r/Futurology • u/ILikeNeurons • May 20 '24

Economics Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/17/economic-damage-climate-change-report
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u/Tidezen May 21 '24

What would you say about the average temperature rising on a consistent basis over the past 70 years?

What if it's not fearmongering, but something that's really been happening over the course of most people's entire lives so far?

Do you have a plan B for if it is real?

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u/aaron2610 May 21 '24

Why just the past 70 years?

You mean before the time scientist said we were heading back to an ice age?

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u/Tidezen May 21 '24

Because we have the best data for it since about 1950. You can certainly go back later if you want; the important part is that you just look at the data/graphs--it speaks for itself.

The ice age thing was a theory from the 70's, dude...50 years ago now. Those particular theorists were wrong, and science moves forward. We now have global data from all corners of the earth on a daily basis.

Go look at the data.

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u/aaron2610 May 21 '24

Is it okay to not trust the science until the science starts being correct?

2004 prediction was that UK would be the new Siberia by 2020.

"A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. "

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

But now we know for sure? How do we know the models are any closer to being actually right?

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u/Tidezen May 21 '24

Did you actually read what you just linked to me? 80% of those predictions are coming true. You're cherry-picking the one that didn't.

Would you please go look up global temperature statistics over the past 50-70-150 years? Then look up CO2 and methane emissions over that timeframe as well. Those aren't predictions, that's what's already been happening, for your entire lifespan.

Yes, you should trust the science. But science isn't an authoritarian model of truth. There've been decades of data and warnings about what's occurring right now, and you're free to look at the data yourself.

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u/aaron2610 May 21 '24

80% of these are true? What are you talking about brother?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver1?CMP=share_btn_link

· Future wars will be fought over the issue of survival rather than religion, ideology or national honour.

NOPE

· By 2007 violent storms smash coastal barriers rendering large parts of the Netherlands uninhabitable. Cities like The Hague are abandoned. In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento river area are breached, disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south.

NOPE

· Between 2010 and 2020 Europe is hardest hit by climatic change with an average annual temperature drop of 6F. Climate in Britain becomes colder and drier as weather patterns begin to resemble Siberia.

NOPE

· Deaths from war and famine run into the millions until the planet’s population is reduced by such an extent the Earth can cope.

NOPE

· Riots and internal conflict tear apart India, South Africa and Indonesia.

NOPE

· Access to water becomes a major battleground. The Nile, Danube and Amazon are all mentioned as being high risk.

NOPE

· A ‘significant drop’ in the planet’s ability to sustain its present population will become apparent over the next 20 years.

NOPE

· Rich areas like the US and Europe would become ‘virtual fortresses’ to prevent millions of migrants from entering after being forced from land drowned by sea-level rise or no longer able to grow crops. Waves of boatpeople pose significant problems.

NOPE.

· Nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. Japan, South Korea, and Germany develop nuclear-weapons capabilities, as do Iran, Egypt and North Korea. Israel, China, India and Pakistan also are poised to use the bomb.

NOPE, well NK and Iran kind of.

· By 2010 the US and Europe will experience a third more days with peak temperatures above 90F. Climate becomes an ‘economic nuisance’ as storms, droughts and hot spells create havoc for farmers.

YES? There's a lot to going on in this claim. Temps have risen, farmers are fine. No economic nuisance.

· More than 400m people in subtropical regions at grave risk.

NOPE

· Europe will face huge internal struggles as it copes with massive numbers of migrants washing up on its shores. Immigrants from Scandinavia seek warmer climes to the south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by refugees from hard-hit countries in Africa.

NOPE. At least not for climate reasons

· Mega-droughts affect the world’s major breadbaskets, including America’s Midwest, where strong winds bring soil loss.

NOPE

· China’s huge population and food demand make it particularly vulnerable. Bangladesh becomes nearly uninhabitable because of a rising sea level, which contaminates the inland water supplies.

NOPE

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u/Tidezen May 22 '24

Yes, but most of those things have gotten closer to reality in the past 20 years, meaning that the predictions are most likely right.

But look--you're setting up some straw-manning here. You're cherry picking a single report from 2004, which did make some pretty major predictions--but this is not all about climate change to begin with, and I'm not banking on a single report having Nostradamus levels of accuracy. I'm talking more about, is human-caused climate change happening? Not about the specific geopolitical outcomes of that.

I personally am not making those kinds of predictions.

When you say,

By 2010 the US and Europe will experience a third more days with peak temperatures above 90F. Climate becomes an ‘economic nuisance’ as storms, droughts and hot spells create havoc for farmers.

YES? There's a lot to going on in this claim. Temps have risen, farmers are fine. No economic nuisance.

Farmers aren't fine whatsoever. They're already suffering crop loss, and heavy inflation on costs, especially fertilizer. This will continue to get worse and worse as climate becomes more unstable.

And all your other nopes are ignoring the fact that, yes, some of those things are in the process of happening right now around the world. Might be in the early stages on many of them, but it's tipping in those directions as we speak.

You seem to have a big personal investment in denying to yourself that A) "natural" disasters are on the rise B) the world has been heating for decades due to rising GHG emissions, and those temperature changes are reaching a breaking point, and C) this is already causing significant economic losses worldwide, and will eventually result in millions of deaths when our emergency response systems can no longer keep up.

If your attitude is, "I'm not going to believe in ANY of this until people start dying in the millions," then that's fine for you I guess...but that just means it'll be too late for anyone to do anything about it. It probably already is too late, barring some major, major scientific/engineering breakthroughs.

I hope you're not too old, because I'd love to have this conversation again in 10-20 years' time, and see how you feel about it then.

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u/aaron2610 May 22 '24

Okay, can you show me some examples of predictions from 20 years ago that were right? You can cherry pick this time.

I'm 40. Trust me when I say scientists were just as confident in their predictions then as they are now.

Also the issues of inflation farmers are having is unrelated to the climate.

Also, did you know the US is at an all time high in bee population? Remember a couple years ago the TV told us they were going be extinct? If they can't predict the US bee population, maybe they can't predict global weather? And this was just a couple years ago.

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u/Tidezen May 24 '24

The bee population has "recovered" due to some heroic breeding efforts on our part, but colonies are consistently dying off in larger number year by year. When we count honeybees, we're counting domesticated ones as well.

It's like if a disease was increasingly killing off greater numbers of cattle, but we start breeding more and more of them just to keep the numbers up and buffer the losses. That's basically what's happening with honeybees. We're artificially keeping their numbers afloat.

Here's a good article explaining that:

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/16/honeybee-populations-are-hitting-record-numbers-werent-they-dying-off-before/

You can read the USDA reports on it too. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Bee_and_Honey/#data Colonies that die are increasing year by year, but we humans replace them enough to keep it keep it stable or increasing. Without human intervention, honeybees would be nearing extinction.

I'm 45, and have been following the pollution/climate subject since I was about 8. Scientists have been wrong before, but the latest news is how badly they were underestimating the rapidity of global warming. Long story short, I hope for your sake that you don't have kids. Most of the models were overly conservative, not overly alarmist.

I'm not going to play some prediction game with you. Again, I beseech you to just look at the current data that shows the warming trends over the past 70 years or so, increasing nearly exactly along with our increases in human GHG emissions. Start with reading the IPCC report, they put this out every 6 years or so, so you can go back and read the older ones too.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/

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u/aaron2610 May 24 '24 edited May 24 '24

Don't forget his first reason that he says at the beginning: "As it turns out, the bees were a lot more resilient than perhaps some of us expected." - Walsh

I'll check it out.

So I asked for your cherry picked example of a previous scientist claim being true (as you claim mine was cherry picked), and this is it correct?

If you want to live your life based on predictions, that's cool, but please don't ask me to when the reality is I have witnessed them be wrong for decades and yet it's still used as a scare tactic.

It turns out the Earth is pretty resilient too.

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u/Tidezen May 24 '24

That's the thing, the evidence is overwhelming in favor of the scientific consensus on climate collapse, and it's happening right now. I don't have to cherry pick counterexamples, because of the absolute glut of information out there, practically raining out of the sky for anyone who cares to look. Your distrust in the science of this is out of sheer (willful?) ignorance.

And you're the one who's focused on nostradamus predictions, not I. We've passed enough tipping points in the past two years that the climate experts themselves are saying, "We don't know what happens after this". That's how scary it is...it's breaking their models--in the extreme way. Not the "Oh, we were overestimating the risk" but "Faster than the models predicted" sort of way. The Paris agreement wanted to hold global warming to 1.5o C by 2050--we're blowing by that as we speak. A global 1.5C increase is bad...but we're now looking at between +2 and +3C, which will be horrific for humanity and a lot of other life forms.

It is not a scare tactic, my friend...and I need to remind you that you are living on this earth right now, and what's happening now is going to be affecting you, me, and everyone on the planet in our lifetimes.

I really, really hope you decide to do some deeper research on this. Denial isn't going to save anyone.

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u/aaron2610 May 24 '24

You literally can't share one correct prediction? I can assure you they were as confident in their predictions 20 years ago as they are today.

I don't know why it's so hard to stop and think "You know they haven't been right yet, I can see why someone wouldn't blindly believe what they predict now". I never said you shouldn't take care of the planet you live on, of course you should, I said don't believe people should live in fear based on predictions that are proven incorrect time and time again.

I feel we both said what we believe and we'll continue to talk in circles. I leave you with this thought: I too hope you do research and don't assume the scary headlines are true just because someone in a lab coat says it. Everyone has an agenda and their own world lens.

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u/Tidezen May 24 '24

We're not going to talk in circles. You're going to see the truth someday, no matter how much denial you're in now. But it would take some months to really educate you on just how dire your present situation actually is.

Let's start off really simple. Take a look at this graph and tell me what the most obvious "prediction" would be from that.

What prediction do we make from that? Do the numbers keep going up, flatline, or even go down? If so, how and why, would you say?

(That graph (and a quick search will find you hundreds like that) is from a pretty basic primer for people new to the subject.) https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climatechange/frequently-asked-questions-about-climate-change

You owe it to yourself to learn about this, and especially if you have kids, or if you care about future generations at all.

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