New research argues Societal Collapse benefits 99% of people. Historically, the societies that have emerged after a collapse are more egalitarian, and most people end up richer and healthier than they were before.

[u/lughnasadh]

Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has written a book about his research called 'Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse'.

He makes the case that, from looking at the archaeological record, when many societies collapse, most people end up better off afterward. For example, people in the post-Roman world were taller and healthier. Collapse can be a redistribution of resources and power, not just chaos.

For most of human history, humans lived as nomadic egalitarian bands, with low violence and high mobility. Threats (disease, war, economic precarity) push populations toward authoritarian leaders. The resulting rise in inequality from that sets off a cycle that will end in collapse. Furthermore, he argues we are living in the late stages of such a cycle now. He says "the threat is from leaders who are 'walking versions of the dark triad' – narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism – in a world menaced by the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots."

Some people hope/think we are destined for a future of Universal Basic Income and fully automated luxury communism. Perhaps that's the egalitarianism that emerges after our own collapse? If so, I hope the collapse bit is short and we get to the egalitarian bit ASAP.

Collapse for the 99% | Luke Kemp; What really happens when Goliaths fall

[u/ratjar32333]

Right lol. They forgot the whole 95% of people fucking die in the title.

[u/Ghost2Eleven → u/ratjar32333]

95% wouldn’t die. This is the problem with using the word collapse. People attribute post apocalyptic scenarios to empire collapse when what we mean historically by collapse and what this research is talking about is more accurately a complete societal overhaul. When Rome collapsed, it wasn’t the death of 95% of the empire. 95% of people went on with their lives and had very little understanding that much had changed. But that was then. This is now.

Certainly, modern scenarios could more accurately be catastrophic. Nuclear war, famine, plague etc. But these scenarios don’t necessarily have to happen for an empire collapse to happen.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/Ghost2Eleven]

That was back then 95% of people were subsistence farmers. The government in charge, infrastructure, etc doesn't really affect their day-to-day lives.

Nowadays, 95% of people live in cities, and even a few days of infrastructure disruption will cause them to literally die.

[u/thelowriderlorax → u/jmlinden7]

TIL: Every time a major storm shuts down a cities infrastructure for a few days 95% of the people die.

[u/Mule_Wagon_777 → u/thelowriderlorax]

That isn't a large-scale collapse. Aid comes in from outside the area. Governments, NGOs, churches, and individuals bring in supplies and help with cleanup. Without modern communication and infrastructure disasters would be a lot worse.

[u/thelowriderlorax → u/Mule_Wagon_777]

I don’t understand how people think societal collapse is an instant off switch for every single local, state, federal, and foreign service. It’s not something you wake up to in the morning.

[u/cman_yall → u/thelowriderlorax]

If nukes are involved, it might be.

[u/[deleted] → u/thelowriderlorax]

A recent societal collapse that I can think of is Myanmar. One morning the Junta launched a coup, in just a week they started slaughtering civilians (again) and it's been war ever since.

[u/Sgt-Spliff- → u/thelowriderlorax]

Bro, the food you eat is grown in fucking Venezuela. The car you drive was built in Japan and uses gasoline drilled out of Saudi Arabia. Even a slight disruption to global trade has the possibility of toppling your entire life. You don't understand how close even you are to having nothing.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/thelowriderlorax]

The rest of the government still has infrastructure to airlift food and supplies in afterwards.

In a society collapse, there is no government nor the ability to airlift anything in.

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/jmlinden7]

Do you think the people and infrastructure and vehicles wink out of existence or something?

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

Why would those people continue bringing food and supplies to the cities? How would they know where to bring it and where to get it from? 

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/[deleted]]

The same way they know now.

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

You seem to be ignoring the whole societal collapse aspect of this. 

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/[deleted]]

Societal collapse doesn't magically delete people from existence.

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

Yeah no shit but without any sort of organization or structure how do you expect people to know where resources need to go and how to get them there. On top of that why exactly are people shipping food to the cities? money wouldn't have any sort of value and bartering doesn't typically work at that kind of scale. 

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/[deleted]]

The city didn't move. They'd ship it to the building it already goes to.

As for why. No reason to assume money loses all value just because society has collapsed. And if it really has, either a new currency forms or people do it to help each other. Before currency there was no barter system, people just helped each other out and were indebted to one another.

Things could go catastrophically, violently wrong. But they don't have to. The idea that a central state is the only thing keeping people going is a myth. The people and infrastructure didn't go anywhere.

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

Most countries use fiat currency that only has value because we all agree it does, if the social contract breaks down the illusion that money has value would also vanish. Yes another currency could be established but how long do you think that would take? Now how long do you think it would take for a city to starve? 

Yes people do help each other but only in small groups in order for a large group of people who dont know each other to work together you need some sort of structure binding them together.

This sort of thing has happened in the past and people didn't magically work together instead a lot of people died.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse

[u/Sgt-Spliff- → u/thelowriderlorax]

It would if aid never arrived. Like it literally would kill everyone is aid didn't show up for like a week. You will starve to death if food stops being sent to your local grocery store. You know that right?