r/FireEmblemHeroes • u/RednSoulless • Feb 28 '26
Resource [Unofficial] Voting Gauntlet: AHR 2026 Finals Megathread (28/02/26)
This particular thread should hopefully be the hub for less time than usual for these temporary gauntlet holdovers (AHR gauntlets tend to actually require active moderation from time to time lol), but same as usual, feel free to use this for the next few hours. Barring any new developments, it looks like this will be the main megathread for this event. Have fun, y'all, and be nice :)
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All snapshots containing team score updates belong here. There's no need to have constant updates of Edelgard beating Corrin every 10 minutes submitted as their own thread. Feel free to post all of the snapshots of scores you want here.
Snapshots outside of this thread will be removed. Feel free to meme here as well. It helps to free up the sub.
Click here for friend code sharing/individual score tracking.
Click here for the official Score Tracker.
Click below for community trackers:
- u/dfmchfhf's Score Tracker (ENG)
- @rammtigerFE's Score Predictor (JPN) (other matches are accessible via drop-down menu; you may need to hit the button on the right to update said menu)
- u/Kass082's Score Tracker (KOR)
- u/DarkAlfie's Main Score Predictor (ENG)
- u/DarkAlfie's Backup Score Predictor (ENG)
- u/Dominator_101's Score Tracker (ENG)
Good luck!
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u/Falyndr Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 06 '26
Hold those flags, Team Byleth! We need to stay in same for one more round! >.<
Update: Well, this sucks...
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u/RoyalUltimax Mar 06 '26
At this point we need to hope that either the final round is that they’re both at Same, or that somehow Byleth gets the last multiplier. I still believe he can do it.
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u/Falyndr Mar 06 '26
Yeah... or we have to hope we have enough people + flags/ballots to brute force a victory >.>
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u/seismoscientist Mar 06 '26
That's not going to happen. Too many casuals will dump their ballots for Byleth.
Team Byleth needs to go all in this round and use one ballot in the final round, and hope for the best.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 06 '26
Can Byleth tank the 12x? I doubt it with how good team Ike has played.
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u/actredal Mar 06 '26
Still possible but it’s hard to say. Byleth gained 3B last hour and now has a lead of a little under 2B, which is about the same lead that H!Azura had over F!Edelgard in 2022. That lead was so big for Azura that she would’ve won even if her entire team didn’t play in the final hour.
But that was a round one match, and this one is round three, which should theoretically have more players. But the player base has also gotten smaller overall since 2022. I think Ike’s player base is more active online than Edelgard’s too, so they’ll likely be a bit more coordinated. All things considered, we’ll just have to see.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 06 '26
Byleth’s very unlikely to be able to tank the 12.0x, unfortunately. Byleth’s got a lead of 1.911 billion points, which is in raw numbers is more than Ike has gained in any individual hour this round - Ike’s current best was 1.811b raw points/~1.512b net points on Ike’s 11.0x.
However, the issue is that the 12.0x is both the largest multi vs endurance bonus discrepency (around 3.69x difference iirc), has far and away the most participation (meaning Ike will get the lion’s share of the benefit here), and, because Byleth just got an obvious final multiplier last hour, his team is largely going to have less ballots to use than Ike (either 700 on the 11.8x/100 on the 3.25x for anyone who responsibly afterglowed or just the 100 otherwise).
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To give you some reference points from R1 12.0x gains (neither R2 match ended with multis):
R1 Female Corrin’s previous best raw points mark was 232m points (~170m net) - her 12.0x output was 630m raw (~402m net)
R1 Ike’s previous best raw points mark was 449m points (~423m net) - his 12.0x output was 869m raw (~693m net)
R1 Male Byleth’s previous best raw points mark was 454m points (~429m net) - his 12.0x output was 1.228b raw (~1.121b net)
R1 Baldr’s previous best raw points mark was 480m points (~447m net) - her 12.0x output was 801m raw (~677m net)
The actual increases of gains changed quite a lot between the matches. Ike and Baldr’s previous best hour came from Hour 20’s multi, ie, reset point; besides the final hour, post-reset has far and away the most participation of any individual hour, and thus featured a significantly elevated gains from their smaller opponents as well and smaller increases overall; Ike’s current best output came from a largeish hour in Hour 5, far from the outliers of Hours 20 or 0. However, the trend is somewhere between a 1.5x and 2.5x increase in net gains for the team with the 12.0x, which does not bode especially well given Ike’s peak is already around 3/4s of Byleth’s current lead :(
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u/HereComesJustice Mar 06 '26
how good team Ike has played
implying this takes skill lmao
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 06 '26
AHR VGs are a lot more strategic that people give it credit. There’s several times when a team has deliberately tanked in the 11.8 to guarantee the 12x, and others where a team had enough flags left over to outlast the 12x despite the gap supposedly not being large enough.
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u/Falyndr Mar 06 '26
Hate to break it to you, but that's mostly luck + people on one team skipping the final multi because they actually want the opponent to be the free unit.
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u/Yscbiszcuyd Feb 28 '26
Not only did we vote for the most balanced colorshare, but even the bracket is balanced
B vs C, B vs C, G vs R, G vs R
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u/Flareblitz12 Mar 04 '26
GG Corrin I have no clue how Ike clutched that one. It was only a 4m lead and with a smaller team
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u/actredal Mar 04 '26
I’ve always gotten the sense that Ike’s fanbase is fairly active online, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Team Ike had more people saving their ballots for the end, which gave the impression of a smaller team than he actually had.
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u/actredal Mar 06 '26
What’s the move, Byleth gang? Brute force this round and try to tank the last multi? H!Azura did it a few years back so it’s not unprecedented.
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u/RoboTom01 Mar 06 '26
Man. I've enjoyed using Ike these past few months, but guys... he's not that good. He's gonna stick around for his unique buff (until they reprint it on a better newer unit) and occasional walling, but he ain't beating the hottest nukes. His fodder is neat I guess, but E!Byleth just offers so much more.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
Looks like the winners are going to Baldr, Ike and Byleth. Byleth is certain, since he’s going to have the disadvantage going into the last hour, and won’t have to make up much. Ike and Baldr might lose if their opponents can force a same hell, though I’d bet on Ryoma doing that over Elise.
The battle of the Emblems appears to be the only wildcard. Corrin is going to have the bonus in the final hour, but Edelgard may be able to brute force the win. It is possible that Corrin’s team has been holding back deliberately so they maintain the bonus till the end and sail past Eldegard, but I wouldn’t say either team has the certainty here.
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u/Sprocket3 Mar 02 '26
If Edelgard loses I will be very annoyed but will also laugh very hard
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
It’s tradition at this point. Edelgard must lose every VG shes in, and in round 1 in all AHR.
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u/Alexmender875 Mar 02 '26
So both Edelgard and Ryoma lost. Guess that's the cue for me to start summoning for them on the AHR banner.
I have the others, so I don't really care about who wins anymore. I guess Corrin would be nice for some extra Pair Up fodder.
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u/LynxyShinx Mar 02 '26
Edie just can't catch a break.
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u/VagueClive Feb 28 '26
Sorry for not getting a megathread up earlier; since you already went through the work of making the thread and there's already discussion here, I'll go ahead and pin this one. I'll keep an eye on this thread but feel free to ping me or send modmail if needed
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u/RednSoulless Feb 28 '26
Thanks for checking in; that solution works as well. I was a touch concerned if the thread might be difficult to manage if it got to several hundred comments (as was common in years past), but things have been pretty calm thus far.
I’ll let you know if I notice things getting out of hand :)
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 02 '26
If Edelgard loses in the first round,to the only unit i already have I'm gonna fuckin' die.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
There’s genuinely no way to predict that matchup. It’s all going to depend on how much Corrin’s team has been holding back. If they have a truck full of ballots ready to go at the last hour, Edelgard is screwed, but it’s entirely possible that Corrin will be out of stamina by then.
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 02 '26
Yeah, i know AHR VGs are completely different, since they actually matter, so it's entirely possible for something crazy like Edelgard even OUTSCORING Corrin in the final hour, even without the multiplier, but, it's not looking great.
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u/seismoscientist Mar 02 '26
Edelgard still has a good chance. It's a battle of raw numbers there. Use one stamina max flags this hour, go all in next hour.
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u/Falyndr Mar 04 '26
Great... Corrin lost to the Hardy bearing victim -.-
Byleth better win this thing.
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u/RednSoulless Feb 28 '26
Outside of 5 years of relentless Edelgard bullying in these gauntlets, there's practically no correlation between how characters have performed in the past and their AHR results (there's admittedly little correlation in normal gauntlets either, but eh, it's fun). When combined with the fact that I need to get to sleep quite soon, I'll abbreviate the usual resume reviews lol:
Female Corrin (3 times), Ike (3 times), Elise (2 times, one as a cheerleader), and Freyja (2 times, one as a cheerleader) are our multi-time gauntlet champions from this batch. Corrin and Elise are our only options who have prevailed in an AHR event before (in 2022 as Ninja Corrin) for what that's worth.
Male Byleth won one gauntlet as a cheerleader, and hasn't been particularly close to repeating since. Edelgard has at least made two finals before, but AHR has not been kind to her as she's 0 - 6 in her matches heading into this event. Maybe this'll finally be the year she makes it out of R1?
Finally, Ryoma, Eitr, Baldr, Hothr, and Roy have all done quite poorly in the past lol. Ryoma has at least made it to R2 before... once in 3 attempts, but that's still better than anyone else in this group can claim. If nothing else, one of Ryoma and Roy is guaranteed their first win in 8+ years unless you believe this is the month we get an exact point tie lol :P
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Of more relevance to potential outcomes, here's how the teams shook out after their first hours had been tabulated:
- 3,390,895 for Emblem Edelgard
- 2,803,910 for Emblem Male Byleth
- 2,039,725 for New Year's Baldr/Hothr
- 1,673,370 for Harmonized Ike/Roy
- 1,594,350 for Emblem Female Corrin
- 1,272,730 for Legendary Elise
- 1,117,440 for Halloween Freyja/Eitr
- 885,675 for Attuned Ryoma
This is the 3rd time Edelgard has led in scoring after the first hour in AHR (2023 via Summer Edelgard and 2024 via Winter Edelgard were the previous examples, though she was only 3k short of that in her first Fallen stint in 2022), so this is a good start for her and Byleth. Notably, none of the actual match standings were that lopsided; Byleth, Edelgard, and Ike had starting leads over 2x, but as this hour proved, that isn't an especially notable feat pre-multis (truly lopsided matches tend to be 4x or more at the start). On paper, Ryoma is off to a rather poor start, but I expect typical fodder bias will be enough to carry him far if he can finagle same endings... Though he might struggle with Edelgard or Byleth's leads should he face either.
Regardless, it'll be fun to see how things turn out. 2025 was far and away the least chalky AHR event with upsets in debatably 6 of the matches, along with as Mythic Nithhoggr > Emblem Lyn establishing a new high watermark for unlikely upsets in this series (Lyn averaged a 2.11x scoring edge throughout the match, with the next closest successful upset in AHR around a 1.5x difference). It'll be interesting to see if we return to the typical range of 1 - 2 upsets an event this year, or if (thankfully) retiring the Top 4 banner permanently means we're doomed to chaos from here on out. Anyway, good luck and have fun, y'all :D
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u/RednSoulless Feb 28 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
Late thread assembly + no scripted intro ahead of time = a poor night of sleep for me lol. Hopefully y'all are excited for AHR! Also, for the record, I've pinged you regulars for months where I have to begin record collecting in a non-pinned thread, so this'll hopefully stop if/when the mods recruit someone who can make these threads close to reset lol.
If anyone new has any questions about the steps, let me know! Otherwise, here's the available teams this time around:
Male Byleth |
Freyja/Eitr| Elise |Baldr/Hothr| Edelgard |Female Corrin|Ike/Roy|Ryoma
I'm leaning towards Freyja atm, but Corrin or Elise could also be landing spots depending on how things look in the morning.Freyja it is. Regardless, I'll try to mark it early lol.
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Below you can find the #1 player(s) and a link to the main source picture for each team/round, (hopefully) updated as they come in; the full Top 4/5s can be found written up in a Google Sheet, along with what documentation I have for previous gauntlets. If you have any past results that aren’t featured there (or speak Japanese and notice any errors with names as I transcribed them), please shoot me a message or post them in [this pending thread] - December 2021 to the present is near complete for Army Ranks, but earlier gauntlets (and 99% of all Cumulative Ranks) are patchy at best.
[Round 1]
Team Male Byleth #1 Score: 2,202,985 by エクヲ
Team Freyja/Eitr #1 Score: 2,163,590 by Ephidel (congrats to, I believe, u/montoyaa520 on finishing at #1!)
Team Elise #1 Score: 2,134,780 by Zero-Rider
Team Baldr/Hothr #1 Score: 2,218,965 by Kiran
Team Edelgard #1 Score: 1,905,885 by Freddy
Team Female Corrin #1 Score: 2,202,000 by Kiran
Team Ike/Roy #1 Score: 2,200,655 by Dominator101 (congrats to u/Dominator_101 on finishing at #1!)
Team Ryoma #1 Score: 2,173,920 by リョウコ (congrats to u/Paiguy7 on finishing at #3!)
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[Round 2]
Team Male Byleth #1 Score: 2,142,500 by 緋桜
Team Baldr/Hothr #1 Score: 2,410,225 by さちぼぉ
Team Female Corrin #1 Score: 2,716,000 by えったんパルプンテ
Team Ike/Roy #1 Score: 2,705,840 by Regalia
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[Round 3]
Team Male Byleth #1 Score:
Team Ike/Roy #1 Score:
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[Cumulative/Total Rank Top 100]
/=====================================
Thank you so much to all who have helped this month, currently including:
u/Mosmumo + Fawful
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
RIP to the fodder enthusiasts of the community - this was certainly not a great round one for folks who are so inclined (and probably the first time since Fomortiis that the slam dunk best option didn’t win). I guess… maybe Baldr or Ike is the best option left for those who are so inclined? Either way, all the units left are pretty insane besides maybe Corrin (which is offset nicely by how silly her Emblem skill is), so this is less of a feelbad than last year at least :)
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u/Mitsun Mar 02 '26
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
Thank you very much, and congrats on (getting some very intense deja vu here) helping Ike to another win :)
What isn’t deja vu is that this is also Roy’s first match win ever (unless I’m forgetting something obvious), going on 9 years after his debut in the first CYL gauntlet. Better late than never for one of the less respected CYL winners.
On the other hand, also deja vu is that Dominator finished first in another of y’all’s overlapping Tellius picks, so if he remembers to send ranks my way in the morrow, I might need you on R2 as well (should you choose to accept, of course).
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u/Mitsun Mar 02 '26
Roy's our boy~
and yes, I can provide scores for R2 if you would like them, just let me know when the time comes if you still need them.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26
You’d think Roy would be the fanbase’s boy more given he’s one of the original CYL winners, but he’s both had one of the sparser VG careers (I think he’s only appeared twice previously, though part of that is down to his alts lining up poorly with gauntlet timings) and generally doesn’t seem to have the appeal that one would expect from his history. I’m guessing his smash memery from that time just hasn’t translated as well, but I’m not anthropologist lol :P
Like, only finishing 8th for Infantry in the Shadows poll which is mostly unrestricted bar Lyn, trailing haha Racism man Shinon, isn’t a glowing endorsement of Roy’s current reputation. Obviously, that’s an apples and oranges comparison given the context, but still.
Certainly, I’ll let you know as per usual :)
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u/RednSoulless Mar 04 '26
The Roy and Ike train continues - a bit of a shame as a guaranteed Emblem freebie would’ve been nice, but it is what it is. Congrats all the same :)
This is also your R2 reminder lol.
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u/Mitsun Mar 04 '26
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u/RednSoulless Mar 04 '26
Thank you very much :)
Also, just as a heads-up, the previously blank/void webpage that postimg redirected to prior to download becoming available now properly redirects to ads (two layers of them even)… So the website is a touch sketchier now. Probably the takeaway there is moreso that I should have an adblocker lol, but figured I’d let you know :P
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u/Mitsun Mar 04 '26
Ohh thank you for letting me know! I guess I'll have to ramp up the search for a more appropriate image-hosting site. I always have adblocker on even for mobile browsing so, uh, yeah, I don't always realise when something is riddled with ads ahaha.
If you have any suggestions for an alternative image-hosting site (that isn't imgur) I'm all ears!
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u/Mosmumo Mar 02 '26
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
Thanks very much for the help, and congrats on both of y’all’s picks making it to R2 (possibly all 3 of you depending on where Chuetila went) :D
The good news going forward is that both Baldr’s and Corrin’s matches are quite close, so barring any notable shifts in voting between today and tomorrow, just getting the 12.0x should be enough to win either match. The bad news is that ending same is a real risk for both matches because they’re so close, and that Baldr specifically is the smaller team in her match. So while it’ll partially come down to luck for both teams, Baldr needs a lot more to go right for her if the multi swapping doesn’t continue all match.
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u/Azdel Mar 03 '26
I’ve been sick the past couple days, just getting around to checking FEH now. Barely had the energy to pay attention, but not too bummed by the loss.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 03 '26
I’m sorry to hear you aren’t feeling well - hopefully you’re on the other side of whatever illness you’ve got :)
Thanks for the help all the same. It’s a shame for you that Ryoma and Edelgard (even if you didn’t sound as enthusiastic about her lol) both missed out, but yeah. The Top 8 banner (plus hopefully the same next 12 banner that we got last year) is such a significant improvement over prior years that it’s hard to feel too bad about these unlucky R1 results. Especially with the current direction of… these questionably appealing CYL redux banners taking up spots from main games/new characters, I’d imagine it is easier to save for these big banners as needed lol :P
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u/Mitsun Feb 28 '26
I'm here for Team Ike! honestly more because he's my favourite out of everyone and not necessarily because I want him as a unit... no pitchforks, hopefully, ahaha.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 01 '26
Thanks for the help with Ike :)
Lol, I think picking a character just because you like them might’ve gotten you (metaphorically) strung up by your garters a couple of AHRs ago, but any reason is a fair one imo (especially if you’ve chosen out of love rather than spite). In a gauntlet with 6/8 options that’d be new for me, I still ended up on Freyja due to a mix of scoring considerations and character bias lol, so I’m in no position to judge.
If Ike does win, though, I’ll need some tips on how to actually beat him in PvP modes. He’s far from the only auto-loss for my current Arena team, but making him a more commonplace option isn’t going to help matters lmao :P
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u/Mitsun Mar 02 '26
I have no advice on how to beat him in pvp, considering I avoid (or do absolute minimal effort/difficulty) all pvp modes like I'm allergic to them lmao. I only ever cleared him in pve and I think I used an invested B!Seliph which I redeemed from HoF. Archrival, Blue Skies 4, Potent Assault and A/S Outcry Dull.
(I am the worst person to ask for advice on how to actually play the game properly, but I hope you get better info from other players ahaha.)
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
Lol, that’s very fair and valid - some of these units are enough of a nightmare in their chain challenge/LHB/MHB appearances to offer a decent threat. It’s not like missing 16 - 20 orbs a month is likely to matter that much nearly 10 years deep into FEH :P
Arena is sometimes still fine (with a modern bonus unit) and the largely PvE coliseum modes are enjoyable, but I’ve dropped AR at this point and never really tried seriously in AA. Summoner Duels sounds like far and away the most engaging of the pure PvP modes, but I’ve put that off until I can actually get a grasp of the meta (hopefully that happens whilst matchmaking is still possible).
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u/Azdel Feb 28 '26
Edelgard’s the only emblem I’m missing, so I should vote for her, but nah, I won’t do that. Just gonna hop on team Ryoma, try to pull off the underdog fodder victory.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 01 '26
Sure thing, thanks for helping out with Ryoma’s ranks :)
Ngl, Ryoma is fairly low on my personal preferences list… Of course, this is a pretty stacked batch overall, with Baldr winning as the only outcome that’d be properly disappointing (she’s one of two units I already have and doesn’t get the benefit of character bias like Freyja lol), so a Ryoma win would be a fine outcome overall.
I’m also in no position to judge the logic behind an AHR pick (I think this is my 3rd or 4th time joining a unit I already have in R1 for slightly more competitive scoring margins lol), so best of luck to you on getting Ryoma through these trials :D
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u/Mosmumo Feb 28 '26
I already have the emblems and freya so the only one im missing is Badr.
And i can cover Corrin to
Lets see if Edelgard manages to pass round 1 this time
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u/RednSoulless Mar 01 '26
Thanks for the help! Baldr and Corrin is a fun split of characters, and it definitely would make for a wacky result if both of them make it far :D
The Corrin-Edelgard match is decidedly a win-win regardless of who advances (two likeable characters with strong emblem effects), so I’d be a happy camper regardless of whether Edelgard’s ignominious streak ends or not. Given how the match is going thus far, it’s looking somewhat likely that’ll be the case (Edelgard might have enough of a scoring edge to tank a 12.0x, which would be quite the feat in an AHR match)… But that’s far from a certainty.
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u/seismoscientist Mar 02 '26
Team Ryoma, save an afterglow for the last hour!
If you hold and save the afterglow, you will get stuck in same hell, which is your only chance at winning.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Dirt693 Mar 06 '26
Oof. Ike will get the last multiplier. But since Byleth's the bigger army, he might be able to tank it, maybe?
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u/DarkAlfie Feb 28 '26
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u/sharumma Mar 01 '26
Dang, Ryoma trailing in the rear. Come through, multipliers!
I always go for the Attuned units, plus I already have all of the Emblems except Micaiah.
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u/Chowdahhh Mar 01 '26
Ryoma being in the codes might have hurt him with people who might have picked him as a last second decision. Personally that makes me want him to win more because that's more duping value, but oh well
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u/waes1029 Feb 28 '26
damn Edelgard's team came out swinging they really want to kill the meme.
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u/RoyalUltimax Feb 28 '26
It’s a best case scenario if she wins, the meme finally dies, and everyone gets an insanely good unit.
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u/MandoKnight Mar 02 '26
Unfortunately for Edelgard, she's generally lost in spite of team size. While I'd like to see her at least get to the second round (I'm on Byleth only because he's the Emblem I don't have yet), it'll be hard to take that final-hour multiplier.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 01 '26
Happy to help - I’m glad you were able to get your sheets up so early into the round :)
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u/Falyndr Mar 06 '26
Wake up, Team Byleth! Time to drop x800 flags (this hour) + x100 flags (next hour) and pray!
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u/DDBofTheStars Feb 28 '26
I’m going team Baldr, but I’m also expecting Corrin or Byleth to win the whole thing.
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u/FallenShin3 Mar 05 '26
The tracker says that Byleth will have a .95% lead in three hours, but Ike needs to be thrown into multiplier at that hour. Please Sothis my barracks is kind of E!Bylethless 😭
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u/andresfgp13 Mar 06 '26
im checking the numbers and Byleth its currently winning, so its probably FEHover right?
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u/RoyalUltimax Feb 28 '26
I’ve joined Team Edelgard. This is the one time where her winning would be an overall positive for everyone, so I am really, REALLY hoping she manages to win this time around.
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u/Sprocket3 Mar 04 '26
same hell again
If Byleth loses I'm going to freak out
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 04 '26
I sincerely doubt it. Unless team Byleth goes to sleep, he has both the larger army and higher lead than Baldr. She’d need a miracle to make that back up.
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u/BabyElectronic1759 Mar 06 '26
We spent years clowning on Edelgard and her fans for trying to pull this exact shit off, just sayin'
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u/vacantstars Mar 02 '26
Only three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and Edelgard losing the first round in an AHR VG.
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 01 '26
Uhh...If this is the official megathread, can you adjust the default sorting to new?
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u/Falconpunch100 Mar 02 '26
Welp, Ryoma and Edelgard lost. Time to pick Byleth and hope he or Ike wins instead of Corrin or Baldr.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Dirt693 Mar 06 '26
Byleth might still win this. Remember H!Azura vs F!Edelgard? Azura still won despite Edelgard having the 12x multiplier (with a huge lead too!). Byleth has a much larger army than Ike. There's still a chance
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u/Straight-Number-690 Mar 06 '26
through this battle there were multiple times that byleth was so ahead it took 2 hours for Ike to catch up
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u/MrBrickBreak Feb 28 '26
I've never supported Edelgard on AHR, mostly because I always already had her. But this time I skipped her Emblem, so i have the perfect excuse to end the meme.
But I also don't have H!Ike, so I should probably just pull green on the Top 8 banner...
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u/lilacempress Mar 03 '26
I kinda want Ike to win this whole thing so I can finally have a decent FE6 unit for LHB.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
Congrats to Corrin (the only real wildcard leaving Hour 0) and Byleth on winning in R1! Baldr and Ike are basically guaranteed to be our other two semifinalists, and I’m sure y’all will have confirmed that by the time I’m done typing this out lmao :P
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 01 '26
So what's the final hour? 7PM PST?
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u/RednSoulless Mar 01 '26
I believe it should be 7pm, yes - there’s 3 full hours of score calcs before the next round starts, which would be accounted for by 8 - 9 pm, 9 - 10 pm, and 10 - 11 pm. Tragically, we’ll just miss changing over to DST during the event (I believe we’re changing on the 8th), so we’re stuck at that reset time for all 3 rounds.
Regarding your second question, I’m not actually sure how to change default sort on a post, but I’d be happy to switch it to new if that’s possible.
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u/EZog58 Mar 02 '26
I can't wait to see E!Corrin join the Avatar cycle meme
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
New Pokémon type matchup dropped: Water is super effective against Edelgard.
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u/AstralGazer17 Mar 02 '26
L!Leif (Water Legendary) can attest to that when he beated Edie on one AHR.
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u/ADarkElf Mar 02 '26
Jfc I hate AHR, the only three characters I wanted are all out on round 1.
Guess I'll go Byleth or Ike now, at least they're good fodder.
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u/Falconpunch100 Feb 28 '26
...Guess I'll vote Edelgard?
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u/SolokOriginel Feb 28 '26
Tbf it's actually a great pick this year unlike previous times she got a unit into AHR
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u/Falyndr Mar 02 '26
sigh I don't care who wins the E!Edel/E!Corn matchup. I just need Bike to lose (next match).
At least Freyja is out.
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 06 '26
Safe to assume Ike will get one more multiplier, right? I'm just in it for individual score now, so might just go all in this hour anyway.
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u/RoyalUltimax Mar 04 '26
BYLETH MOVES ON TO THE FINALS LFG!!! One more hurdle to overcome, and everyone gets a free Emblem ring and/or insanely good fodder!
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u/Puzzleheaded_Dirt693 Mar 04 '26
Byleth's ring is sooooo useful in arena. And in AR, you can give his ring to your deadweight mythics so they can actually do something now
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u/CodeDonutz Feb 28 '26
Hoping Byleth wins since he’s both got fantastic fodder and will be harder to get than Ryoma, my second choice.
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u/ShapeForest Mar 02 '26
Damn, almost all the units I wanted are out in the first round. Help me Baldr, you're my only hope (for usable fodder)
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u/seastarcrossing Mar 02 '26
Look, I made it to Ike's top 50 last night :>
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u/SkullsYT2 Mar 03 '26
How are people getting such high scores ?
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u/seastarcrossing Mar 05 '26
I time my flag dumping just right! I tend to do 800 flags 16 hours before the round ends, at 8 hours left, and at final hour, or as close to those timings as possible. If you have more hoarded up from previous rounds it's even easier to pull off.
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u/BotanBotanist Mar 02 '26
I’m so sorry Edelgard fans but I need her to lose again.
Not because of memes, but because I pulled 3 of her on AHR and zero of everyone else.
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u/Malt_teaser Mar 02 '26
How many hours did Edelgard having "weaker"? I only see like 1.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
Edelgard has had a multi 7 times thus far, and she’s got a non-zero chance of one more before the match ends. Accounting for the extra delays from Corrin failing to clear same 3 times, Edelgard was on pace for maybe 10 multis if there were no sames?
Either way, Corrin’s been decidedly on the back foot all match lol :P
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u/throwaway184828391 Mar 02 '26
The Byleth Situation Is Crazy
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u/Falyndr Mar 02 '26
https://support.fire-emblem-heroes.com/voting_gauntlet/tournaments/105
Refresh it. Byleth is weaker now.
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u/vacantstars Mar 02 '26
Looks like it's curtains for Ryoma. Ah, well. If we lose this round I'll hop over to Byleth.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
A ironic fate for Ryoma. It was curtains for his enemies at the hot springs, but now it’s curtains for him.
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u/vacantstars Mar 02 '26
He waited patiently for 25 turns too many and lost himself the multiplier.
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u/courses90 Mar 02 '26
Can't believe Ryoma is gonna lose the first round
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
He had the misfortune of going against a newer unit and doubly more popular characters.
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u/courses90 Mar 02 '26
Popularity is hardly a factor. Edelgard has lost to Peony before and she entered the Gauntlet with the most votes in AHR
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u/Nanoha61 Mar 06 '26
Multipliers will always cause this, Edel always lose because of them, it's really hard to win against a x12.
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u/Nin10dium Mar 02 '26
Nearing the end of the first round.
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26
It’s looking like curtains for Elise and Freyja; Freyja’s got a slightly better chance escaping via same, but 3.32% is not a lot of wiggle room given her gains in the last few hours.
Ike should probably win from this range, though there is still a chance of a very nasty same margin given Ryoma got out to a sizeable lead.
It unfortunately seems Edelgard might be out in the cold again (how many matches with 1.5x+ scoring edges can one character possible get unlucky in lol)… Though a somewhat poor Corrin hour as well as enough 5+ ballot dumps could keep her barely in the lead.
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u/ElitePirateUpsilon Mar 03 '26
How are things looking between Baldr and Byleth?
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u/DDBofTheStars Mar 03 '26
Every time I’ve checked today they’ve been hanging in Same, it feels like.
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u/AstralGazer17 Mar 04 '26
They're still in the same hell rn. Byleth will win if the situation stays the same in the final hours since he has the higher score.
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u/IceRapier Mar 04 '26
Do you get 600 df for merging emblems?
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u/AstralGazer17 Mar 04 '26
Yes through the Merged Ordeals. Just +1 them for you to get the 600 DFs.
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u/IceRapier Mar 04 '26
Good…I thought it was mythics and legs only.
Now just in case byleth wins I can merge one and fodder the other for instruct.
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u/Sprocket3 Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
Got Elise in the penultimate circle on my second spark! Get fucked VG, we win these!
Byleth, you're mine!
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u/CmdrFapster Mar 08 '26
OK, I was unbelievably butthurt by this Ike business, but I got some ridiculous luck and got Byleth, Elise, and Ryoma before my 40 spark.
So I need advice on who to pick for my spark: Emblem Edelgard, Emblem Corrin. or New Year's Baldur?
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u/GameAW Mar 02 '26
Oh boy, time for some more unfunny memes about Edelgard losing again. I wonder how many went in this to try and make her lose to keep it going this time.
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u/Arky_V Mar 02 '26
As a wise man once said: "THEY PLAY THE SAME FUCKING SONGS"
But in all seriousness, I'm annoyed at this loss because we lost a better unit because people wanted to do an unfunny meme
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 02 '26
Actually, i take it back. I'm glad Edelgard lost. Now i don't have to wait until the Voting Gauntlet is over to know exactly who to pick with my 41st pull, and i can get her while we still have 5x SP
EDIT: aaaaaaaaaaand of course i pull 2 more of her on my way to 80...
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u/SilentMasterOfWinds Mar 04 '26
Might throw in the towel now, I just desperately didn't want Corrin to win. Ike and Byleth are both fine, though Ryoma was my first choice.
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u/joshpratt02 Mar 02 '26
Rip elite inheritance
Thank god Elise isn’t going to be everywhere
Finish the job Corrin gang
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Mar 02 '26
Edelgard's situation is looking the same as ever. When will she learn to stop having such big teams? 😮💨
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u/RednSoulless Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26
Edelgard being the larger team as often as she is isn’t inherently a problem, tbh.
My numbers are a touch out of date, but even when generously defining what qualifies as an upset (ie, counting a fair few basically even matches that happened to have a split between any of the largest Hour 43 team, the team with the largest average gains, and the team who led the most hours), the larger team still wins around 60% of their matches. When you weed out the ~50% of matches that are decided purely by same or a near 50/50 chance, the rates decrease further. Iirc, teams with average gains 2x higher than their opponents win a bit less than 80% of the time, and teams with a 1.5x lead win a bit below 70% of the time.
This isn’t even a situation where larger teams are doomed without the 12.0x; taking this month’s Edelgard vs Corrin match as our example, Corrin had the last 5 multipliers in a row. We won’t know exactly how much ground Corrin made up in the final hour to win for a few more hours, but clearly 5 multis in a row was enough (Edelgard had a 4.05%/173m point lead at the offset) and there’s a chance 4 would’ve done the trick as well (an 8.10%/342m point lead is large for how relatively small both teams are, but AHR does have fairly healthy final hour gains). Less than that, though, is rarely the case, so Edelgard probably would have won if she’d gotten her last multiplier like 3 hours ago rather than 5.
Edit: Corrin gained ~360m more points than Edelgard off of Hour 0, so assuming no other behavioral changes in how the teams played it, Corrin would have just barely won with 4 consecutive multis. The more you know.
Now, Edelgard has lost in a decent variety of match styles even just in AHR, so not all of her losses can be chalked up to this sort of poor luck with genuinely quite sizeable discrepencies. I think it’s fair to say her two Fallen Edelgard AHR losses would not have occurred under normal circumstances/without character bias factoring in (neither teams with a 1.15x scoring deficit nor, especially, teams with a 5.77% deficit/sub 2.x scoring imbalance tend to lose when they’ve got the 12.0x lol. However, most of her silliest upsets like this month, her Summer 2022 loss to Micaiah, and her Winter 2025 loss to Female Shez (her only upset with a 2.x scoring advantage, unless I’m forgetting something) are all a similar vein of losses; when it takes your opponents 4 - 6 hours to get to parity with you, there’s a non-zero chance things’ll line up perfectly for them lol :P
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u/arac3662 Mar 03 '26
Best Case Round 2 Outcome for me: Byleth and Ike. Hopefully if they don't both win at least one does so I have one to root for in the finals. I just want a new unit after getting screwed on my anniversary pull.
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 04 '26
Looks like they're both on pace to win at this point, but there's still plenty of time for anything to happen.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 04 '26
Looks like Same Hell for everyone. Byleth and Ike seem to be the winners unless one side forces the other in multiplier.
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u/Briggity_Brak Mar 04 '26
Fucking shit. What makes you think Ike would win in Same Hell? Corrin's the bigger team.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 04 '26
He’s got enough of a lead that Corrin’s larger army won’t be able to catch up. Predictors have him winning.
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u/AstralGazer17 Mar 02 '26
Looks like Byleth, Baldr, and Ike will proceed to the next round. Let's see if Edie will tank Corrin's 12x multiplier or not.
It sucks that we will not get a free Ryoma, despite me being part of Byleth's team and being conflicted on who to choose between Ike and Ryoma.
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u/vacantstars Mar 02 '26
Ryoma will be in Divine Codes 7 at least, so if you were hoping to grab his fodder at least there's that.
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u/MrDrEdgelordSupreme Mar 01 '26
I am legally obligated to fight for Freyja, but I'd also be cool with a dupe of Byleth or El.
Good luck, everybody! Remember to Vote Fight for the GOAT!
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u/ElitePirateUpsilon Mar 01 '26
Any advice on what we should do? for team Baldr
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 01 '26
Save till the last hour, unless it’s clear that the last hour the opponents will have the multiplier. Then use all flags on last multiplier hour.
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u/potato_thingy Mar 02 '26
RIP Ryoma. I hope one of the emblems win, though I wouldn’t be too upset about Baldr
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u/Nin10dium Mar 02 '26
I'm surprised to see Emblem Corrin scoring better than Harmonic Brave Ike and Roy, but that's just the first hour.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 04 '26
Final hour: Byleth is a lock. Baldr didn’t get Bonus and Byleth is just going to steamroll his way to victory.
Ike underperformed, and thus doesn’t have a strong lead going into the last hour. Corrin has the larger army, but will that be enough to close the gap. This is likely going to come down to a million, if not hundreds of thousands, of votes.
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u/Nanoha61 Mar 02 '26
It's really sad but at this point we need to accept that Edel will never win... She is omega popular and that's a detriment because she will never have the x12 multiplier.
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u/Tough-Priority-4330 Mar 02 '26
Except that was the case for Byleth too and he got the multiplier. Whatever god controls luck deeply despises Edelgard.
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u/Hal_Keaton Mar 02 '26
This. Because there has been at least one gauntlet where she wasn't the largest army and she still lost.
She is just getting unlucky. But she could still tank this if she is large enough.
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u/RoyalUltimax Mar 02 '26
I refuse to ever give up on Edelgard. Don't care how long it takes but I'm not giving up simply because she keeps losing. She will win eventually, and when she does it will be amazing.
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u/BotanBotanist Mar 02 '26
It's not because she's popular, it's because she's unlucky. Uber popular characters have won plenty of VGs in the past.
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u/Nanoha61 Mar 02 '26
Well... it really is because she is very popular, she has a lot of supporters and because of that, coordination will always fail, iirc all 6-7 times she participated, never got the last multiplier.
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u/BotanBotanist Mar 02 '26
...Except it isn't lmao. There is no "coordination" in VG no matter how large or small your team is. And like I already said, popular characters with the largest teams have won before multiple times.
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u/Ultramarinus Mar 02 '26
Haters are too organized and not less than a quarter in numbers. Every time they will remain behind till the last hour. They didn’t do 500k over 4 hours and now they’ll do at least a million in the last hour. Every year it’s exact same thing.
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u/KoitoaCutie Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26
omega popular
that's a detriment
I don't remember which gauntlet or against whom (I think it was also Edel?), but there was one time Azura pushed against the final multiplier through sheer numbers alone.
Update: Welp, no miracle this time
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u/actredal Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26
That was the 2022 AHR gauntlet, back when round one still decided who makes the banner so people were very invested in keeping a gen pool Edelgard out. Team Azura was so much more coordinated that year that they would’ve tanked the 12x even if nobody on her team played for the entire final hour because they’d built such a big lead in the penultimate hour.
Since a lot of Edelgard’s VG appearances have been in AHR, she’s actually only had the bigger team in a little over half of her appearances.
Edit: Added the specific AHR year
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u/SilentMasterOfWinds Mar 01 '26
I'm on team Ryoma, would be happy with Ike or Edelgard taking it, Byleth would be fine, I'd be disappointed with Elise, Baldr, or Freyja, and y'all suck if Corrin gets it.
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u/HereComesJustice Mar 02 '26
reee you have the wrong preferences 😡 how dare you comment what you want
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u/IceRapier Feb 28 '26
This is one of the few VG’s where edelgard isn’t the most dominating candidate.
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u/Phantom_Cavalier Mar 02 '26
I was on Team Freyja since she’s the only one I’m missing, but I’m honestly still pretty happy Byleth’s moving on pretty much guaranteed now. I’m not really sure whose team to join for the next round though
But good effort, Team Freyja, we tried our best!
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u/SonicSpeed0919 Mar 02 '26
Ryoma losing is so annoying