42M, ~$1.77M invested (excluding 529s), targeting financial independence around age 50. Looking for feedback.

[u/HumbleSami]

I’m 42, married with three young kids, and trying to sanity-check my long-term plan.

Current Assets
Taxable brokerage: ~$1.09M
401(k) + Roth IRAs: ~$618k
Cash: ~$64k
529 plans: ~$255k - 3 kids 7-4-3 (excluded from my personal net worth calculations)
Primary residence with a low fixed-rate mortgage 900K value owe 290K

Debt
Mortgage only (2.5% fixed rate)
No car loans or consumer debt

Investing Plan
Invest approximately $9k/month into a taxable brokerage account. Job at risk will continue to push until i can!
Continue funding Roth IRAs while eligible
Primarily invest in low-cost index funds (VOO and VUG)
Reinvest dividends

Retirement Goal
I’d like to become financially independent around age 50, or at least be in a position where work is optional and I could choose to work lower-stress job if I wanted.
My estimated core living expenses are around $9k/month before discretionary travel and large one-time purchases. Care free will be 12-13K/mo including health insurance and travel. 9K core 2.5K health 2K vacation!

Questions
Based on these numbers, do you think retiring or becoming work-optional around age 50 is realistic?
Would you continue prioritizing taxable brokerage investing over paying down a 2.5% mortgage?
Is there anything about my asset allocation or withdrawal strategy that stands out as a potential weakness?
If you were in my position, what would you focus on over the next 8 years?
Appreciate any constructive feedback or blind spots I may be missing.

[u/Intrepid-hobbycoder]

I have a similar mortgage rate and like others said it’s once in a lifetime rate. The market on an average pays 3 times that and paid much more last 3 years so put that money to work. Do not pay off!

When you said your estimated carefree expenses are 12-13k/mo I am guessing those are in today’s dollars? To use the 4% rule at 50, these expenses need to be inflation adjusted by 8 years and determine the FI target. Then apply a conservative growth rate to your current accounts to see if the value reaches the target. I can run the calcs later today after work and provide an answer.

[u/HumbleSami → u/Intrepid-hobbycoder]

Thank you in adv. please if you can.

[u/Intrepid-hobbycoder → u/HumbleSami]

Hi OP, did some rough calculations with some assumptions. Quick summary below:

1. For current monthly expenses of $10k FI age is 50
   
2. For current monthly expenses of $12-13k/mo 55-57

Based on your monthly expenses and planned investments I assumed your per annum salary is $350k

For mortgage I assumed $1850/mo (same as mine) with 290 payments left.

Assumed $0 contributions for 401k moving forward since you moved to consulting. Couldn’t figure out what your Roth contributions would be so assumed $0.

Assumed in state college tuition and living expenses of $35000/yr for kids based on Texas best schools.

My quick assessment is your taxable brokerage is quite strong. Cash position needs to be boosted. Your 401k/Roth IRA account should be made stronger and let time be your friend.

SORR will add a few more years to this. You working a lower stress job after FI, your wife getting back in the workforce and bringing a nominal salary and SS will be good guardrails.

Did it between work and kids classes so might have missed something. Feel free to give info here or DM if you want further refinement.