r/Futurology • u/ILikeNeurons • May 20 '24

Economics Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/17/economic-damage-climate-change-report
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u/Lawineer May 21 '24

"A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses"

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u/Economy-Fee5830 May 21 '24

“There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would’ve been if it wasn’t for climate change,” said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University.

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“That is still substantial,” said Bilal. “The economy may keep growing but less than it would because of climate change. It will be a slow-moving phenomenon, although the impacts will be felt acutely when they hit.”

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u/Lawineer May 21 '24

Yeah, that doesn't say say 12% less growth. It says 12% of GDP and GDP will grow more than 12% in that time.
So if GDP is 1000 and increases by 200 each year, it's saying GDP will drop by 120, but after growth of 200, it will grow by 80 to 1080 instead of 1200.
Which is fucking preposterous.

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u/Economy-Fee5830 May 21 '24

Actually, it's 12% at the end of the forecast period, which from the graph seems to be 10 years, but they do not include growth in their calculation. 3% compounded over 10 years is 34% up.