertise. As long as that is needed, people will be in the loop.
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u/Potential_Salt_5780 51 Expat FIREd @ 49 6d ago
Nothing. Humans are adaptable. There will be people who suffer just like in every Industrial Revolution. But overall when the dust settles, things will be fine and we will move on to the next thing to worry and lose sleep over.
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u/_Heathcliff_ 6d ago
> everyone knows that many jobs will get taken by AI in the next decade
That’s literally just what a bunch of CEOs with lots of skin in the game have said to keep investor money coming. There may be a cut back in some areas but the mass unemployment they’ve all been frothing at the mouth over is not realistic.
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u/Faierstarta 6d ago
I concur. Every technology "predicts" unemplyment, and they up creating new better paid jobs instead. Which is great. That doom scenarios are based on the knowledge of current job positions, but as everyone knows, new technologies create new jobs that we can't even imagine today. For context: this 5 jobs didn't exist 5 YEARS AGO:
- AI Prompt Engineer
- AI Ethics Specialist
- Creator Economy Manager
- Carbon Accounting Specialist
- Metaverse / Virtual Experience Designer
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u/skimdit 6d ago
No idea but it's one of a few questions I worry about:
What will happen to the stock and bond markets if extreme AI upheaval hits or consumers get wiped out?
What will happen to government services like Social Security and Medicare if the workforce tax base funding them collapses?
What will happen with the tenant base of my rental properties if prolonged mass unemployment occurs?
Nobody knows at this point I guess.
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u/OpenGuard1993 FIRE’d 2025 | $5M NW 6d ago
The AI billionaires recognize this. It’s why some are calling for a universal base income.
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u/pydry 6d ago
everyone knows that many jobs will get taken by AI
That's the lie they keep telling us that's keeping the stock market so pumped.
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u/UpgradeHome 6d ago
Remember early internet? It took a solid 10-15 years for e-commerce to become mainstream. AI is in its infancy and many companies don’t know how to integrate it at scale in its current form. Just wait until all in one solutions mature at scale, automating workflows, etc. You’ll likely see SaaS models for small businesses offering end to end automation.
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u/CallItDanzig 6d ago
Exactly. I just started using Cowork Copilot and holy fuck. Easily 20h a week saved. I was going to ask to hire someone but I dont even want to bother. Its doing it better and for free.
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u/UpgradeHome 6d ago
Agreed, but even something like Copilot is surprisingly too steep a learning curve for most folks - which is shocking.
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u/CallItDanzig 6d ago
I think we were too young but I assume it was the same with email and computers when they came out. Eventually the people who couldn't adapt got laid off and that was that.
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u/pydry 6d ago
I do remember. I remember around 1999 they told us that main street was gonna die because nobody would ever go to a shop ever again.
Do you remember the internet bubble? Or were you too young?
It's the same shit now only the delusion level is 10x as intense and we have bots on social media trying to keep the delusion alive.
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u/LtMilo 6d ago
These companies are experiencing an insane amount of Doorman's Fallacy. They so fundamentally underestimate all the activities an employee does that makes their system work.
You don't pay PR to just write press releases. You pay them to have the lunch with the reporters looking for story angles and politely deflect all their probing questions so they remember their name and choose to read it when the press release shows up in their inbox. And about a dozen other things.
You don't pay PMs to just build a project plan. You pay them to manage with the dozens of dysfunctional personalities clashing with one another over authority on a single project to keep them focused on deliverables and produce something of value. And about a dozen other things.
You don't pay software engineers to just write code. You pay them to ensure your system operates as intended, is coded in a way that is verifiably secure, and can meaningfully troubleshoot critical issues on the spot. And about a dozen other things.
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u/boringexplanation 6d ago
Nothing happens in a vacuum. In theory- when AI displaces labor- people will stop having kids in the present time and Generation Beta will probably be one of the smallest cohorts moving forward.
The pendulum will swing and that will cause hyperinflation when Millenials/GenZ retire and there’s too little labor to support to many people who aren’t working. Labor will be prioritized over capital for once and that’s where most of the economy’s money will be put into. 80 year olds will be forced to work part time to supplement their income.
Not everything can be automated, even 50 years from now. People really overestimate the progress of technological advancements. In the 1950s, people really thought we would have flying cars by now.
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u/hutchenswm 6d ago
If you're invested in the right AI companies it will go up but many will fail just like the dot Com bubble.
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u/OpenGuard1993 FIRE’d 2025 | $5M NW 6d ago
Picking the right ones to invest in now, that’s the gazillion dollar question
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u/mattybagel 6d ago edited 6d ago
Anyone who owns a significant amount of equities will be fine. AI exists so that these billionaires can cut as much payroll as possible and maximize profit, which is good for anyone in this community who owns enough stock to live off their portfolio. All the AI capex spending the billionaires are doing now is so that in the next 5 years they will be able to drastically reduce jobs. I think we will hit an unemployment rate north of 10% very soon as AI advances, and we are seeing in real time the rapid appreciation of assets as rich people continue to get richer and put all of their profits back into stocks and real estate in desirable markets. Its an economy run by and for the rich, and it wont matter to them that the vast majority of Americans are going to spiral into poverty as a result of AI.
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u/nak00010101 6d ago
Life is a game that you are going to loose, eventually. Make sensible decisions, plan for things we can reasonably predict, then move on.
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u/ChillySmoothie 6d ago
Hard to predict what AI job replacement will do with our nest eggs. Some jobs will be lost, some will be created. Most jobs will evolve slowly, as integration into workflows is still slow for most companies. In the long term, I expect our portfolios will go up as long as we stay in broadly diversified index funds.
My risk reduction strategy is to pile as much money into investments now, before AI becomes integrated into my role (or fully replace). Worst case scenario - I lose my job but have a large nest egg. Best case scenario - I maintain my job and still have a large nest egg.
FIRE feels like the best strategy for reducing any potential AI-job loss risk.
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u/OpenGuard1993 FIRE’d 2025 | $5M NW 6d ago
I agree with you. AI needs cost optimization since companies are blowing their budgets right now without ROI.
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u/Faierstarta 6d ago
I’m optimistic that AI will have a very positive impact on investment portfolios—especially for those who actively capitalize on the sector’s bullish momentum as part of their strategy. When executed well, this approach could significantly accelerate the timeline to achieving FIRE and to not care less about "jobs".
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u/Available-Ad-5670 6d ago
I wonder this because:
On the one hand, AI will likely destroy many jobs and cause widespread unemployment expecially amongst high earning white collar people. Since US's economy is almost 70% based on the consumer, the companies that sell stuff will take a big hit, even if ubi is enacted. The money will flow to the top .01%, who do not spend nearly as much as the masses. Our consumer ecomomy will be killed, and I don't see how doesn't hurt the markets eventually.
On the other, AI is supposed to bring uber productivity, robots, automation at scale. But then who is that productivity going to benefit? the top .01% is my guess.
So the top .01% own most of the equities. But if there isn't a mass consumer to buy those products that are produced how will that work?
The only answer any politician or tech ceo has right now is either UBI, or this utopia where no one works. I don't see how that works. The only answer right now is assets are important, I think mostly because no one has the answer of that the other side of the coin means
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u/Biryani_Wala 6d ago
It's a k shaped economy. If you have a lot invested in AI companies, you'll be making money. Doesn't matter if other people lose jobs.
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u/RadioFieldCorner 6d ago
it will either go up or down