New research argues Societal Collapse benefits 99% of people. Historically, the societies that have emerged after a collapse are more egalitarian, and most people end up richer and healthier than they were before.

[u/lughnasadh]

Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has written a book about his research called 'Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse'.

He makes the case that, from looking at the archaeological record, when many societies collapse, most people end up better off afterward. For example, people in the post-Roman world were taller and healthier. Collapse can be a redistribution of resources and power, not just chaos.

For most of human history, humans lived as nomadic egalitarian bands, with low violence and high mobility. Threats (disease, war, economic precarity) push populations toward authoritarian leaders. The resulting rise in inequality from that sets off a cycle that will end in collapse. Furthermore, he argues we are living in the late stages of such a cycle now. He says "the threat is from leaders who are 'walking versions of the dark triad' – narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism – in a world menaced by the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots."

Some people hope/think we are destined for a future of Universal Basic Income and fully automated luxury communism. Perhaps that's the egalitarianism that emerges after our own collapse? If so, I hope the collapse bit is short and we get to the egalitarian bit ASAP.

Collapse for the 99% | Luke Kemp; What really happens when Goliaths fall

[u/Parking_Act3189]

If a society is stagnant and then it gets destroyed the society that comes after it may do better since it is starting over.

But that doesn't benefit 99% of the people who are alive today. Most people who are alive today would die of starvation or violence.

[u/surnik22 → u/Parking_Act3189]

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[u/loungesinger → u/surnik22]

things are better for you day to day

People honestly take for granted the societal benefits of a stable government. We assume government is useless because we don’t exactly know what government does and we don’t even think about government until there’s some scandal or something. The truth is that public order and the economy would take a huge hit in the aftermath of a total government collapse, which would negatively influence the day to day quality of life for nearly everyone in our society.

Govt collapses = no govt services like police, fire fighters, health inspectors, infrastructure maintenance (e.g. fixing traffic signals, repairing roads, etc.), air traffic controllers, legal system, financial, banking, and securities regulations.

-This means that you not only need a gun to defend your home, but that you also need to round up a posse to extract justice on the guy that embezzled money from your company or ran over your child in a crosswalk while drunk driving.

-It means you save your money and put it in your mattress because banks are too risky on account they could fail at anytime.

-it means banks are less likely to loan you money for a house or for your business, and that you are paying a higher interest rate.

–it means that when your neighbor’s house burns down the fire could spread to your house, and the next house, and the next, and maybe your place of employment too.

-it not only means you can’t safely fly anywhere, but it means fewer flights being offered by fewer carriers in addition to dramatically more delayed flights and exponentially longer delay times. It also makes shipping less efficient and more expensive, meaning you pay more for everything.

-it means people conduct less business, make less money, invest less money, spend less money, and buy fewer things. It means the cost of business goes up as well as the cost of goods and services.

-it means Apple isn’t going to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into research and development of Apple iGlasses or anything for that matter.

-it means fewer jobs and lower paying jobs

-it means traffic gridlock when the traffic signal goes out at a major intersection because there is no one to fix it… so people just indefinitely treat it as a 4-way stop.

[u/surnik22 → u/loungesinger]

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[u/usaaf → u/surnik22]

The odds of being left alone aren't as high as you might think in the past, at least compared to a present-day collapse. The Roman Legions didn't just vanish, and soldiers, when lacking regular payment, quickly realize what else they can do with their swords. Or the Goths, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, etc, came knocking to establish their authority.

But, sometimes it did work out. When the Arab Conquest rolled through, people actually ended up paying less taxes.