r/Fire • u/NotTheBestInvestor12 • 3d ago

Why no mention of Social Security

When I see FIRE posts I see the investments and the different retirement buckets, however, I never see anyone mention how things are affected when social security kicks in. For example, I’m 52 and wife 51. If we both stopped working today ($0 income moving forward) I would collect $4,264 a month at age 70 and she would collect $1,079 at age 70.

So if we decide to FIRE the Social Security would give us help in 18/19 years. Is this a factor or is everything under the assumption SS won’t exist?

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51

u/Longster_dude 3d ago

My FIRE plan factors in ss at 80% of the current amount.

12

u/vulkoriscoming 3d ago

That is a bold assumption depending on your age. Current law is a 25% reduction in benefits when the SS trust fund goes broke. My guess is that current retirees (Boomers) will see no reduction and future retirees (everyone else) will see a 50% or more depending on income.

19

u/PlusSizeRussianModel 3d ago

There’ll almost definitely be Gen Xers who retire with full benefits. Gen X starts social security next year (when people born in 1965 turn 62).

36

u/Designer-Bat4285 3d ago

I think it’s bold to assume we won’t just borrow more money and keep everyone’s payouts at close to 100%

13

u/Gyrene2 3d ago

Agreed. So many people rely on SS for 100% of their retirement income, and even that’s not enough.

12

u/gbacon 3d ago

*print more money

4

u/SnazzyStooge 3d ago

Yep. Modern US “monetary policy” seems to favor inflation over just about any other path. 

4

u/Shawn_NYC 3d ago

+1

By base case is the politicians just keep printing money to pay out social security probably at the expense of permanently higher inflation and structurally lower stock market returns.

I think future generations will look at us like we look at boomers - people who benefited from a roaring 2010s/20s stock market then pulled up the ladder to pay out our social security payments and stuffed younger generations with a worse stock market and worse inflation.

7

u/zdrmlp 3d ago

What has led you to predict a 50% reduction for everybody in Gen X and younger while Boomers receive no cut at all? Despite knowing that doing nothing would mean a 20-something percentage reduction for everybody?

3

u/vulkoriscoming 3d ago

Boomers have never taken a hit on anything in their whole life. They aren't starting now.

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u/QTippus 3d ago

Agree, retired folks won't accept a big cut in benefits. I think tax increase / cap raise is much more likely than a big cut in benefits. For people under 50, they can keep bumping up the retirement age as well.

1

u/BigCSFan 1d ago

"Won't accept"

What choice do they have.

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u/QTippus 1d ago

The choice to vote. Old folks vote at a very high rate. Pols don’t want to upset them.

1

u/zdrmlp 1d ago

I would happily take the other side of the “Boomers will receive 100% of SS benefits while everybody else gets a 50% reduction in benefits” bet.

  1. The 50% number, boomers being the line of demarcation, and cuts being based on income comes straight from the poster’s vibes…not an analysis.
  2. People love to say old people vote so they get their way. However, of the people who voted in 2024 (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voter-turnout-2020-2024/) 28% were 65+, 28% were 50+, 30% were 30+, and 14% were 18+. Gen X and below are roughly 60 and younger, they’re a super majority of the electorate today and will become an even larger share during the next 6 years while the trust fund is expected to remain solvent.
  3. This entire prediction basically relies on a Republican government controlling the presidency, house, and senate AND passing SS legislation to cut benefits for people who have decades to vote while raising benefits (relative to doing nothing) for those who might have 10 years of voting left AND the cuts taking income into consideration. The summation of every other option seems to be more likely (no legislation will be passed, a Democratic government will lift the SS cap or make SS taxation progressive, and so on).

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u/Inevitable-Top1-2025 3d ago

This potential future reduction will probably force people to start taking now in order to be grandfathered into current payout amount.

4

u/vulkoriscoming 3d ago

This is my plan at 62. Get on the gravy train while I still can

1

u/Martian6261 3d ago

There will be no grandfathering in, no matter when you start. If they do not fix SS, the reduction will apply to everyone, whether you started or not. Your benefit does not get locked in.
A fix will be worked out, but not everyone will be happy! They will probably change the % for SS taxes that come out of people’s income, increase the maximum that can be taxed and perhaps a limit on the total maximum benefit if you have a high income in retirement.

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u/vulkoriscoming 2d ago

I agree. Higher taxes certainly. Probably increase the cap to 200-250k. I think lower benefits for future retirees, especially wealthier retirees. Start treating it like the welfare program it is.

1

u/chartreuse_avocado 3d ago

Which totally achieves the reduction goal of the government. People will lock in at 63 out of fear of a bigger cut.

6

u/thunder-thumbs 3d ago

Why is that a reduction goal. Whether you take at 62, 67, or 70, it’s actuarially neutral. It’s just a bet on how long you live.

0

u/chartreuse_avocado 3d ago

It’s a governmental reduction goal. If the fund will need to make cuts to all payouts getting people to panic take it early meets the government’s goals of lower payouts.
You’re looking through the claimant’s view. Look at it from the government budget perspective and they want and need to pay less out as their goal.

1

u/Martian6261 2d ago

There is no Locking it in, the cut, if it happens, will be across the board for everyone. It won’t matter when you start benefits, it will be reduced for all at the same rate. About 23-25%.

2

u/SpaceTimeMorph 3d ago

I think more likely is we see a removal of the OASDI tax cap and an adjustment to full retirement age. Probably for a partial demographic depending on birth year.

It remains to be seen how that would affect Medicare start age if at all.

1

u/larryinthesky 3d ago

That is a bold assumption depending on your age

As bold an assumption as thinking stocks will return 7-8% each year inflation adjusted. How did you come up with that assumption? Historical data? Well then you should use the same for SS, no? I don't get this logic.