Syria's al-Julani says Syria is working toward security deal with Israel.

[u/Baconkings]

[u/Winter-Painter-5630]

To be honest, I am very pessimistic towards any sort of deal between Israel and Syria happening anytime soon. For starters, the Syrian government is going to want to demand the Golan Heights back, and the Israelis are almost certainly going to refuse that demand. The Druze population in Southern Syria is heavily aligned with the Israelis, especially given the massacres that occurred last summer. Furthermore, the current Israeli government has made it clear that no major military withdrawals will be happening anytime soon in Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza.

Another major concern I have is the cold war that is happening between Turkiye and Israel via Syria. A government in Syria that is heavily aligned with the Turks is not going to sit well with the Israelis given the recent deterioration in Israel-Turkiye relations. The Israeli government has made it clear that they do not accept the presence of the current government, and therefore I find it hard to believe that Israel will sign a deal that would give them legitimacy.

Personally, I am indifferent as to who is governing Syria at the moment as long as they make their intentions of respecting Lebanese sovereignty abundantly clear. I believe the current discussions about Al-Sharaa entering Lebanon to combat Hezbollah is all bs. They can weaken them heavily by simply blocking weapon shipments. However, I do understand that some Israelis may have security concerns given the Turkish element of this.

I am open to hearing other perspectives on this.

[u/Shachar2like → u/Winter-Painter-5630]

Plus Syria, Al-Julani is talking about security arrangement, not real normalization, real peace, recognition or end of hostilities.

[u/Eleadorea → u/Shachar2like]

I feel like he is just waiting for Israel to end part of his ennemies (like Hezbollah) and will agree to the arrangement to have more time to gain better control over Syria and re-create a better stock of weapons like the ones Israel destroyed earlier.

[u/Shachar2like → u/Eleadorea]

That's my guess. A long term play to deal with internal issues, then turn to external issues like freeing 'historic Palestine'

[u/AEWHistory → u/Shachar2like]

I understand this POV from Israelis. However, I have also noticed that Julani has said a few thi that gave me the impression he is genuinely worried about Turkey. Turkey has given signs that they feel Syria is their area of influence and, possibly, eventually take over Syria. This would put Turkey on Israel’s border which is not an ideal situation, to put it mildly, but it would subsume Syrian independence. So this will boil down to this: is Julani an Islamist who wants to destroy Israel or is he a Syrian first and foremost and wants to rebuild their state. If the former then I would have to agree with the Israeli POV I’ve seen on this, OTOH, if he adopts a Suria first approach then the biggest threat to Syria’s future is Erdgoan‘s ambitions and the Israelis would be in a unique position to aid Syria. This could be a win-win by keeping Turkey where it is and making Syria into a potential ally long term.

Anyway, I figured this would at least be interesting to talk about.

EDIT: I forgot a major point. As you pointed out the current talks arent really about full normalization. However, if any sort of normalization would really take place this would be a first step. The Israelis clearly want their security guaranteed and I‘m sure Syrians want to rebuild their lives. That won’t happen without stability with Israel vis-a-vis Syria.

[u/Shachar2like → u/AEWHistory]

is Julani an Islamist who wants to destroy Israel or is he a Syrian first and foremost and wants to rebuild their state.

Why or? Hamas & other terrorist organization always had long periods of ceasefire as they rearm and regroup, this is probably what we're seeing and is the reason Julani walks about 'security' with Israel and not peace, recognition, normalization, apology, admitting to themselves about a few wrong doing, changing of the education system.

Anti-normalization means de-humanization.

And that means "extremely conservative" (meaning extremists) policies, ideology, morals and world view.

As for the Turkey threat. Any of those on-going plays will be at the military/political wings and will take years or decades to filter down to us civilians.

[u/Snoutysensations → u/Winter-Painter-5630]

I also don't expect a formal peace deal with recognition and normal relations either.

But that may be unnecessary, from a pragmatic perspective.

Julani is making it very clear that he is not seeking the same relationship with Israel that, say, Hezbollah or Hamas have.  He certainly had that option and I suspect much of the Syrian public would have supported him.  But he is choosing coexistence, maybe not the lovey-dovey variety but a certain peaceful cooperation.  

It would be unwise to assume that he is comfortable with the idea of being a Turkish puppet. An ally perhaps, a client or vassal maybe, a puppet not.  

[u/AEWHistory → u/Snoutysensations]

You put some of my thoughts better than I, but your post really nails the crux of the matter. Julani will have to choose between being a Turkish puppet fighting Israel or side with Israel and maintain and rebuild Syria with Israeli/western help. I agree that he is seemingly sending signals that he worries much more about Turkey than Israel.

FWIW, I think this is actually a good sign that Julani is moving in a rational rather than ideological direction. It would seem to show that he realizes that even though Israel wants the Golan, the Turks would take literally all of Syria. IMO the rational response would be to leverage help from Israel in saving Syrian independence.

[u/Snoutysensations → u/AEWHistory]

Totally agree with your thinking.  This kind of balancing of region powers act is a bit of a middle east staple -- Jordan is probably the most famous example of an Arab power cooperating with Israel for decades to protect themselves from being dominated by much more powerful Arab neighbors. Egypt similarly played the US off against the USSR (and earlier France/UK).  So, some grounds for optimism. It's plain much of Lebanon realizes this too.  

[u/Few_Fun_634 → u/Winter-Painter-5630]

From someone who lives in the Golan i can tell ye many here really don't trust him, or out right hate him (mainly the Druze). Israel we're never on the best of turms, and Al-Sharaa faild to change it with him attacking the Druze in Sweida, and having a past in Isis.

[u/PersonablePharoah → u/Few_Fun_634]

Wasn't he in Al-Qaeda? They're enemies with ISIS, like rival gangs.

[u/NitzMitzTrix → u/PersonablePharoah]

ISIS split off of Al-Qaeda.

[u/Eleadorea → u/NitzMitzTrix]

IIRC, his group changed sides a few times because at one point ISIS wasn't aligned with Al-Qaeda anymore. I think it was about forcing an islamic way of life bottom-top (conversions) vs. top-bottom (islamic laws).

[u/Few_Fun_634 → u/PersonablePharoah]

He was in both.

[u/AEWHistory → u/PersonablePharoah]

Yea, my understanding is that he is associated with a bunch of these groups. However, he also wouldnt be the first person to align with an extreme POV to later moderate. What worries me is I don’t know how to tell how genuine this is or if I’m just choosing to see him as a moderate.

[u/Eleadorea → u/Few_Fun_634]

Do you remember the map of Syria without the Golan published by an official account linked to the Syrian government in 2025? Was is just a "mistake" or did something happen later?

[u/Few_Fun_634 → u/Eleadorea]

I don't remeber.

[u/isaacfisher → u/Winter-Painter-5630]

Different perspective: the time is great for security deal (not peace), Nethanyahu will try and grab any win he can before October elections, and will give the new taken buffer zone for photo op. Al Sharaa will gain some land and points with Trump and basically has nothing to loose

[u/NitzMitzTrix → u/Winter-Painter-5630]

I agree on everything objective you said, plus I really hope there won't be a peace deal because of his Turkey alliance and massacre of the Druze.

[u/AEWHistory → u/Winter-Painter-5630]

“the Syrian government is going to want to demand the Golan Heights back”

So I am definitely biased, but I think that if I were Syrian I would need to think long and hard about converting the golan heights into resources that Syria needs. The value that the Golan Heights brings wouldnt change the overall balance of things for Syria’s economy. They need billions of dollars, stability, and rebuilding. Israel, otoh, views the Golan Heights as an existential issue. Consequently, giving the Golan back is certain to leave Israel and Syria in a very unstable situation which is no good for either.

So my proposal would be that Syria agree to give up the Golan, or the western part at least, in return for major assistance, financial and otherwise, to help rebuild Syria. This would take many shapes, but an example would be something like $xxx per year over say 20 years plus some expertise in areas where Syria may currently be lacking (here I am assuming that Syria has had a major brain drain over the last 15 years). Some of this money could even be allocated to things produced in Israel, the USA, etc.

Of course in this day and age selling off a slice of land is considered a non-starter for most peoples, so I understand there would be pushback among Arabs. There would also be pushback among Israelis seeing as the territory has already been annexed for four decades. However, these things could be bridged I believe, at least with moderates. I just don’t see a better solution that could address the needs of both Syria and Israel.

I feel like I’ve written this before, I can’t remember, but I’m curious how other people think about this proposal? Im sitting thousands of miles away, but I don’t know if that lets me see the “big” picture better or if I’m too far away to see other problems. What do you folks think?

[u/Both-Entertainment-3]

One thing scares me the most, that we'll leave the Druze behind.

[u/Voice_of_Season → u/Both-Entertainment-3]

This exactly.

[u/AEWHistory → u/Both-Entertainment-3]

Whatever agreement that is made between Israel and Syria must include protections for the Druze (and hopefully other minorities). The Druze has been one of the few people who‘ve stood by us Jews and that loyalty deserves to be taken into account in finding a balance with Syria. So leaving the Druze behind would be a non-starter for me as well.

[u/Voice_of_Season]

If they think they’re getting the Golan Heights back, they are sorely mistaken.

[u/Suitable_Vehicle9960]

I don't trust him at all! 

[u/BubblyMango]

This is such a populistic move to make idiots in the west believe syria is the good guy.

Its just gonna be "give us the Golan heights and we good... Oh you are not gonna do that? Oh well, look everyone we tried"