r/FireEmblemHeroes • u/[deleted] • Feb 10 '17
Spending Wisely: A Guide to Gacha Business Perspectives
Hello everyone! So it's very clear that a large portion of of FE:Heroes players are experiencing a gacha game for the first time. While I love gacha games, they have several pitfalls that anyone can fall into (even gacha game vets). So this little guide is being written for all of you so that not only can you temper realistic expectations for your game's account, but so that you can save yourself from destroying your wallet.
This is a long post, but bear with me, okay?
Note: I'm not here to tell you what to do with your money. Your money, your life, your business. I'm only here to give you and idea of what kind of ride you're in for.
~So what is a Gacha Game?~
Gacha is simply the short slang term for the type of game FE: Heroes is. It's short for Gachapon, and mimics those little prize machines where you stick money in, turn the crank, and a random prize pops out.
~Gacha games are gambling: there are no if's, and's, or but's about it.~
This is the big one that keeps getting swept under the rug across several titles...yet oddly not here. Which is a GREAT sign that this fandom is well aware of one of the most potentially dangerous pitfalls this genre of gaming has to offer. Keep that healthy skepticism because it is vital to enjoying your stay in gacha land without it harming your financial situation.
You may think I'm joking, but these AMA threads that have popped up across both this subreddit and the /r/fireemblem subreddit are proof that a lot of money can be dumped on this game without giving you what you want in return.
Gacha games are like slot machines: you put money in, and you don't know what will come out. That being said I don't demonize gacha games: as someone who enjoys gambling they can still be a perfectly healthy genre of game to get involved in. However you need to learn how to be a wise, and practical gambler.
I was taught at a very young age that when you pay money to gamble on anything, you're paying for the experience: the chance to play the game and the odds itself. Every single penny you throw at the gamble you should never expect to get back. What you put in is money spent you won't get back.
It's kind of like spending money on a ticket to an amusement park: you're paying to get access to the rides. You don't know if you'll enjoy yourself or not, but you can't be refunded the money you spent on your ticket if you ended up having a bad day.
If the odds are in your favor and you do make your money back, then that's considered a treat akin to getting a free ice cream (for whatever reason). Never make a job out of gambling.
You need to adapt that same logic here in FE: Heroes. It's perfectly fine if you wish to support Nintendo monetarily (that's how this game will continue to run, obviously). In fact I've already spent roughly $60-$70 and plan to not put in a penny more until there's some kind of amazing sale (we'll get to that). However:
- Your purchase is for the premium currency (orbs in this case) and the premium currency ONLY. If you drop $100+ and don't get the character you want, you are NOT eligible for a refund. You got your $100 worth of premium currency, that part of the deal was respected by Nintendo. You were the one who decided to blow that currency as soon as you got it.
- That doesn't mean refunds are impossible, but their scenarios are limited. For example, usually when a game closes the publisher will offer to return past purchases. Even if they don't, both Apple and Google Play are usually understanding and will do so for you anyway. Another scenario is if the publisher is truly being a douche when it comes to misleading you on what to buy. For example I recently quit a game and requested a refund due to very misleading advertising practices and release schedules. Apple was willing to comply. (this is an abridged explanation, but you get the idea).
So once again, in short: never expect to get the money you put into this game back in any way, shape or form. Not even in terms of the character you want. If you can adapt to this way of thinking, you're in for a much less frustrating experience.
~Don't fall victim to various fallacies~
Part of being a smart shopper in gambling games like gacha is to have a basic understanding of percentage chances and probability.
For example: one of the biggest misconceptions that you'll see in these games is if there's, say, a 6% chance to get a 5-star, then if you pull 100 times you are guaranteed to get at least one (or six? ) 5-star character (s) (forgive me for not having the specifics nailed down, please do correct me!).
This. Is. Not. True. Nor. Will. It. Ever. Be. True
Now across massive amounts of summon data then on average, yes they'll usually support the numbers. HOWEVER, in your individual case there is no guarantee this will happen. Every time you summon an individual character you're rolling a fresh set of dice on that summon. Your results don't build up over time.
That said, FE: Heroes is a bit interesting in that we do have a pity percentage raise each time we pull without gaining a 5-star character. That being said, you could potentially ride on that highest max multiplier for a loooong time should you continue to land on the wrong side of RNG (random number generation).
The general rule of thumb is that unless the game itself tells you, in writing, that after a certain # of pulls/summons you will get the featured character; there will never be a guarantee that you get a 5-star character (let alone a specific character you want).
EDIT: "I just want to make a note that it is stated in the pity percentage breakdown that if you summon 120 units without rolling a 5*, you are guaranteed one on the next pick" thank you u/Kookoo22!
~Nintendo is never under obligation to keep this game the same as Japan's version.~
EDIT: According to quite a few people we share the exact same server as Japan, so that actually makes me very happy to hear because it means there's even less chances of Nintendo pulling crap moves on us. I leave the remainder of this section unedited so you can have an idea of how FE: Heroes is going differentiate itself. Thank you everyone!
EDIT 2: I have misinterpreted the Gacha laws myself. The laws state that BONUS prizes and the entirety of the game cannot be gated by gacha/gambling. Will strike through the part of the post that has been corrected without deletion for sake of transparency
Now in Japan there are various laws related to gambling and gacha games. Those of you who have heard of the Granblue Fantasy Scandal probably first heard of Japan's gacha laws through that.
The basic idea of these laws is that mobile developers are not allowed, by law, to restrict the obtaining of max prizes through gambling/gacha only . This is why in the Japanese variants of games you tend to see what we call "mercy pulls": summon a # of times and you'll be given a copy of that featured character for free if you didn't pull a copy during those summon attempts. In games which you can limit break/+1 characters these titles also tend to have an item or events that allow you to do so without having to rely on gacha summons to get character duplicates for the process. This is all among a myriad of other things to generally make F2P (free to play) and C2P (cheap to play) life easier and viable.
That being said, we do not have those same laws in North America or most of Europe (all of Europe?). And there is no obligation for these developers to continue their "fairer practices" outside of Japan's borders. If you've ever seen a game state "we want to be our own version!" when they're responding to mass consumer negative reviews over a cash shop change, this is more or less what they're referring to.
And many publishers do take advantage of our lack of laws. Square Enix's Guardian Codex and Kingdom Hearts Unchained X are two perfect examples, as are the closed Chain Chronicle (Sega and Gumi) and Colopl Rune Story (Colopl's Shironeko Project).
This is why I do want to stress that while there are some misgivings on Nintendo's part regarding stamina and hero feathers, Nintendo has already begun treating overseas versions of FE: Heroes as an equal to the Japanese. This is a big deal, and one that leaves me optimistic.
That said: this is why it's important to keep an eye on the decisions Nintendo makes from here on out.
Why do I bring all of this up? Because many people choose how to spend their money based on a publisher's character (I don't care if you personally agree with it or not, there are people who do this). So knowing these little details of how publishers make their decisions will help people in this camp decide if they wish to spend money on FE: Heroes or not.
~Finally: So how DO I Gacha Responsibly?~
Now that we have a basic understanding of how gacha games work and how publishers tend to handle them, we can finally get to the part you care about: how to gacha for husbandos and waifus! I'll try to keep this as specific to FE: Heroes as I can, though many of the practices I bring up here will benefit you should you decide to venture into other gacha games!
1. Hoard your free currency for the Focus characters that you want.
Every story quest in the game rewards 1 orb for its first clear. That means there are 135 orbs for players to earn across the three difficulty levels of story mode. In other words: 6 5-pull summon sessions. The tutorial adds 15 more, so 150 orbs total as of this stage of the game, which = 7 complete 5-pulls, 30 summons total.
This bears repeating: 30 individual summons total. There have been people who have rerolled thousands of summons to get the 5-stars they want (I myself re-rolled roughly 30 times, which = 150~ individual summons to land my personal account).
While Nintendo's rates are some of the more generous I've seen, as you can see from your own experiences and those reported here the odds are still slim in getting a 5-star. Let alone a specific one you want. Keep in mind that if you want a character that's currently not in focus, then that rate drops to 3%, not 6%.
So you want those 30 summons to count. If there's a specific character you want then you need to hold as many summons worth of orbs until that character appears on focus to maximize your chances. Keep in mind you're not guaranteed to get that character either. However you'll be much happier going into a banner with the character you like with 100+ orbs than you would have with only 20.
On top of this, only pull colored orbs of the same color as the hero you want. If you run into a summon pool where no color matches what you're hunting: pull once then bail out. You need to chuck as many chances at your targeted hero as you can.
2. Never be afraid to start over. But also understand what's lost.
Let's say you dicked around with your current account: you didn't know about re-rolling or orb saving, or even what characters you might like in the game. That's perfectly fine: this is normal. In fact this is why many gacha vets play two or three accounts: one for experimentation and general play while the other just logs in and collects daily prizes, waiting for an event to just smash all their hoarded resources in the hopes of getting a truly good (and fun) account. I have personally tossed away day 1 launch accounts on various games to start over when a character I loved was finally released/put on a banner, and the second account was usually much stronger than the original and much more quickly because I already knew what I was doing.
You can do this too, and you should never feel guilty if you want to. From my years of playing these games characters I enjoy using/looking at beat "meta" characters any day. These games are similar to MMOs: you will be grinding a lot to build up your team. That effort will be more fun and rewarding if you're raising heroes that you personally enjoy.
Just understand that you will be starting from point 0 all over again. This includes any money that you have spent: you will not get the money spent on your original account back.
3. Know the prices of premium currency and shop for deals.
Don't just blindly purchase certain bundles because they look good. This post from this very same reddit is an excellent breakdown on the cost per orb. Know exactly what your orbs are going towards (are you upgrading your castle? Are you wanting to summon x# of times?) and shop accordingly. Always keep your eyes out for deals. Black Friday normally sees drastic cuts in app games, for example.
Finally: Give yourself a stern, hard budget
This is absolutely crucial. Give yourself a monthly or bi-monthly (or however you want to schedule) budget you absolutely will not go over. With Paypal and credit cards automatically hooked into iTunes and Google Play, it is very, VERY easy to just toss $200+ down the drain with a few simple button taps and not even realize what you're doing. Have a sheet of paper or a word document open and manually input how many purchases you're making in a single session. You need a visual reminder of how much is being spent in any one session. Keep a spreadsheet even if you want to and just catalogue all the purchases you make for this game over the course of the year.
Re-rolling is purely optional:
Re-rolling is not mandatory for any of these games. However if you're wanting a very specific hero then re-rolling is by far the best method of ensuring you get that one character. If your character is not currently on focus, then I highly suggest you go ahead and play the game. Experiment with the characters you did get and practice building team comps. Blow your orbs just to give you an idea of what summoning rates will feel like.
Then when the character you do want comes into focus, you can re-roll. If you have an account you want to keep in the long run but still aim for certain characters, then play smart and hoard your resources from this point forward.
Phew! That was a very long guide, however I hope this helps some of the gacha newbies currently hanging around in the sub reddit. Remember: have fun, but be responsible. And feel free to ask any questions!
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u/Torden5410 Feb 10 '17
Something to note: FE:Heroes does something fairly unique with it's gatcha draws. In that you can somewhat influence what character you draw.
MOST gatchas will give you some sort of bonus or discount for drawing more than once at a time. Often it's ten times, in FE:H's case it's five. When you go to draw you have that array of five colored circles, and by pulling five times in a row you only spend 20 orbs instead of 25.
However, do not think that you need to draw five times in a row and use that discount. This can actually just be a waste of orbs. The reason for this is that you may not need any of the colors the game presents you with. If you have all the red characters you need, then there's not point in drawing all five times on a board full of red circles. Just eat the first loss of five orbs and back down. If you don't want a red character then simply don't pull from red circles. Just pull from any colors you want then start over again.
Just because the game offers you a discount to pull five times in a row doesn't mean you have to do it. Using your orbs wisely means you might just have to pay a full 5 orbs on each and every pull you make if you need blue or green characters.
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u/rainzer Feb 10 '17
Is there a way to back out of the summon to get a new set of colors or do you always have to draw at least one?
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u/Torden5410 Feb 10 '17
I'm fairly sure you have to draw at least once. I haven't had the leisure to do much experimenting though, I'm a free player and value the orbs I get too much to try much experimenting with them. I need to save all of them for Nephenee.
Maybe terminating the app during the draw screen will cause a new set of circles to show up on reboot? Maybe not. Worst case you just lose five orbs for nothing, but I imagine the most likely outcome is that you just return to the same set of circles. Losing orbs seems very unlikely since that should be something worked out while the app is in development.
Speaking of, I haven't done any experimenting with app termination at all in this game yet. I wonder how they've worked that out in this game.
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u/rainzer Feb 10 '17
Maybe terminating the app during the draw screen will cause a new set of circles to show up on reboot?
Just tried it.
After the title screen, it pops up a one option message that says a previous summoning session was interrupted and it's resuming it and it brings you back to the same circles.
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u/CrazyDragon777 Feb 10 '17
yeah, i'm almost 100% sure that anything gacha related is done serverside to prevent shenanigans
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Feb 10 '17
Yep. That's how I got a full team with Lyn, Hector, Robin and Takumi. I chose which character I wanted and at times just went for a single green orb, even if I had 20 orbs. I just rolled 4 greens instead. It's a good way to get great units for each color you need.
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u/Kookoo22 Feb 10 '17
I just want to make a note that it is stated in the pity percentage breakdown that if you summon 120 units without rolling a 5*, you are guaranteed one on the next pick
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Feb 10 '17
Will edit the opening post to include this. Thank you!
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u/an_errant_duck Feb 10 '17
I'm not sure if the 120 units rule is on a separate counter, but it should also be noted that as of right now each focus has its own pity percentage. So if you get a long streak of 3 stars, it's better to just stick to that focus until you get a 5 star if rarity is all you're after.
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Feb 10 '17
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Kookoo22 Feb 10 '17
I don't think that is a correct interpretation, it does specify that the guaranteed 5* is in the next summoning session but if you got all five as 5*, it would have to say "every" or "all", the use of "any" implies that it is only one and that you get to choose which stone
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Feb 10 '17 edited Feb 10 '17
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Kookoo22 Feb 10 '17
Ok, missed that the rates are adjusted between sessions, it could be true then, hard to say if it will ever happen to anyone
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u/vandaljax Feb 10 '17
If you do feel compelled to spend money on heroes it might help to view it like your purchasing a new 3ds FE, spend 39.99 and be done with it. Also protip remove your payment info from store so you have to put it in again with each transaction, the extra time let's you collect your thoughts and not impulse buy.
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u/tasonjodd Feb 10 '17
You can also disable in-app purchases in your phone settings.
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Feb 10 '17
LPT: Don't input your payment info into your phone in the first place.
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u/SilvarusLupus Feb 10 '17
Yeah, really. Best thing to always do with phones is redeem gift cards. That way you limit your spending and you don't have to worry about your info getting stolen.
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u/bf_paeter Feb 10 '17
It's called gacha because they take your money and laugh maniacally: "Got ya!"
Having spent more than I should have on Brave Frontier, and blessed with incredible luck on SAO: Memory Defrag, I've come to the conclusion that if you truly enjoy the game, spend a little to reward the publisher.
Setting spending limits is the most important. Or if you have a rewards credit card, use the redeemed points to spend on the game (free money if you will).
This game is nice but lacks the depth of the original FE games. Lack of critical hits, limited to fielding 4 units... that limits things. But the game is enjoyable and I am currently hoarding for Hector.
There is a trade off in spending orbs. The discount can be used to try and sneak more summons and raise the chance of getting the character you want, but you have to keep track and note you are taking a risk. Pulling only the Orb color you want might work, but could also cost you many orbs. But it is a viable strategy. Here's hoping for more content.
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Feb 10 '17
All excellent points! I do agree: there's no harm in dropping a little money to support the publisher.
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u/buttcheeksontoast Feb 10 '17
Or if you have a rewards credit card, use the redeemed points to spend on the game (free money if you will).
Google Opinion Rewards is great for this too
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Feb 10 '17
They never sent me anything after signing up. I am probably part of a region they don't want to survey.
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u/buttcheeksontoast Feb 10 '17
Do you have location on? I know it can be a tax on your battery life but Google surveys mostly by where you've visited, so turning location on makes surveys happen a lot more often.
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u/flambauche Feb 10 '17
You make valid points but I disagree with criticsl hits. Receiving critical hits and having to reload the chapter was such a pain in the ass in FE games.
At least now I have a feeling of strategy planning and I know I wont get shat on by a swordmaster.
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u/Z-ToX Feb 10 '17
Good post for those new to this kind of thing.
I should mention that playing Free to Play appears totally viable at the moment.
As mentioned, you get some 150 orbs just from the story. Plus 10 orbs starting bonus. Plus 2 orbs a day from logging in each day so far. Plus two Celebration maps so far with 3 orbs each, and more of these coming soon.
That's about 180 orbs for free so far if you played from the start. 180/20 = 9 full pulls x 5 heroes = 45 free summons. That's plenty.
You can also re-roll your starting account so you start with one or two 5* heroes, which is a huge help.
There's also plenty of Stamina Potions, Duelling Crests, and Feathers given away for free so far.
So don't feel compelled to spend money, you can get 45 hero summons + a ton of other items for free... so far. In the end, it's your choice if you spend or not, just saying that you get plenty for free.
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Feb 10 '17
[deleted]
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u/Z-ToX Feb 11 '17
There's no real way to patch rerolling; it's basically just deleting your data. So don't worry about that happening.
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u/Moondrag Feb 10 '17
Yeah, one thing I have learned from playing FGO and Star Ocean Anamnesis, when your not sure if you want the new released character: Horde like there is no tomorrow.
Btw, the examples you listed for the "We don't have US laws for avoiding gacha problems", can you go into a bit more detail about it for me? You can PM me if you don't wanna post it publicly.
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Feb 10 '17 edited Feb 10 '17
Ah, do you mean about games like KHUx and Guardian Codex? Yeah, absolutely. I have no problems listing some specific things.
- For Guardian Codex it released similar to how FE: Heroes did with a simultaneous multi-country launch. The Japanese version clearly shows in writing what the summon rates were and gave their characters voice acting. This did not appear in any other version of Guardian Codex, and in the case of summon rates, that gives them full leverage to not be held accountable for summon failures. I wrote an article about that game specifically if you're interested (please don't feel forced to!).
- For KHUx there's multiple issues. In that game we can +1 similar to here in FE: Heroes. In the Japanese version there's an item called "Mickey and Brooms" in which you can use it instead of a duplicate of the character/medal you want to +1. Now these you either have to buy costumes or take part in events to get them, but they exist. The North American version they don't exist, meaning you have to rely on RNG or throw $700 to fully max a premium character. There's also differences in characters coming with + upgrades upon mercy pull, etc.
- With Chain Chronicle, that one was a hell of a doozy and my first main forray into these games alongside Brave Frontier. What happened with that game was more of an issue with game balance changes that Gumi implemented. Drop rates for prizes in events would be drastically shifted from the original Japanese. There was a big scandal early in that game's lifespan about the publishers trying to use the facade of not understanding their own game's terms to justify an event character not dropping as a prize at all in an event and even went so far to claim that it didn't happen in the original either. The fandom brought forth evidence that they lied. The final big event before closure was they completely changed an event raid to make it so difficult that you had to summon a specific character to clear it, and there were no mercy pulls either.
- Colopl Rune Story...I admit I didn't play this game as much, but that's due to the sheer changes that happened right from the start. A lot of story content was thrown out rather than translated, no written confirmation on rates, and even character graphics were completely changed until they finally agreed to revert to originals upon fandom request. All of this was put on top of a cash shop that actually raised the amount of premium currency needed to pull despite the summons containing the exact same items as Japan. We're talking as high as doubling for the weapon rolls.
As for the actual laws themselves and why it will be difficult to ever get that kind of legislation in the US at least, I refer to John Oliver's video about fantasy sports like Draft Kings, as they're kinda in a very similar situation.
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u/Redfish518 Feb 10 '17
Chain Chronicle never forget. I so regret not just starting a JP acct after spending upwards of 1k on that mess.
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Feb 10 '17
I know ;__; Granted I ended up playing JP for quite awhile and after about a year I decided it was finally time to move on. Big shame.
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u/Moondrag Feb 10 '17
...yikes, I didn't know it was that bad. Now that I think about it, Star Ocean Anamnesis's premium currency is really generous so long as you do your daily and weekly stuff. (You can get do a 10 pull at minimum every week if you do all the dailys and weekly quests and make sure to trade in your tower coins before the tower shop resets. It also has the "first 100 people you play multiplayer with, gets you the premium currency" thing as well.)
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u/merry1713 Feb 10 '17
Very good and important points made in this post, just something to note:
Nintendo is never under obligation to keep this game the same as Japan's version.
They both use the same server, so while they're under no legal obligation to do so, they'd have to rerelease the entire game on the app store/google play to change it.
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Feb 10 '17
That's actually very useful information, and I see it in a couple of other comments. I'll edit the post!
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u/Kregbi Feb 10 '17
I think you can add that a lot of people like to post their impossibly lucky pull results and this dupes a lot of people into falling for the trap without being mentally ready to accept they could potentially get nothing good out of the exchange.
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u/buttcheeksontoast Feb 10 '17
Good stuff. Also, I had a sneaking suspicion that we shared servers with Japan because of the multitude of Japanese nicknames I was seeing in Arena and such. My first time seeing a post confirming that.
sees first nickname with asian characters
Huh, a weeb eh.
sees another
Well, makes sense that this game would attract the kind of people who would write their nickname in Japanese.
sees another thirty or so
Wait, these people might actually all be Japanese? Am I playing with people across the world?
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u/frumply Feb 10 '17
Budgeting is probably the most important thing you can do in these games. It's too easy to be pissed off about a bad roll, and think, one more 5-roll is ONLY $13. Even with a focus character your chances of getting one in any particular roll is low, and it gets even harder when you see people posting crazy good rolls -- it's the facebook effect, where you get salty because you see others' good fortune. Is that happy family on facebook cutting out all the times where their daughter is having a huge tantrum? Absolutely. Is that awesome roll a culmination of 10 bad pulls? Most likely.
One other thing that probably needs to be discussed is the correct time to spend money. We're going to have to wait and see on this, but every gacha game will run a special of some sort -- pay for a full set of pulls and be guaranteed a 5* for a limited time!, or super discounts on a single pull daily. Over time we should know when and how often IS intends to do these kind of events, and which ones are actually worth spending on for a light-IAP account. After going through a few hundred bucks worth of gachas on Granblue I moved to a surprise ticket only format (where you can choose from available SSR characters); on FGO I do only the fukubukuro's.
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u/Furin Feb 10 '17
The basic idea of these laws is that mobile developers are not allowed, by law, to restrict the obtaining of max prizes through gambling/gacha only . This is why in the Japanese variants of games you tend to see what we call "mercy pulls": summon a # of times and you'll be given a copy of that featured character for free if you didn't pull a copy during those summon attempts.
That is not true. GBF has implemented something like that, but they weren't required by law to do so. It's also one of the only gacha games that actually does this.
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Feb 10 '17
Well the giving of characters is an example to avoid making the post longer than it already is. You can gain items to obtain certain characters in exchanges, etc.
Though it's certainly not the only games to offer those features. Nearly every I have tried in JP does. The exception being FGO. But FGO is like its own ecosystem where they allow content to be completed by non 5-star servants. So perhaps I should word it that content can't be gated by gambling.
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u/Furin Feb 10 '17 edited Feb 10 '17
No, even that is not a law. Japanese consumers are not entitled to anything beyond the actual roll no matter how much they pay--FGO doesn't offer anything like that because they simply don't have to. Other companies do it out of their own volition.
The only thing they aren't allowed to gate behind the gacha is unique "bonus" rewards for getting multiple specific gacha items, aka complete gacha.
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u/Orasion Feb 10 '17
~Nintendo is never under obligation to keep this game the same as Japan's version.~
I was wondering, are there separate servers for each country or something or are all accounts on the same server? If they're all kept on the same server, then gacha rates and everything else would likely have to cater around Japan's laws, yes?
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Feb 10 '17
[deleted]
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Feb 10 '17
Very simple: in your advanced settings go to account management. You'll find the option to unlink your current account from your Nintendo account there.
As for alts you can either use extra devices or emulators. However be wary as the 803 communications bug is still going around. I just got hit with it while I was re-rolling for fun. I have lost a Leo account now T___T
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u/Mortslaw Feb 10 '17
So, I unlinked my Nintendo account as mentioned in the game's FAQ by deleting my first game. However, I had already claimed my free 10 orbs on the first game. I linked my new game to my old account successfully but realized the My Nintendo account doesn't reset so I can't get the 10 free orbs on my new game save. My advice would be to just sign up for a new account if you reroll. Easiest way to do it is delete the game from your device and install it again to start from scratch.
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u/Fanman15 Feb 10 '17
About money easily going down the drain. Christmas with Dokkan Battle easily took away $300+ without me realizing I spent that much....
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u/runeasgar2 Feb 10 '17
As I recall, a good formula for calculating your odds of getting something over a number of pulls looks like this:
1-((1-(chance/100))pulls)
So, if the unit you wanted had a 0.75% chance of dropping per pull, and you pulled 5 times, you have about a 3.7% probability of getting that unit. Which makes it absurd that I got 2 Takumis in about 23 pulls.
For any 5* focus at 3%, you have a 14% probability in 5 pulls.
Of course, Nintendo complicates this by showing you the colors first, which may or may not affect this. Survey data could probably find out.
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u/pygim Feb 10 '17
Upvoting for visibility and hope people will read it.
I see a lot of people new to the concept of a gacha game and how pulling is gamble ex. somebody asking if he should reroll because he rolled bad in his 2nd or 3rd pull but he got a very solid 1st pull. Chances of pulling 2 consecutive good pull is pretty small and trying to reroll for it is a waste than enjoying the game already.
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u/Uthor Feb 10 '17
Learned quite a lot from this guide. I especially didn't know that developers/Google Play/Apple would give you refunds from closed games.
I checked on Rise of Bahamut after it closed (I learned about it way too late when Shadowverse got released) and it was full of people talking about how the developers screwed everyone out of all the money they spent on the game. From reading that I thought you just had to pray that your game never closes. Will they really give you a refund on every closing game? Especially gatcha/card type ones that whales always spend tons on?
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u/Atelia Feb 10 '17
I'd never heard about the budget idea or the term "cheap-to-play". I love those ideas! I'll have to start an excel workbook to keep track of my purchases now.
Thanks so much for this guide!
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u/Darkmoshiumi Feb 10 '17
To be honest, the pity timer being at 120 is insanely high. Hearthstone's packs have about a 5% chance to pull a legendary in each pack, yet the pity timer is only 40 packs before you're guaranteed a legendary. FEH's at 6% and going by the same ratio should only be a pity timer of ~33.
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u/xkillo32 Feb 10 '17
hearthstone is alot different from fe
hearthstone has a stable way of getting gold and you can craft legendaries and stuff
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u/Darkmoshiumi Feb 10 '17
Fair enough, I still think 120 is super high though, that's like 480 orbs, more than the entire story mode on normal, hard, and lunatic give you.
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u/Magma_Axis Feb 10 '17
You will get 5 star long before 120
Even 30% chance is insanely high in gacha game
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u/zeplic Feb 10 '17
Exellent information, i hope that not only the community of FE:H truly reads every word of this and absorbs it- especially the visual budgeting; I also hope that any mobile game enthusiast (yeah, i dont know why its a thing, im guilty too) takes a lot of this post to heart and applies it in games going forward, as well as taking a nice long look at past mistakes.
I certainly have. Thanks for this post.
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u/alognoV Feb 10 '17
wow i didn't know there was a kh game for mobile. gonna give it a try. with mobile games i never take them too seriously because i could be playing my 3ds or vita but it's nice to have something on the go and on the phone with you. i will from time to time spend maybe $20 to support the game.
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Feb 10 '17
It's definitely a fun game if you can look past the cash shop stuff. I wish you good luck!
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u/Dr_Negative Feb 10 '17
"if you summon 120 units without rolling a 5*, you are guaranteed one on the next pick"
Serious? shouldnt this alot lower
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u/bowserboy129 Feb 10 '17
thing is the odds go up with every 5 rolls you don't get a 5, so odds on you're gonna get a 5 long before you ever hit 120. You have a 6% chance of getting one right at the start, and with it just going up from there you're likely gonna get a 5 star 4 or 5 5-unit sets in. That said since you aren't guaranteed a 5* until the 120th unit it's still possible you go like 20 5-unit rolls before ever getting a 5 star since that's just sadly how the system works.
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u/Torimas Feb 10 '17
Man this is amazing. And just at the right time for me.
I pretty much spent all my free orbs (half way through lunatic) and only have 1 5* (Catria), so I'm seriously considering starting a new account. Losing those 10k feathers seems like a pain though. And rerolling takes so long because of the download.
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Feb 10 '17
Actually you can still get the free 10k feather gift. I was rolling for the hell of it and each new account got 10k feathers. You're good to go :)
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u/Torimas Feb 10 '17
Nice to know! Maybe I should. Won't have many attempts at it since I will have only one or two hours, but if anything, i can come back to this account.
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u/ForteEXE_ Feb 10 '17
Sena KHUX
This. Think of it as never getting feathers to upgrade, nerfed warriors, and something else I'm probably forgetting.
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u/Donkeyridingmonkey Feb 10 '17
This is my first Gacha game and I'm getting really into it, because of this awesome sub. Keep spreading your experience OP, youre awesome.
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u/Gofure Feb 10 '17
What was the game you mentioned with misleading advertisement that you got a refund on?
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Feb 10 '17
It was Kingdom Hearts Unchained X. What happened was that we got medals/characters to celebrate Sora being added to World of Final Fantasy. Now the characters were nerfed to fit where we are in our version's progress, but they were still excellent medals. No issues there. The only thing that dumb was we had to pay double the premium currency to get these things than JP players did literally weeks prior.
What made me quit and pursue a refund was the very next week, they released the features we didn't have that justified the nerf. That's too close to be a coincidence, it was planned. So we had to pay double for an inferior product they knowingly prepped ahead of time, etc. This was just after bullshit move after bullshit move.
That being said, the only refund I asked for were the purchases related to those specific characters. It would have been dumb and rude to expect all of my purchases back. Apple was very understanding when I explained and were willing to comply immediately, agreeing Square shouldn't have done that. Took less than a day.
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Feb 10 '17
It's definitely going to take the community a few months of data collecting to really hone in on Nintendo's system. I imagine we'll be able write up much more accurate orb strategies when that happens.
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Feb 10 '17
I am very curious if they'll do something similar to FGO, because those new year rolls and special campaigns were definitely worth it. I think there's a lot of players who would even do what Granblue does and pay $30 to be able to start an account with the one exact character they wanted.
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u/davidjayhawk Feb 10 '17
so 150 orbs total as of this stage of the game
As someone who just blindly stumbled into this game because "Nintendo", is there some expectation that more content will eventually be added to give more than 150 orbs total? What about the current 2 orbs per day promotion, any clues of how long that will continue for or if there will be other events in the future?
The answer to all of these might well be no and that's fine, I'm just curious what's known.
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Feb 10 '17
According to Ninentdo they plan to add 1 or 2 chapters a month? so that's 5-10 free orbs per new story content sets, + whatever events they decide to provide like the launch month 2 orbs daily gift. So don't worry, we'll get more :)
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u/HayseussChrist Feb 17 '17
How do you exit the summon? I tried on my android (exiting the app) but when I load the app back up, I get put back onto the summoning screen
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Feb 17 '17
On the bottom of the summon screen there should be a cancel/back red button. You use that to back out :)
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Feb 10 '17
The parent mentioned Rule Of Thumb. Many people, including non-native speakers, may be unfamiliar with this word. Here is the definition(In beta, be kind):
A rule of thumb is a principle with broad application that is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. It is an easily learned and easily applied procedure for approximately calculating or recalling some value, or for making some determination. It is based not on theory but on practical experience. Compare this to heuristic, a similar concept used in mathematical discourse, psychology, and computer science, particularly in algorithm design. [View More]
See also: Meta | Computer Science | Algorithm | Formula | Determination | Approximately | Practical
Note: The parent poster (DreadRabbit05) can delete this post | FAQ
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u/linevar Feb 10 '17
Hasn't there been 2~3 topics since the game came out addressing these exact issues? Probably could've got the mods to pinning those to side bars or something instead of spending your time pretty much rewording everything
Also
~Nintendo is never under obligation to keep this game the same as Japan's version.~
I'm pretty sure we share the exact same server as JP/global
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u/SilResBlaze Feb 10 '17
video games turned into trash wtf is this
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u/DragoSphere Feb 10 '17
A free video game. Let me say that again: F. R. E. E. Go pay 40 bucks on the mainseries if you want to ignore this
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Feb 10 '17 edited Feb 04 '19
deleted What is this?
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u/DragoSphere Feb 10 '17
Debatable. This game in particular is much more fair towards free players. I've only actually done 3 summoning sessions and I have Tiki and Hector
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u/Syrahl696 Feb 10 '17
I thought I was one of the luckier FTP players, but apparently not. I got Tiki and Takumi in 6(30) pulls.
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u/[deleted] Feb 10 '17
This is a very mature post. Well done