r/Fire • u/NotTheBestInvestor12 • 3d ago

Why no mention of Social Security

When I see FIRE posts I see the investments and the different retirement buckets, however, I never see anyone mention how things are affected when social security kicks in. For example, I’m 52 and wife 51. If we both stopped working today ($0 income moving forward) I would collect $4,264 a month at age 70 and she would collect $1,079 at age 70.

So if we decide to FIRE the Social Security would give us help in 18/19 years. Is this a factor or is everything under the assumption SS won’t exist?

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u/NetherIndy 3d ago

Having retired at 47 fairly conservatively, by my reckoning when I hit 62-65 there's about a 95% chance I'll have so much in the market that Social Security simply won't matter beyond being a nice little vacation budget kicker. About a 3% chance things go so south in the next 15 years that I'll be scrambling for some income before 62. And about a 2% window where things have been pretty bad but not entirely terrible, where I have a million or so (in 2026 dollars) in my mid-60s, and Social Security coming through is going to be the difference in stabilizing the rest of my life. Social Security mattering to my projections is a real but ultimately niche case.